The Scary Ways the Ukraine War Could End

Key Points – The Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fourth year, presents four primary end scenarios.

-A “frozen conflict” like the Korean War might stabilize current lines but risks future Russian aggression without strong Western security guarantees for Ukraine.

-Continued “attritional warfare” favors Russia due to its larger manpower pool and domestic narrative control. A decisive “Russian victory” would likely mean Ukrainian regime change, demilitarization, and territorial losses.

-Conversely, a “Ukrainian victory” involving significant territorial recapture is improbable without risking Russian escalation, potentially including tactical nuclear use or attacks on Baltic states.

-A negotiated settlement remains elusive due to irreconcilable core objectives.

How Does The Russia-Ukraine War End?

An invasion that Russia thought would be over in a few days has now stretched into its fourth year. And there doesn’t appear to be any end in sight. The United States and Europe are attempting to develop a peace proposal that would be acceptable to all parties, but they are unable to agree on its specific terms.

Are there any chances for a lasting ceasefire or peace through negotiations? While some propose a negotiated end through direct talks between Russia and Ukraine, this is a complex process, according to the BBC. Ukraine may prioritize securing its territorial integrity and seeking Western security guarantees.

But first, to the root of the problem.

Why Did Russia Invade Ukraine?

The war didn’t begin with Russia’s invasion in February 2022; it started nearly a decade before. Putin seized Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula eight years earlier, in 2014,  after a revolution that ousted Ukraine’s pro-Russian president and replaced him with a more pro-Western government.

Then came the thinly disguised invasion of the Donbas by “little green men” that Putin immediately recognized as an independent state. Putin thought that his invasion or “special military operation” would be over in a few days, vastly underestimating the will of Ukraine to resist, and overestimating his army’s prowess on a modern battlefield.

Putin gave a bellicose speech on TV, declaring his goal was to “demilitarize and denazify” Ukraine. He has kept the ridiculous pretense that the Ukrainian government was full of Nazis and drug addicts. He stated that Ukraine had never been a sovereign state; it was an artificial construct made by the Soviets in 1917.

What it boiled down to was that Putin didn’t want NATO and freedom on his doorstep. That’s why Ukraine IS an existential threat to Russia in Putin’s eyes and always will be.

Four Possible Scenarios For How The War Will End

With the war currently locked in a stalemate after more than three bloody years of war, it can end in four distinct ways.

Frozen conflict (Similar to the Korean War) – An armistice that would stabilize the front lines close to where it is currently.

This would not bode well for Ukraine in the long term, as unless it receives security from the West, it would likely result in another Russian invasion once its strength is restored.

Continued Attritional (Long) War – A continuation of the attritional conflict that tests each side’s limits. This favors Russia in the long term, as it has a significantly larger number of military-age men and women than Ukraine does.

Plus, the fact that Putin controls the media in Russia means that nothing gets released without his approval. He controls the narrative. Any media member or civilian calling the war anything but a special military operation risks prison.

Victory for Russia  –  Russia eventually wears down Ukraine’s forces and defenses. Moscow would then dictate the terms of the peace (surrender) of the Ukrainian troops.

For Kyiv, this means a change of government, demilitarization, neutrality, and territorial losses. Moscow would swallow them up.

Victory for Ukraine – The Ukrainian military pushes Russia back to the boundaries of February 2022 or even further, possibly even parts of Crimea.

This means that the Russian military would collapse on the Western front, which is not a great thing in certain aspects. It is doubtful Putin would allow this to happen. He’d never let his special military operation fail. He’d be forced to confront the elephant in the room.

Nukes Or Invasion of the Baltic States?

He’s twirled the nuclear saber since the autumn of 2022. Would he use tactical nukes to restore his lines? That’s the worst possible outcome. But in doing so, he’d nuke civilians he claims are Russian citizens.

MORE: A Nuclear War over Ukraine? 

Russia has over 1,500 strategic nukes and about 4,000 other nukes, and even a tactical nuke could ignite a firestorm that could engulf more than half the world.

This type of behavior by Putin was what forced several former Warsaw Pact countries to seek NATO membership. But Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are still legitimate targets if Putin feels he can seize them quickly before NATO can react.

Can Ukraine “Win” Against Russia

Without intelligence and military support from the US, the “most likely” outcome for Ukraine is that it will have to cede territory to Russia.

At this point, the idea that Ukraine could somehow retake Crimea and Donetsk is “almost hard to imagine,” said Lucian Kim, a former Moscow-based correspondent for NPR and Bloomberg.

Moscow and its allies of convenience, China, Iran, and North Korea view the war as a proxy war against the US. If Washington washes its hands of the conflict, how will they react? North Korea has already sent soldiers and China observers, as I learned last week. And Ukraine has the proof.

Two prominent Russian political figures, Ramzan Kadyrov and Yevgeny Prigozhin, tried to become major players in the war. Prigozhin, who led the shadow army known as the Wagner Group, tried to take on Putin and paid for it with his life.

Kadyrov from Chechnya personally led his thuggish troops in battle. Still, they were more successful in terrorizing an unarmed civilian population in Ukraine than they were at taking out Ukrainian troops.

US and Europe Differ On How Each Wants The War To End

Reuters highlighted the differences between the US and European peace proposals.

While the US reportedly foresees full US recognition of Crimea and “de facto” recognition of some other Ukrainian regions seized by Russia, the European text simply says “territorial issues” should be “resolved after a full and unconditional ceasefire.”

MORE: What if Ukraine Had Nuclear Weapons?

Europe wants a security guarantee for Ukraine, similar to NATO Article Five. The US, however, states that Ukraine “will not seek to join NATO” and only affirms that Ukraine will receive a “robust security guarantee.”

The Most Likely Outcome?

A negotiated settlement is unlikely to work. Russia (Putin) won’t accept a free and truly independent Ukraine on its border. That could incite regime change in Russia. And even if that were possible, it would more likely be Putin 2.0 than a democratic Russian nation.

The Ukrainians will not accept further carving up of their nation.

The continued attrition war scenario, sadly, will probably be the way this war will continue. Neither side has the ability currently to win the war. And it continues to be a meat grinder for the troops fighting.

About the Author

Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.

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