What Taiwan Can Learn from Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Against Russia

What does Ukraine’s Offensive into Russia mean for a Future Taiwan-China War?: The foreign policy consensus that enabled the United States to win the Cold War is a distant memory. Most young partisans today cannot conceive of President Ronald Reagan’s relationship with House Speaker Thomas “Tip” O’Neill, Jr., to set sparring aside when necessary to find consensus.

Russia Invades Ukraine and the China Challenge

When Russia invaded Ukraine two and a half years ago, too many American partisans chose sides primarily because they relished the fight in Washington. President Donald Trump criticized the Zelensky government in Ukraine, and so many Trump followers questioned Washington’s support for Kyiv. Politicians from both the isolationist right and progressive left inverted responsibility for the invasion by suggesting either NATO expansion or Kyiv’s pivot toward Europe forced Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hands.

Among policy professionals, at least, Elbridge Colby, the blueblood grandson of the late Director of Central Intelligence William Colby, made one of the most persuasive arguments about supporting Ukraine. He argued that in an era of declining resources, the United States could not afford the distraction the Ukraine fight represented because the People’s Republic of China posed a much greater threat to the United States.

Those who disagree with Colby do not downplay China’s threat but argue that the United States can tackle both challenges and that Washington cannot compartmentalize its response so easily: Abandoning Ukraine while it suffers a Russian onslaught would embolden Chinese hawks who argue that the United States is a paper tiger.

There are obvious parallels between both Russia and Ukraine on one hand and China and Taiwan on the other. Those prone to rationalize Russia’s aggression in NATO expansion ignore an important fact: When Putin addressed the Russian people days before he began the war on Ukraine, he questioned both Ukraine’s legitimacy and its right to exist as a separate nation. Instead, he argued, Ukraine was simply Russia. “Ukraine is not just a neighboring country for us. It is an inalienable part of our own history, culture and spiritual space,” Putin explained. “Since time immemorial, the people living in the southwest of what has historically been Russian land have called themselves Russians and Orthodox Christians. This was the case before the 17th century, when a portion of this territory rejoined the Russian state, and after.” He continued to argue that Ukrainian nationalism was a fiction. “Modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, Communist Russia. This process started practically right after the 1917 revolution, and Lenin and his associates did it in a way that was extremely harsh on Russia – by separating, severing what is historically Russian land. Nobody asked the millions of people living there what they thought.”

Communist China makes much the same argument with regard to Taiwan, even though throughout history, Taiwan has been distinct from mainland China. Indeed, over the past five centuries, Chinese have neither ruled Taiwan for any appreciable time nor controlled the mountainous island even when they claimed it part of its empire. Even Mao Zedong, who led the Chinese communists to victory, admitted that Taiwan was as separate a country from China as Korea.

Ukraine and Taiwan are not only historically analogous, but so too is the problem they pose any invader. China can destroy Taiwanese infrastructure and cause vast damage with missile barrages and airstrikes, just as Russia did to Ukraine.  And, just as Russia occupied Crimea and the Donbas, so too can China gobble up Taiwan’s outlying islands. To occupy Taiwan as a whole, however, would cause the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) tens if not hundreds of thousands of casualties, similar to the price the Russian army paid when it invaded Ukraine.

Prior to its Ukraine adventure, the Russian Army enjoyed a top tier reputation. The Biden administration assessed that Russia could digest Ukraine in two weeks. President Joe Biden and his National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan even tried to convince Volodymyr Zelensky to flee his country prior to the onslaught.

Despite China’s fearsome reputation, it too is an untested power. As my American Enterprise Institute colleague and demographer Nick Eberstadt pointed out more than a decade ago, the PLA is an army of only sons; even the elites in Chinese society may not be able to afford the lost of their only child. While the Chinese have shown they can conquer unmanned reefs in the South China Sea, they have not fought a serious war since the month-long Sino-Vietnam War in 1979, which China lost. Chinese hardware today is impressive, but its troops remain untested.

While American policymakers argue that China studies and absorbs lessons from Russia’s campaign, it is important to recognize that Taiwan can learn as much from Ukraine. With its drive into Kursk, Ukraine exposed Russia’s own territorial defense to be the Russian regime’s Achilles’ heel.

If China invades, the key to Taiwan’s defense will be a strong offense. Just as the Biden administration should never have sought to constrain the Ukraine fight to Ukraine itself, Taiwan should not artificially limit its retaliation geographically. Scholar Gordon Chang suggested that Taiwan could kill tens of millions of people by destroying Chinese dams.  Even voicing that scenario enhances Taiwan’s deterrence. Taiwanese barrages from its island of Quemoy [Kinmen] to the Chinese city of Xiamen, just a couple kilometers away, could kill tens of thousands. Infiltration need not be unidirectional. Certainly, China would seek to infiltrate Special Forces into Taiwan; Taiwan should do the same in China. Many Chinese chafe at Xi Jinping’s autocratic and corrupt rule; if Taiwan can make China falter, ordinary Chinese might take advantage to challenge the Communist Party’s disastrous rule.

Neighboring states might also take advantage of poor Chinese morale with their own incursions into Chinese territory, a just move given decades of Chinese aggression against Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, Tibet, Mongolia, and East Turkestan.

What Ukraine Can Teach Taiwan

The best defense is a strong offense. After two and a half years of absorbing Russian blows, Ukraine has demonstrated the wisdom of taking its fight to Russian territory. Taiwan might be smaller than Ukraine in territory and population, but the lesson holds. If China invades Taiwan, Beijing should recognize now that no coastal Chinese city will be safe, and every Chinese worker should understand that working in a Chinese defense factory could be his or her death warrant.

About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics, including “Seven Pillars: What Really Causes Instability in the Middle East?” (AEI Press, 2019); “Kurdistan Rising” (AEI Press, 2016); “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes” (Encounter Books, 2014); and “Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos” (Palgrave, 2005). Dr. Rubin has a PhD and an MA in history from Yale University, where he also obtained a BS in biology.