Will North Korea Soon Have MIRV Capability for its Ballistic Missiles?

On June 26, 2024, the North Koreans conducted a test of what they called MIRV technology. Pyongyang claimed the test “aimed at securing the MIRV capability,” and also claimed that during the test, the North Koreans “successfully conducted the separation and guidance control test of individual mobile warheads.” The DPRK also claimed that the mobile warheads were guided to three separate targets. Officials speaking on behalf of the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff stated that there was a missile test, but the missile exploded in the air around 250 kilometers from launch.  This is the first time that North Korea has publicly announced that it is testing a multiple warhead ballistic missile capability.

Could North Korea Really Have MIRV Missiles?

The recent missile test using what the North Koreans are calling MIRV technology leads to several questions: How legitimate are Pyongyang’s claims that the test was using MIRV technology?

Where did this technology come from? How close are the North Koreans to integrating MIRV technology into their operational ballistic missile fleet?

And, of course, finally, will this be a “game changer?”

What We Know

MIRV technology is not only quite advanced, it is also rare. Even though this technology was developed by the United States in the 1960s, only five nations are known to possess that capability – the U.S., UK, France, China, and Russia. 

Thus, asking the question if North Korea is legitimately developing MIRV technology for a ballistic missile is quite prudent. Based on data acquired since the launch, it appears that the missile used for the launch was the first stage of a previously used, solid-fuel ballistic missile – possibly the Hwasong-16.  The second stage is still unclear but it is obviously the vehicle that was meant to deploy the warheads. 

Unfortunately for the North Koreans, the missile booster exploded apparently before any warheads could be launched (despite what the North Koreans reported). Thus, this was a failed test, but likely the first of several designed to develop the potential of MIRV technology. So yes, it appears that Pyongyang’s claims that it is developing this technology appear to be legitimate.

The rather disturbing information described above leads one to the question, where did this technology come from?  Those analysts who have consistently followed North Korean military capabilities over the years know that it would be impossible for North Korean scientists and engineers to suddenly roll out of bed one morning with the bright idea of how to develop MIRV technology for Pyongyang’s ballistic missiles – particularly given the uniqueness and sophistication of developing systems with such a capability.  Therefore, the answer should be obvious.  It is almost undoubtedly the Russians who have provided this technology.  The North Koreans have been providing the Russians with ammunition, artillery, small weapons and even ballistic missiles for their fight in Ukraine since 2022.  While many have opined on the price that Moscow is paying for all of these weapons and ammunition, most agree that the Russians are likely providing assistance for a variety of systems that Kim Jong-un wants to develop for his military. After analyzing the recent test in June, it appears very likely that this is one of the systems with which Russia is provided technological assistance.

Given the apparent lack of success of the recent North Korean test launch attempting to use MIRV technology, one cannot help but ask the question, how close are the North Koreans to integrating this technology into their ballistic missile fleet?  The answer is it depends.  What it depends on is how much technological support the Russians will provide for this technology and how quickly they will provide it.  Of course, if the Russians wanted to give North Korea everything that they needed to make this technology operational for Pyongyang’s ballistic missiles, they could do it tomorrow. Based on the recent test, that does not appear to be the case.  

What does appear likely to be the case is that we will see several more of these tests, with increasing technological capabilities in each succeeding test. But there is no way of knowing how much support the Russians are likely to provide (for a price, of course) in addition to what they already have. Thus, the timeline for seeing ballistic missiles with MIRV capabilities is likely based largely on what the Russians provide and how quickly they provide it. Based on the large amount of arms trade North Korea and Russia are engaged in, that timeframe is likely to be shorter rather than longer. The recent Putin visit and Russia’s role in ending the UN Panel of Experts on North Korea are both actions that lead us to believe Russia will not hesitate to work with North Korea when Putin feels it is in his interests to fight the war in Ukraine.    

A MIRV Game Changer for North Korea?

While this recent ballistic missile test gained justifiable attention and concern, the important question that must be asked is, will this capability be a “game changer?”  The answer is quite possibly. 

If successful, MIRV technology could greatly complicate the ballistic missile defense (BMD) mission in South Korea, Japan, and, of course, the United States. It would mean attempting to shoot down several warheads shot from just one missile, and if a volley of missiles was to be launched, it would greatly exacerbate this threat.  

The biggest implications for security in Northeast Asia and the United States from a MIRV capability will likely evolve around BMD. It will be important to ensure Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo are working together to strengthen and advance BMD capabilities. Some of this is happening already. In addition, as the exchange of technology and systems continues to advance between North Korea and Russia, sanctions must not only be initiated but strictly enforced. 

Because there is little doubt that North Korea will continue to advance it ballistic programs as quickly as possible.

About the Author: Dr Bruce E. Bechtol  

Now a National Security Journal Contributing Editor, Dr. Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. is an award-winning professor of Political Science at Angelo State University. He is also the Chairman of the Board of the International Council on Korean Studies and a fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies. The author of five books dealing with North Korea, his latest work is North Korean Military Proliferation in the Middle East and Africa.