Key Points – Despite frequent nuclear threats from Vladimir Putin since the Ukraine war began, including a November 2024 lowering of Russia’s nuclear use threshold, actual employment of such weapons remains highly doubtful.
-Western leaders and analysts largely view these pronouncements as psychological warfare intended to coerce and deter support for Ukraine, a bluff that has been repeatedly called as aid continues and Ukrainian strikes reach Russian territory.
-While Putin states Russia is “technically ready” for nuclear war, he also sees no current need in Ukraine. The catastrophic consequences for Russia itself in any nuclear exchange serve as the ultimate deterrent against such escalation.
Would Putin Go Nuclear Over Ukraine?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has rattled his nuclear saber quite often since the war in Ukraine started, and as he keeps repeating it, it seems less likely to occur. He keeps repeating it, trying to unnerve the West, but it has had the opposite effect.
In November of last year, Putin tried lowering the bar for the use of nuclear weapons, but the West didn’t flinch.
Putin’s lowering of the threshold of Russia’s nuclear doctrine appeared to be a thinly veiled threat to the United States and NATO over their ramped-up support for Ukraine.
Russia’s nuclear doctrine now includes a change that allows for Moscow to launch a nuclear strike if attacked by a non-nuclear country, such as Ukraine, that is supported by a nuclear state, such as the U.S. It was formally approved the same day that Kyiv used its first U.S.-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles against Russia.
Contrary To Popular Belief, The West Has Called His Bluff
Up to this point, the West has been operating just below this threshold. Through these calculated moves, Western allies continually test Russia’s red lines, gradually eroding the credibility and effectiveness of Moscow’s deterrence without triggering a confrontation.
Former Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told NBC News that he saw no indication that Moscow is imminently intent on using nuclear weapons.
“I don’t see a change in their strategic force posture and so we’ll continue to remain vigilant in this regard,” he said.
“He has rattled his nuclear saber quite a bit and this is dangerous behavior,” Austin said of Putin.
Rishi Paul said, “In Putin’s view, nuclear threats serve as instruments of deterrence and psychological warfare, calculated to pressure opponents while avoiding outright use.”
And Putin’s bluff was called again when the US gave Zelensky permission to launch US-made missiles into Russia. But Putin persists with the rattling of his nuclear saber.
Putin Warns Russia is Ready For Nuclear War:
Putin told the West last year that Russia was technically ready for nuclear war and that if the U.S. sent troops to Ukraine, it would be considered a significant escalation of the conflict. Meanwhile, the US has never said it would send US troops to Ukraine.
Putin added that the nuclear war scenario was not “rushing” up and he saw no need for the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. “From a military-technical point of view, we are, of course, ready,” Putin,said to Rossiya-1 television and news agency RIA when asked whether Russia was really ready for a nuclear war.
Putin said the U.S. understood that if it deployed American troops on Russian territory – or to Ukraine – Russia would treat the move as an intervention.
“Therefore, I don’t think that here everything is rushing to it (nuclear confrontation), but we are ready for this.” This sent no one rushing to air raid shelters in the US or elsewhere.
But The Scenario Can’t Be Entirely Ignored
Joe Biden two years ago said what some people were feeling when Putin was first threatening the use of nukes against the West.
“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis. . . . He’s not joking when he talks about the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons, or biological or chemical weapons, because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming.”
Putin accused Ukraine of planning a “dirty bomb” attack several times and put his nuclear forces on “high alert” in the early stages of the war. He then said he’d place nuclear weapons in Belarus.
In early May he once again felt the need to start the rhetoric again. In a television special about his 25 years in power, Putin said, “There has been no need to use those (nuclear) weapons … and I hope they will not be required.”
“We have enough strength and means to bring what was started in 2022 to a logical conclusion with the outcome Russia requires,” he said.
Will Putin revert to nukes in Ukraine or elsewhere? Very doubtful. He’s trying to threaten and coerce nations to bend to his will. His army has proven to be a shell of what it was deemed to be. If the war turns on Russia, and his troops are facing a rout would be the only way he would consider it.
And if the ultimate nightmare comes true, the West would be largely destroyed, but would survive. Russia would not. And Putin knows this.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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