Key Points – Calls are growing within the US Air Force and Congress to increase the procurement of B-21 Raider stealth bombers beyond the current minimum of 100, with figures like 145 being supported by senior generals like STRATCOM Chief Cotton and AFGSC Chief Bussiere due to global threats from Russia and China.
-Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Allvin recently stated he would “take all I can get” with more funding.
-Cost overruns in the B-52J radar modernization program, which triggered a Nunn-McCurdy breach, could potentially free up funds for more B-21s, an idea backed by Senator Mike Rounds.
What Is the Correct Number of B-21 Raider Bombers to Be Built?
The B-21 Raider program may receive an infusion of funds. This increase may come in the form of an additional acquisition of stealth bombers. There could be a re-programming of money from the B-52J upgrade project that is undergoing cost overruns and schedule slips.
This would enable the Air Force to buy more B-21s than originally forecast. Re-allocating the funds is just fine with one United States senator and the Air Force chief of staff, who is open to the B-21 receiving more funding.
Mike Rounds, a senator and champion for the B-21, thinks this would be a good idea and a correct solution to fix the troubled B-52J refurbishment, which calls for new engines and radars.
Rounds questioned Air Force Chief of Staff General David W. Allvin in a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on May 20.
Air Force Chief of Staff Will Take All the Money He Can Get for the B-21
If the B-52J modernization program “goes worse than we hope, then we would need more” money for B-21s, Allvin told Rounds. When the senator asked if the Air Force’s plan for B-21s was “anywhere close” to what the Air Force wanted, Allvin said he would “take all I can get with the funding,” though he did not say how many more B-21s he wanted.
What About ‘Raiding’ B-52J Funds?
All 76 B-52Js are going through a modernization process that will replace their engines and pylons under the aegis of the “Commercial Engine Replacement Program.” New radar and communications systems are part of the “Radar Modernization Program.” This work is supposed to be done within the next five years, but there have been problems.
The Radar Modernization Program has incurred a Nunn-McCurdy breach, which means the acquisition personnel must notify Congress in writing and oral testimony of a significant cost overrun. Since the radar replacement cost is 15 percent higher than initially forecasted, the breach is considered “significant.”
Meanwhile, the B-21 Program Is Meeting Expectations
On the other hand, Allvin told senators in the hearing that the B-21 has gone “pretty well” in its test and evaluation period. He also believes the bomber has an “incredible capability.”
The chief of staff emphasized that 100 B-21s is a minimum that he “can stand behind.” With more than 100 stealth bombers, the general thought it necessary to analyze the required extra time and funds.
Let’s Get 145 B-21 Raider Bombers
Other US Strategic Command and Air Force Global Strike Command leaders have stated they would be happier with 145 B-21s. One general thinks building at least seven or eight bombers yearly would be needed to hit goals.
Air Force General Anthony Cotton, chief of Strategic Command, believes that since Russia could threaten its NATO neighbors with an attack and China could take over Taiwan more, B-21s are needed.
Another general, speaking to Rounds in a different subcommittee hearing on strategic readiness, pointed out that the B-21 would be the answer to thwarting nuclear-power countries. General Thomas A. Bussiere echoed Cotton and said the Air Force would be happy with 145 B-21 bombers.
“I support assessing the production increase from 100 to 145,” Bussiere said. “But I think the real question for the Department [of Defense] and the nation is, what’s the right mix of long-range strike platforms versus other strike platforms? It’s a reasonable question the nation has asked several times in the last year or two,” Bussiere said.
I have written about re-programming funds from the B-52J modernization effort to another program. The B-52J needs a considerable upgrade, but instead of working to replace radars and engines on all airplanes, half could receive the new additions, and the rest of the money could be spent on the B-21.
The Chinese Fear the B-52 the Most
However, the B-52 has received some favorable news coverage lately. A report on a simulation conducted by a group of Chinese researchers at a military think tank noted that China’s biggest strategic fear is a nuclear strike from a B-52. With the new radar and engines, the B-52 could be that much more lethal.
So, it may be better to play wait and see. Let’s reserve judgment until the B-52J upgrade program has a chance to reduce prices and devise a time frame for replacement that is more optimal. Go for 100 B-21s first and look at the geopolitical environment and see how it changes in the future to analyze just how much of a threat Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are. Examine how much technology has progressed. It is better sometimes to keep production lines operating at a manageable level to keep technology from advancing beyond the capabilities of the original airframe.
For example, we don’t know how much the tech behind hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing will progress in the next ten years. If the B-21 is still superior to those advancements at the end of the initial production run, perhaps another 45 could be built.
All in all, this is good news for the B-21 program. A leader in the Senate is pushing for more airplanes, and at least two Air Force generals are calling for additional units to be built. As long as it keeps receiving good grades for flight testing and is on schedule and under-budget, the future looks bright for the B-21. That has US rivals seething that they would have to deal with another Air Force strategic stealth bomber that can attack anywhere at any time.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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