Key Points – President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which recently passed the House, is structured to create a “Total Tax Cliff” at the end of his term in 2028.
-The bill makes the 2017 tax cuts “permanent” but schedules several other tax breaks—including boosts to the standard deduction, child tax credit, and tax-free tips—to expire.
-Republican budget hawks like Rep. Chip Roy have criticized this as a “gimmick” that obscures the bill’s true long-term cost, which the CBO projects will add $2.4 trillion to the deficit.
-This sets up a major fiscal showdown for Trump’s successor, mirroring the “fiscal cliff” of the Obama era.
Donald Trump Could Create Total Tax Cliff
Those who followed the Obama Administration likely remember “the fiscal cliff.” That was the moment, in early 2013, when both the Bush tax cuts and the spending cuts in the Budget Control Act of 2011 were scheduled to expire at the same time. The crisis was averted on New Year’s Day in 2013, with the passage of emergency legislation.
Now, with Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” winding through Congress, there’s the potential of something similar, which will hit right at the end of Trump’s term in office.
According to The Hill, the bill is laying the groundwork for a “Total Tax Cliff,” in which tax cut measures geared towards lower-income Americans will expire at the end of 2028, coinciding with the end of Trump’s term. The 2017 Trump tax cuts, however, would be made “permanent” by the House version of the bill.
Therefore, not only will what to do about the taxes come up in the 2028 presidential election, but leave the next president with a difficult problem to solve.
“The major expiring tax breaks in the House-passed version of Republicans’ domestic agenda bill are boosts in the standard deduction, the deduction for seniors, and the child tax credit, along with the cancellation of taxes on tips, overtime pay, and car loan interest,” The Hill said.
Hawks Against the Cliff
It is Republican budget hawks, rather than Democrats, who have coined the term “tax cliff.”
“There’s a total tax cliff in there. There’s about $1.5 trillion worth of taxes that expire in four years, five years, which means what? In five years, they’ll just keep them going. This is why we end up with the same problem,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) told The Hill. “It is 100 percent a gimmick to have tax cuts that you’re putting in place for four or five years.”
Roy is part of the group of hardliners who threatened to sink the measure in talks. Despite some complaints, Roy voted for the House version of the Big Beautiful Bill.
Will the Cuts Survive?
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act, which contains most of the Trump Administration’s major legislative priorities, passed the House by a single vote and is now in the Senate, where the version that got through the House will almost certainly not pass. Whether any version that passes the Senate can then get through the House is another question to be answered in the coming weeks.
Will the “tax cliff” Make it into the Senate Bill?
“The general feeling of Senate Finance is the TCJA — we need to make that permanent. We need to make the business provisions — the expensing, the R&D provisions — we need to make those permanent. The other things, I think we should discuss it,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) told The Hill.
Johnson added that he would prefer to make all of the tax cuts permanent.
“They’re doing that for only four years, and all of a sudden that stops? I’m not real high on tax policy that expires,” the Wisconsin senator told The Hill.
Trump, on the campaign trail, made various promises about tax cuts, including “no tax on tips,” making car loan interest tax-deductible, and other things.
What About the Deficit?
The Congressional Budget Office said last week that the Trump bill would add $2.4 trillion to the deficit over the next ten years. Worries about the debt were at the heart of the high-profile break earlier this month between Trump and Elon Musk, his former “special government employee.”
Republicans, however, have been undaunted, with some questioning the accuracy of the CBO’s score.
“All the talk about how this bill is going to generate an increase in our deficit is absolutely wrong,” Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo told the press, according to Reuters.
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter
