Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

Military Hardware: Tanks, Bombers, Submarines and More

Chinese Missile Attack on U.S. Bases: The Worst Scenario Is Numbing

A U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor backs away from a KC-135 Stratotanker after conducting an in-flight refueling during a training mission over central New Mexico on Oct. 23, 2013. The Raptor is assigned to the 49th Fighter Wing at Holloman Air Force Base, N.M. The Stratotanker is assigned to McConnell Air Force Base, Kan. DoD photo by Airman 1st Class John Linzmeier, U.S. Air Force. (Released)
A U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor backs away from a KC-135 Stratotanker after conducting an in-flight refueling during a training mission over central New Mexico on Oct. 23, 2013. The Raptor is assigned to the 49th Fighter Wing at Holloman Air Force Base, N.M. The Stratotanker is assigned to McConnell Air Force Base, Kan. DoD photo by Airman 1st Class John Linzmeier, U.S. Air Force. (Released)

Could there ever be a modern-day “Pearl Harbor” attack from China in which the Middle Kingdom launched a devastating missile attack at U.S. military bases in East Asia?

China certainly has the means and wherewithal to do it – hundreds of cruise and ballistic missiles could easily hit American military installations in the region. The three main targets would be Guam, Japan, and South Korea putting tens of thousands of U.S. personnel at risk.

Thousands of Chinese Missiles Towards Guam, Japan, and South Korea

China has anywhere between 2,800 to 3,500 short-range, medium-range, intermediate-range, and intercontinental ballistic missiles. American targets in Guam, Japan, and South Korea could be destroyed with this arsenal.

The Day One war scenario is when China could fire a deadly salvo of hundreds of ballistic missiles to overwhelm U.S. missile defense system.

Short-range ballistic missiles could hit South Korea, while medium-range ballistic missiles could threaten Japan and intermediate-range ballistic missiles could destroy targets in Guam.

Three Critical Military Installations

The three U.S. bases that China would likely have in its sights on for a Day One attack would be Andersen Air Force Base in Guam, Camp Humphreys in South Korea, and Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan. These three are critical to U.S. military strategy in the Indo-Pacific and their destruction would hobble American efforts to prevent the Chinese from inflicting other serious damage to American forces.

Guam Is in the Crosshairs

The long-range DF-27 hypersonic missile could reach Guam. More than 8,000 U.S. military personnel and their families live on Andersen Air Force Base there. B-1, B-2, and B-52 strategic bombers can fly out of Andersen. Guam is threatened by the DF-26 “Guam Express” or “Guam Killer” ballistic missile.

DF-17 Missile from China.

DF-17 Missile from China. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

South Korea Is in Range

Camp Humphreys in South Korea is 60 miles south of the DMZ. The installation has dozens of U.S. military units including those that fall under the Second Infantry Division. There are also special operations forces and Marines. Camp Humphreys is huge and is home to around 40,000 U.S. military personnel. Humphreys is threatened by China’s short-range ballistic missiles such as the CSS-6, CSS-7, and the CSS-11.

Look Out Okinawa

Kadena Air Base in Okinawa is located only 400 miles off the coast of China. Over 20,000 Americans live and serve on the base in some capacity. Kadena has 48 F-15 C/D Eagles at Kadena. These will be swapped out for the much improved F-15EXs beginning this year. There are also numerous support aircraft on the base such as tankers and airborne command and control models. Kadena can be hit by the CSS-5, DF-17, and CJ-10.

Chinese missiles would be difficult to strike before they attack these bases. Many of them are on road-mobile systems, in hardened silos, or in caves.

How Count the Americans Defend Against a Missile Attack?

The United States has extensive missile defense systems in the region including Terminal High Altitude Area Defense batteries in South Korea and Guam. There are also ballistic-missile interceptors such as the SM-3 Block IIA as part of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System on naval ships to protect Okinawa. The land-based Aegis defense system is not yet deployed in Guam.

But would that be enough to stop an overwhelming attack on Day One? There are just not enough interceptors to destroy the hundreds of Chinese missiles that would stream in toward these three American bases. North Korea can also target Camp Humphreys in a coordinated attack should the DPRK and China gang up on the Americans in South Korea.

Modern Pearl Harbor

Guam is also in reach. “Should a war with China break out, conventional thinking is that China would launch a large salvo of cruise and ballistic missiles at Guam to destroy military bases there that are key to U.S. military operations throughout the Pacific,” Robert Peters, a research fellow on nuclear deterrence and missile defense for the Heritage Foundation, wrote. He added that an attack would be a “modern Pearl Harbor” that could erode the level of power projection and crimp logistics.

Bases are obviously stationary and unable to move away from attack. The missile defense system would work overtime and likely run out of intercepting missiles. Aircraft would have to be scrambled ahead of time to attempt to take out the missiles as they stream in. A Pearl Harbor-type of attack could surprise the U.S. air bases before they could launch fighters.

The United States Could Fight Back on Day Two

On Day Two of a shooting war with China, the United States could go after Chinese missile launchers with F-35s, stealth B-2 bombers, and cruise and ballistic missiles from American submarines. Still, the personnel and material losses on Day One would be devastating.

Agile Combat Employment

American battle planners are looking for ways to disperse airplanes to have them land and even take off on roads and highways in the event that runways on the air bases are destroyed. This concept is called “Agile Combat Employment,” but it may not be enough to save the soft targets such as personnel who would be at risk from a Chinese Pearl Harbor-like sneak attack.

Thus, the United States must do better than that to protect its installations in East Asia. It appears the Chinese have the upper hand. The United States must develop missile defense systems that can protect against a vast missile attack from China or find other plans to intercept enemy missiles as they stream in. It wouldn’t be easy to stop another modern-day Pearl Harbor.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

Brent M. Eastwood
Written By

Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. 404NotFound

    October 7, 2024 at 4:26 pm

    Such a scenario would translate as the full fledged outbreak of ww3 in the western pacific with use of nuclear weapons a truly inevitable consequence.

    What does That mean.

    Unlikely due to the chinese being too idle and bored and simply searching for some first class excitement.

    Likely a provocative act by some general or admiral as a cause such as an extreme act of assassination of top leadership or physical sabotage of nuclear plant.

    Recall recent CIA online posting for people willing to serve as subversive agents in china.

    Also recall edward snowden assertion CIA cell in hongkong being HQ for covert activities located right within US consulate at garden road in central district.

    Believed directly involved in the aug 2015 tianjin blasts.

    Also note frequent statements by generals about imminent war with china mentioning particular dates like 2025, 2027, 2030.

    Therefore this scenario is result of US action, not due to chinese officials with too much free time on their hands.

    So, can’t occur in a vacuum, only as the opening scene for ww3 in the western pacific which ultimately will become global ww3.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You May Also Like

Military Hardware: Tanks, Bombers, Submarines and More

Summary and Key Points: China and Russia are accelerating the development of new stealth bomber platforms, likely in response to the U.S. Air Force’s...

The Treaty

Unpacking the Capability Behind Hezbollah’s Threat to Expand its War: Less than a day after U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein was in Beirut to...

Military Hardware: Tanks, Bombers, Submarines and More

Summary and Key Points: Russia’s only aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, remains plagued by challenges despite promises of a return. -After years of repairs marked...

Military Hardware: Tanks, Bombers, Submarines and More

Fewer Ships, Recruiting Shortfalls: DEI Has Left Our Navy Less Prepared: In the past several weeks, the U.S. Coast Guard and Navy have announced...