The War in Ukraine Continues Its Incessant Transformations – The original war in Ukraine was supposed to be executed quickly by Russia in a blitzkrieg style with combined arms in the air and on the ground. It quickly bogged down due to Ukrainian anti-tank missiles and loitering munitions that created a graveyard of Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers.
Then both sides dug in. Trench warfare ensued. Multiple-launch rocket systems and old-fashioned field artillery belched death and destruction. This created a stalemate. First-person drones and kamikaze unmanned craft took out individual soldiers and created a killing field not seen since World War One.
T-14 Armata. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Main battle tank T-14 object 148 on heavy unified tracked platform Armata. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The Current Iteration
Now the war has shifted again. Ukraine and Russia are going after civilian targets. Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces have attacked energy infrastructure, creating gasoline shortages that have made the Russians furious as they wait in long lines. Plus, Ukrainian air raids have eliminated warehouses belonging to Russia’s top online retailer — an Amazon-like company that also sells dual-use civilian-military equipment.
More War Crimes Perpetrated by Russia
Russia has responded with incessant attacks on civilians in Kyiv and other cities with its own drones and ballistic missiles. Critics have deemed these attacks war crimes, and they have killed the elderly and children.
Now the war has switched to a space-based conflict. Both sides have used satellite imagery for better targeting. It is a “race to deploy artificial intelligence and control a spectrum of radio waves,” according to the New York Times.
Russia Would Like to Create Blackouts in Ukraine
Ukraine is worried that Russia will target power generation facilities, making the winter too cold for ordinary people to function. There could also be blackouts that would cause the Ukrainian arms industry to pause for extended periods, making it difficult to get drones and other munitions to the front.
Could a Demilitarized Zone Stop the War?
Meanwhile, Zelensky’s unmanned systems want to make living in Russia unbearable too, in actions that could force Vladimir Putin to seek a ceasefire on terms more favorable to Ukraine. More likely, both sides will eventually agree to a Korea-like demilitarized zone after a ceasefire. This is not what Ukraine wants, but they may have to acquiesce to some countries that favor an end to the fighting.
Peace plans are still far off, and neither side appears to be working hard at the bargaining table as the war shifts to new technologies and tactics.
The New Russian Way of War
“Russia is now putting jet engines on inexpensive drones modeled on the Iranian Shahed, launching a constellation of satellites to help guide its weapons, and rolling out low-cost cruise missiles that bridge the gap between slow attack drones and advanced strategic missiles. Russian fighter jets are firing satellite-guided glide bombs that systematically obliterate towns and cities,” according to the New York Times.
Ukraine has led the world in drone technology, and they are tinkering with new “hybrid” weapons that combine the versatility of unmanned kamikaze munitions with cruise missile guidance and targeting communication.
This ‘Flamingo’ Takes Flight
The Ukrainians are also producing their own indigenous missiles like the FP-5 Flamingo. This is a long-range ground-launched cruise missile that carries a hefty payload. But even with the development of offensive munitions, Zelensky still yearns for defensive means. He is working on a deal to produce Patriot PAC-3 interceptor missiles in his country since the United States is running low on the projectiles during its war with Iran. President Donald Trump, once an enthusiastic supporter of allowing Ukraine to make its own Patriot interceptors, is having second thoughts.
Almost every night, people in Kyiv and other cities head to bomb shelters and subway tunnels to wait hours before they can go home. Those Russian ballistic missiles enjoy clear skies without Patriot missile defenders to shoot them down.
Can Russia Protect Its People?
The Russians, in turn, have also been frustrated by the lack of comprehensive missile defense coverage over their cities. The Kremlin and its battle planners often had depended on deterrence from its nuclear weapons arsenal to keep adversaries in check. But the current defensive screen only protects about 40 percent of the country’s nuclear missile launch facilities.
Russia thus faces a difficult choice. Should it move missile defense batteries from their launch sites and transport them to cities? Or allow Ukrainian projectiles and drones to attack Moscow and St. Petersburg at will?
This is a troubling conundrum for Vladimir Putin. There are just not enough missile defenders to go around in a country this large. He decided in the early periods of the war to send Pantsir and Tor systems to fend off long-range missile attacks from U.S.-provided ATACMS systems from destroying Russian targets near the border with Ukraine. Then these batteries had to be moved back to defend cities.
The Large Land Mass Is Difficult to Protect
“Russia’s challenge is fundamentally geographic,” said Justin Bronk, a senior analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, a think tank in Britain. “When Ukraine forces Russia to pull systems back from the front line to protect cities or refineries in the rear, it creates gaps everywhere.”
The new stage of this war is hazardous for both sides. Russia and Ukraine have decided to go after civilian targets to create pressure on each government and broaden the war’s objectives. This creates a situation in which death from the sky is a daily fact of life. The conflict has entered a violent phase that threatens ordinary people, and that is forcing many to wish that both militaries can stop the killing soon. A DMZ compromise may be the only way to stop the carnage.
MORE – How to Beat Putin for Good
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
