Gulf States Consider Future Priorities Amid Growing Regional Destabilization – It’s been almost 200 days since the United States and Israel launched a major military operation against Iran.
The initial six weeks of heavy fighting, followed by months of economic warfare, have reshaped the Middle East. Regional allies, many of whom have sought to avoid the conflict, have been targeted by Iran and its proxy militias.
Iran’s Drones That Russia Is Using. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Iran F-14 Tomcat Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Alas, the strategic priorities of the Gulf states – many of whom have been dragged into the conflict – are changing.
A Change in Thinking
For decades, the Gulf states have depended on the U.S. for regional security. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, has enjoyed close ties with the U.S. over a shared distrust of Iran since 1981. For many Middle Eastern monarchies, a U.S. guarantor has long eased stability concerns.
However, the war’s onset is changing regional perceptions. When Operation Epic Fury was launched back in February, the Gulf states, much like the rest of the world, were taken by surprise. Unable to reach the U.S. mainland, Tehran retaliated by striking U.S. bases across the Middle East. The Gulf states may not have been active belligerents in the conflict, but their territory soon became targeted.
Not the Closest of Friends
“My enemy’s enemy is my best friend” is perhaps the best metaphor for the region. The shared distrust of Iran unifies the GCC, but disagreements have often been public. A unified stance, even in the face of conflict, has been difficult for the GCC to achieve, particularly in relation to foreign policy.
Consider the different approaches each monarchy has used regarding foreign policy. Oman, keen to preserve its status as a regional moderator, differs from Saudi Arabia – a country that is once again engaged in conflict with the Houthis in Yemen. Qatar, another historical mediator, has come under criticism for hosting Hamas and the Taliban while preserving communications lines with Tehran. The UAE, meanwhile, has taken a more isolationist stance within the union, emphasizing the importance of self-defense.
There has always been an element of friction within the GCC. In 2017, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE cut diplomatic ties with Qatar due to its alleged “embrace of various terrorist and sectarian groups aimed at destabilizing the region.” They were not restored for three and a half years.
A More Unionized Union?
The Iran war has brought more aligned thinking to the Middle East. The threat of Tehran remains more prevalent, and the U.S. – now disrupting regional stability rather than maintaining it – is no longer the dependable guarantor it once was.
Considering that diplomatic relations were only restored five years ago, it’s intriguing to see the closer strategic alignment between Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The latter’s communications channels – once the reason for its isolation from its neighbors – have proved useful in limiting escalation throughout the conflict, with even Riyadh recognizing the benefit of mediation over action.
The UAE differs. And it is a sign of how the GCC fails to create a unified foreign policy. It’s struck Iran directly in the war, even though it continues to trade with it. This, as well as the UAE’s high-profile exit from the oil cartel OPEC, has been carried out without consultation with Saudi Arabia.
Complex Arrangements
There’s broad agreement on the problems facing the Middle East, even if solutions are less aligned.
Recognizing that something needed to be done, Saudi Arabia signed a NATO-style defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan where an attack on one nation is seen as an attack on all. For Riyadh, it’s an additional layer of security, with less reliance on the U.S. and less need for joined-up thinking with Gulf neighbors to protect regional stability.
It’s perhaps a sign of what’s to come in the Middle East: a complex web of overlapping agreements which provides additional security. The GCC’s history suggests that a united Gulf approach may never materialize, but where there is agreement, each member can work towards its own solution to the shared problem of Tehran.
It couldn’t come at a more pressing time. Stability is volatile in the region, with no end in sight for the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. The wider ramifications of this ongoing campaign are being felt across the Gulf states, who are now realizing they’ll need to do something about it.
About the Author: Shay Bottomley
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist. He has written for the Western Standard, Business Insider, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo.
