The weekend brought some of the most violent strikes on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, since the war began. Several Ukrainian civilians died in the strikes, which included at least one Oreshnik hypersonic missile. Russia followed up the deadly round of strikes with stark rhetoric, hinting at additional bellicosity in the future. But despite the seemingly grim picture from the ground in Kyiv, Russia’s actions are not those of a Russian war machine that is winning, but rather writings of desperation.
Recently, Ukraine has made more progress on the battlefield than at any point in the war since the 2023 counteroffensive.
Tu-95 Bomber from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Although Ukraine’s push quickly lost momentum in the face of robust Russian defenses — and, perhaps, a certain degree of timidity in the senior echelons of leadership in Kyiv — this time Ukraine is aided by looming structural problems that threaten to derail the Kremlin’s forces.
Ukraine is Winning the Drone War
A constant facet of this conflict has been the speed of innovation in the air. Forced by battlefield necessity, Ukrainian forces have generally led in drone innovation, building drones that fly farther, carry more payload, and offer greater resistance to jamming.
Although their Russian adversaries have tended to adopt these innovations somewhat more slowly, Russia excels at scaling up modifications that work more widely.
But no Ukraine appears to have wrested control of a significant portion of the skies, striking important Russian command and control nodes, fuel and ammunition depots, deep behind the front lines in Ukraine, and managing waves of damaging strikes against Russian energy infrastructure deep within Russia proper. Ukrainian long-range strikes threaten Russia’s ability to finance its war in the long term.
More immediately, however, Russia is walking toward a manpower crisis.
Su-35 Fighter from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Russia’s Manpower Issue
By Ukrainian estimates, Russia’s maximum training pipeline capacity for new recruits is around 50,000 per month.
Boosted by astronomical sign-up bonuses, high wages, and a debt forgiveness degree recently signed into law by Russian President Vladimir Putin, tens of thousands of men are absorbed into the Kremlin’s war machine each month. But Ukraine is killing or wounding an estimated 35,000 Russians per month in Ukraine, forcing Russia to abbreviate its training timetables.
Russia’s Energy Industry — and Air Defenses — are Suffering
Ukrainian strikes deep within Russia — what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called long-range sanctions — have managed to knock out a significant portion of Russia’s ability to extract, refine, and export energy, putting a dent in Russia’s war coffers.
Not only do the strikes hurt Russia’s long-term financing, but they also force Russia to make painful decisions about air defense assets, and, Ukraine hopes, a reshuffling of air defense batteries.
Buoyed by access to European Union funding made available by the recent departure of former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, a staunch critic of Ukraine, following his election defeat, Ukraine is easing off the back foot. In light of Ukraine’s burgeoning domestic cruise missile progress, it appears likely that Russia will feel pressure from an air defense squeeze.
Tension at the Top — and a Question of Time, Endurance
One argument within Ukrainian leadership holds that, thanks to Russian structural problems in financing and prosecuting this war — exacerbated by Ukraine’s military progress on the ground and in the air — Russia can no longer afford to fight a long war.
Death by a thousand cuts will eventually bleed Russia to death, or so the logic holds. But balancing that strategy against Ukraine’s own endurance will not be easy. Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, battered by Russia’s winter pounding, is fragile.
Confidence in Ukraine’s political leadership, rocked by a far-reaching corruption scandal, is at a nadir.
T-90M from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Barring fast and unforeseen Ukrainian progress on the battlefield, or, perhaps, an unanticipated crisis in Russia’s political or military leadership, it seems likely that this war will drag on for some time yet to come.
And while the current trajectory seems, from the Ukrainian perspective, cautiously optimistic, what comes after more prolonged, contracted fighting remains to be seen.
The question now is, Ukraine could well win the war.
But what kind of Ukraine will emerge victorious?
Will the country emerge victorious?
Or shattered?
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines in the Donbas and writing about its civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
