Ukraine has found a way to strangle Russia until it cries for mercy.
The biggest Ukrainian drone attack in two years happened overnight on July 6 against civilian targets in Moscow.
A U.S. M1A1 Abrams tank needed for training the Armed Forces of Ukraine awaits offloading at Grafenwoehr, Germany, May 14, 2023. The M1A1 training is expected to last several weeks and will include live fire, crew qualification, maneuver, and maintainer training. Armed Forces of Ukraine training is conducted by 7th Army Training Command at Grafenwoehr and Hohenfels training areas in Germany on behalf of U.S. Army Europe and Africa. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Christian Carrillo)
Over 430 drones were launched from Ukraine to menace the capital.
Russia said that it eliminated all the loitering munitions, but this operation by Ukraine showed that Kyiv will continue to attack Russia’s major cities without let-up.
In a statement on Telegram, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said “most” of the unmanned aircraft were “neutralized by air defense forces on distant approaches.”
He said 36 drones with a direct course for Moscow were “destroyed,” according to the Moscow Times.
No Area Is Safe from Ukrainian Drones
Moscow has four main airports, and new flights were restricted Monday night. About 20 other drones from Ukraine targeted Crimea and other cities in Russia during the attack.
Image Credit: Office the the President, Ukraine.
In the Kaluga region southwest of Moscow, drones hit an industrial park, the governor said.
There was also another group of missile strikes from Ukraine that killed at least one person in the southwestern Belgorod region. Cities there suffered an electrical blackout and water supply disruptions.
Zelensky Has Seized the Initiative
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thinks his military can continue these strikes every night. He is convinced that civilian attacks with drones can win the war, and no stoppage is planned.
Ukraine has shown that its indigenous drone industry has been instrumental in showing Vladimir Putin that no city is safe in Russia.
“When it is no longer one hundred drones but one thousand flying towards Moscow… [Putin will understand,” Zelensky said.
“Once he begins to feel it personally, once he begins to see it with his own eyes, you will see advisers urging him to relocate somewhere beyond the Urals,” the Ukrainian president added.
“The farther Putin is from Moscow, the closer the end of the war will be.”
Leading the World In Drone Production
Ukraine is now a “drone superpower.” The country has used one-way unmanned craft to punish Russian energy infrastructure. There are now mass gasoline shortages across the country, and Russian citizens are frustrated as they wait in long fuel lines.
Ukraine has around 500 companies that produce these attack craft. “Ukrainian engineers work alongside combat units, receiving live performance data and returning modified systems to the frontline within weeks,” according to Just Security.
Patriotic Duty to Construct Drones
People who cannot fight at the front are attracted to the drone industry, with multiple workers seeking this kind of patriotic activity to establish a winning formula for the Ukrainian war effort.
Drone War Is Negatively Affecting Russian Resupply Operations
Ukraine’s battlefield use of loitering munitions has been especially successful. The defenders can strike deep into Russian territory to punish their logistical train.
Russian soldiers working in the rear echelons to provide food and ammunition to fighters at the front are being mowed down mercilessly.
Russia now has to send more assets to the rear to make up for losses. The invaders are not accustomed to such a marauding force threatening resupply efforts.
Ukrainian drones have caused 75 to 85 percent of the Russian casualties during the war, according to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
Making the Fog of War Thicker
“By striking electronic warfare and radar sites, Ukraine is increasing the fog of war for Russian forces—denying them access to information and the capacity to stop attacks.
Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted Novorossiysk and other rear-area logistics nodes, compounding pressure on Russian supply lines,” CFR wrote.
Integrating AI to Make Autonomous Drones
Ukraine is also using artificial intelligence to make its drones more autonomous. This helps increase the number of kamikaze craft, maximizing damage to Russia.
Some of Ukraine’s best minds are working in drone manufacturing, and Zelensky is confident he has found the best plan of action against Russia because the technology is humming along.
“AI and autonomy allow drones to continue operating when GPS signals are unavailable or the communications link with an operator is severed.
A case in point: after a human chooses the target, Ukraine’s TFL-1 can operate autonomously if the data link is disrupted and it survives even amid Russian electronic warfare,” CFR explained.
The Drone Attacks Will Not Stop
Look for more strikes with these types of drones to be executed against Russia. The air defenses around Moscow and St. Petersburg are being tested.
The Russians are trying to layer their surface-to-air missile systems in depth, with more advanced SAMs such as the S-400 and S-500s deployed around the Kremlin and other important sites, while older models are stationed in the suburbs.
Attacking Russia’s Energy Supplies
One problem is protecting oil processing and refining sites in the country. There is little Russia can do, since most air defenses are arrayed around cities and are not protecting energy infrastructure.
Ukraine can also use incessant drone attacks to break the enemy’s will to fight. Ordinary Russians, who were previously not affected by the war in Ukraine, are now suffering psychologically.
The Ukrainian Way of War
Zelensky must be proud of the way his country’s drone industry has stepped into the void and helped create a strategy that could bring the war to a close. Even Putin has admitted that the attacks on the energy facilities have hurt Russia.
Look for more nightly drone raids on top-tier Russian cities that will have citizens ducking for cover. The Ukrainian unmanned kamikaze weapons are hurting Russia.
Their air defenses are struggling to keep up, and the war is being extended beyond the front lines.
It is not clear if Russia will give up soon, but the Kremlin has lost the initiative and momentum in the war, and Putin could order his forces to stand down as Moscow seeks a ceasefire and peace process to stop Ukrainian drone attacks from disrupting the economy and signaling to Russian citizens that they will suffer too during the war.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
