Key Points – The question of Ukraine’s potential NATO membership remains a central, contentious issue in its ongoing war with Russia.
-Moscow has consistently cited NATO expansion towards its borders as a primary justification for the 2022 invasion, viewing it as a fundamental security threat.
-While NATO condemns Russia’s aggression and provides unprecedented support for Ukraine’s self-defense, it has avoided direct military intervention due to the implications of Article 5.
-Ukraine’s path to NATO membership appears blocked for the foreseeable future, as the alliance is unlikely to admit a nation actively at war with a nuclear power or with unresolved territorial disputes.
Ukraine and NATO: Could Membership Happen?
The question of whether Ukraine will ever join NATO is, in some ways, at the heart of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Ever since the end of the Cold War and the breakup of the Soviet Union, the big question has been whether Ukraine will align more closely with the West, and or with Russia. It has gone back and forth over the years, leading up to the election in 2019 of the pro-Western President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Ukraine has never joined NATO, although it has cooperated and allied with the alliance, which has backed it after Russia invaded.
Russia’s line, throughout the war, has been that it is opposed to having a hostile defensive alliance on its borders, and that invading Ukraine was a way to avoid that.
After all, NATO’s Article 5 means that the rest of NATO must defend any NATO country from invasion, meaning that had Ukraine been part of NATO in 2022, the rest of NATO, including the U.S., would have been obligated to go to war against Russia.
A Declaration of War
In February of 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin blamed NATO’s expansion.
“We are talking about what causes us particular concern and anxiety, about those fundamental threats that year after year, step by step, are rudely and unceremoniously created by irresponsible politicians in the West in relation to our country,” Putin said in his declaration of war. “I mean the expansion of the Nato bloc to the east, bringing its military infrastructure closer to Russian borders.”
“It is well known that for 30 years we have persistently and patiently tried to reach an agreement with the leading Nato countries on the principles of equal and indivisible security in Europe. In response to our proposals, we constantly faced either cynical deception and lies, or attempts to pressure and blackmail, while the North Atlantic Alliance, in the meantime, despite all our protests and concerns, is steadily expanding. The military machine is moving and, I repeat, is coming close to our borders.”
Instead, War
“NATO condemns in the strongest possible terms Russia’s brutal and unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine – which is an independent, peaceful and democratic country, and a close NATO partner,” NATO said in its statement after the initial invasion. “NATO and Allies continue to provide Ukraine with unprecedented levels of support, helping to uphold its fundamental right to self-defence.”
For over three years, Russia has been at war in Ukraine, with other members of NATO, the U.S. included, stepping in to deliver aid and weapons to Ukraine.
One possible compromise to end the war, as pointed out by Foreign Affairs, would involve Ukraine agreeing to remain neutral and agree to not join NATO, in exchange for security guarantees. This has been a demand of the Russians, although it has not resulted in a ceasefire or the end of the war.
Foreign Affairs also pointed out how the failed talks went in Istanbul in 2022.
“The Kremlin insisted on Ukraine renouncing NATO membership, never hosting foreign forces or exercises involving foreign forces on its territory, and accepting some limits on the size and structure of its military,” the piece said.”Kyiv, for its part, wanted no restrictive caps on its forces and was focused on obtaining security guarantees from its Western partners—and the implicit acceptance by the Kremlin that these powers would come to Ukraine’s defense were Moscow to once again launch an attack.”
How Ukraine Can Join NATO: Beat Russia
Probably the only scenario in which Ukraine could become a member of NATO is if NATO insisted on it, mid-war, and that hasn’t happened yet, and is unlikely to now that there’s such a push to end the war. Or, Ukraine could win the war decisively and join NATO afterward.
But once again, that has not happened and almost certainly will not anytime soon.
About the Author:
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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