The Russian invasion of Ukraine has dragged on for more than four years, and things are going very badly for Moscow.
Russian forces lost a net total of 69 square miles of territory in Ukraine between late April and May 19, 2026, marking Moscow’s most significant sustained territorial setbacks since January 2024.
Russian Setbacks on Land And With Heavy Casualties in Ukraine
T-84 Tank from Ukraine War. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Casualties remain extremely high. In April, Russian forces were losing an average of 1,000 to 1,420 troops per day. Al-Jazeera reported that Russia lost about 35,000 troops killed or wounded during the month.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based war monitor, said it had observed evidence that Russian forces suffered a net loss of 116 square kilometers (45 square miles) during the month.
“Russian forces have been using infiltration tactics in part to create the perception of continuous Russian advances across the front and to support Kremlin cognitive warfare efforts to exaggerate Russian successes,” the ISW reported. “Russian forces, however, do not control these infiltration areas.”
May has continued this bloody trend, with Russia suffering daily personnel losses reported by Ukrainian sources ranging between 900 and 1,200 deaths and serious wounds in late May. Through the first months of the year, Russian forces have been averaging taking 1.1 square miles a day, resulting in more than 1,000 casualties. That rate of advance is one-third of their 2025 average.
According to Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, drone strikes alone accounted for 19,203 Russian casualties in the first 19 days of May
Russia’s Generals Paint A Rosy Picture, But The Situation Is Dire
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to get rosy reports of Russian troops advancing on all fronts, but the truth is far different. Russia has suffered catastrophic losses in men, armored vehicles, and aircraft as Ukrainian defenses have been much better than anyone would have believed.
Putin’s government-controlled press has kept the truth from the people as to the horrific casualties Russia suffered. And is perfectly willing to continue the bloodbath as long as Russia ultimately wins.
Russia’s Horrific Casualties And Equipment Losses
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), as of late May 2026, Russia has suffered more than 1.35 million casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine since the February 2022 invasion. More than 352,000 of these are believed to be fatalities.
Despite rosy combat assessments by his generals, Putin’s forces are making very minimal gains (15 to 70 meters per day) but at casualty rates of up to 1,000 troops per day. Their meat-grinding tactics have resulted in more combat losses over two months (December 2025 and January 2026) than the number of troops newly mobilized and contracted, according to the George W. Bush Presidential Center.
Russia’s horrific casualties have forced Moscow to turn to foreign fighters “often recruited under false pretenses and press-ganged under pressure,” according to U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey. There are approximately 17,000 North Korean “volunteers” fighting for Russia in Ukraine.
In terms of armored vehicles, armor, artillery, aircraft, and material, as of May 1, according to MINFIN, Russian losses in equipment:
-Tanks — 11,955
-Armored fighting vehicle — 24,618
-Artillery systems — 42,790
-MLRS — 1,805
-Anti-aircraft warfare — 1,397
-Planes — 436
-Helicopters — 353
-UAV — 313,342
-Cruise missiles — 4,687
-Ships (boats) — 33
-Submarines — 1
Ukrainian losses have also been high, with between 500,000 and 600,000 killed, wounded, or missing. Civilian deaths in 2025 were the highest in the war, due to Russia’s targeting of civilian infrastructure and the civilian population.
Ukraine Has Flipped The Script On Russia
The 69 square miles were retaken over a four-week span. The losses accelerated significantly, with 29 square miles lost in the single week ending May 19, following a 12-square-mile loss the week prior.
The tactical shift in favor of Kyiv has taken place due to Ukraine’s enhanced ability to disrupt Russian supply lines and the deployment of tech-driven assets like unmanned ground units and drones.
Moscow’s strategy to defeat Ukraine in a bloody war of attrition is failing, and they are facing critical shortages of personnel and equipment. As NSJ’s Harry J. Kazianis pointed out, “Russian forces are currently taking approximately 1,000 casualties per day and recruiting approximately 800 to 930 per day. The math does not need explanation. Every day of the war produces a net loss of Russian battlefield strength of roughly 100 to 200 personnel, compounded across every week the war continues.
“The Ukrainian commander-in-chief, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported on May 22 that Russian losses since the beginning of 2026 alone have already exceeded 141,500 personnel, of whom more than 83,000 are what military analysts term “irreversible” — meaning killed, permanently disabled, or missing in action.
“Russia has lost more soldiers across the first five months of 2026 than it did across the first two years of the full-scale invasion combined.”
They have lost the initiative and are, for the first time, in danger of losing the war.
Ukrainian Drone Strikes Are Taking A Toll
Ukrainian drone strikes have increasingly hit deep inside Russia, targeting its oil and gas industries while, at least temporarily, shutting down airports in what Ukrainian sources claim as a “revenue war.”
Because of these drone threats, the ISW also reported that Russian authorities are being forced to restrict the use of airspace in the Moscow air zone. The Russian Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) claimed on May 25 that Russian authorities will begin prohibiting civilian flights in the Moscow air zone at altitudes from 0 to 5,100 meters starting on June 1.
Russian authorities closed the Kaliningrad airport due to a reported drone threat for the first time on May 25.
Ukrainian drone attacks continue to target Moscow’s oil production facilities, effectively shutting down the Syzran Oil Refinery, which refines about 170,000 barrels a day.
How Can Ukraine Seize This “Window Of Opportunity”
The Ukrainians have mainly been fighting a war of attrition, trying to inflict as many casualties on Russian military units as possible, which will ultimately force them into giving up their plan to conquer Ukraine.
Due to declining US military assistance, Western Europe has stepped up its aid packages; however, Ukraine is becoming more self-sufficient, now producing almost 60 percent of its own equipment and 95 percent of its drones.
In 2026, Ukrainians have not only stopped Russian advances but are also retaking their territory. Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky, who commands Ukraine’s Third Army Corps, believes that there is a window of opportunity for Ukraine.
“I believe the next six to nine months are a turning point,” Biletsky said.
“We need to define those directions where we can improve our positions, take some strategic points, and then speak with the Russians from a position of strength – not weakness – about a truly stable truce,” Biletsky added.
Since the invasion began, Russia has taken approximately 29,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory, about 12 percent of the country, and the equivalent of half the state of Illinois, according to RussiaMatters.
Russia and Putin are getting desperate. Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke on May 25 with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the Minister’s request.
Lavrov said that Russia would be launching “systematic and consistent strikes” against Ukrainian military facilities and what Moscow called “decision-making centers.” That means Kyiv.
That isn’t a threat from a position of strength; the conventional invasion has failed, and Moscow is resorting to new threats to terror bomb the population.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
