A fifth round of talks to end the Iran war is underway, but there’s little sign of a breakthrough. The proposed 60-day ceasefire would give Tehran 30 days to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — but Iran, which has built a bureaucracy to charge transit fees, has little reason to hurry as the global economy strains.
The Iran War Just Won’t End
Iran’s Drones That Russia Is Using. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
A new round of negotiations to end the war between the Trump administration and the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran is dominating the news cycle. These negotiations now make the fifth such purported negotiation. None of the previous talks yielded anything other than more bloodshed, bombs, and bellicosity.
Trump’s Market Management Strategy
Many suspect that President Donald Trump is merely claiming his team is nearing a deal to manipulate markets, since the one metric Trump seems to care about consistently is the stock market. When it does well, he believes he is doing well. When it dips, he thinks he’s doing badly.
Again, the US president told the media yesterday that he “basically” had a deal but that he was in no rush to sign it. Meanwhile, the Iranians are saying little. What Iranian leaders have said about the proposed deal has been to negate whatever Trump and his advisers are telling the Western press.
Iran Missiles. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Negotiations Amid Renewed Fighting
In fact, as the talks were underway, the United States took the opportunity of a ceasefire and negotiations to attack the Iranian naval facility at Bandar Abbas, prompting the Iranians to retaliate with missile attacks against the US ally, Kuwait.
Just this morning, while doing one of his morning exercises with sailors from the US Navy warship USS Boxer, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stated that they were ready to go back to war immediately. The American defense leader urged the sailors on board to be ready for the restoration of hostilities at any moment.
The $300 Billion Tehran Investment Fund
As Hegseth made those statements, reports propagated from the region that the US envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, were insisting on a $300 billion investment fund to invest in real estate in Tehran. That’s not a joke. The president’s envoys, one a close friend and the other Trump’s son-in-law–all of whom are international real estate investors–are hanging the prospects of a peace deal with Iran on whether they can use US tax dollars to “invest” in rebuilding Iran (while they obviously take a vig).
For their part, the Iranians seem open to the $300 billion investment fund. And why wouldn’t they? Currently, Tehran claims that the US owes it $24 billion in frozen assets. If the Witkoff-Kushner side deal goes through as part of a larger deal with Iran, Iran’s leaders stand to gain a much larger sum.
These Negotiations Are Not a Peace Deal
Let’s get to the deal currently being discussed. Because it’s not actually a peace deal as we might think about it. In fact, it’s merely a patch designed to reset relations and buy the Trump administration time to get America’s economic house in order after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a major collapse.
If the Strait remains closed, the global economy goes off a cliff. It’s already started going off a cliff, with Asia and Europe hardest hit. The pain will soon be felt in the United States, as the country nears an important Midterm election cycle.
The 60-Day Ceasefire Plan from Hell
Here’s why you should be careful in calling this a “deal.” As it stands, Trump is negotiating a 60-day ceasefire as a prelude to launching formal nuclear talks. The White House wants to de-escalate the war, reduce the burden on global supply chains, and then push for the denuclearization of Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz Problem Remains
Elements of the 60-day ceasefire draft include an Iranian pledge to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US gradually lifting its naval blockade outside the strait. Interestingly, most reports indicate that the deal gives Iran 30 days to reopen the strait. If Tehran waits 30 days to reopen the strait, you might as well get ready for the most destructive recession in recent memory.
Plus, Trump does not appear too interested in ending his own counter-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Timing is everything here. Seemingly, no one on the American side understands that time is working against the world economy.
Iran Has No Reason to Hurry
What incentive is there for Tehran to remove its blockade of the strait promptly? What’s more, why would Iran be willing to restore conditions in the Strait of Hormuz to what they were before the Americans and Israelis started the war on February 28?
Iran has already established a bureaucracy to manage fees for ships passing through the Strait. They are unlikely to simply abandon those plans (unless the $300 billion investment fund is the backdoor way to restoring prewar conditions in the strait).
The Nuclear Weapons Question
The big issue for the Trump administration, at least publicly, is that Iran must surrender their nuclear weapons materials and submit to inspections. The process of removing that material remains contentious. Still, there is no evidence that Iran will agree to denuclearization, as they will likely perceive nuclear weapons as being the only shield they have against another round of US-Israeli decapitation strikes.
On the other side of the negotiations, the Iranian representatives have said little publicly. And what we do know publicly, the Iranians are refuting. The Ayatollah Motjaba Khamenei has already stated that he won’t be abandoning nuclear weapons development. Perhaps that is merely a negotiation tactic. But the fact remains that we have little reason to believe any part of this deal will come to fruition.
A Temporary Patch, Not a Lasting Solution
Then there’s the last part. The timeline. What happens after 60 days?
Apparently, the Trump administration wants the ceasefire to end in 60 days so that denuclearization talks can begin in earnest.
What if the Iranians tell Trump to pound sand? Will he restart hostilities?
So, again, we’re not talking about a deal here. We’re talking about a patch to get Trump through this summer with as little economic disruption as possible. But it won’t work.
The reality is that most Americans will feel economic pain beginning around midsummer. The only question now is how bad it is and how long it will go on. If Trump restarts hostilities in 60 days, that’s it. There will be no deal, and the economy will implode.
Iran knows this, which is why they will have no problem stalling and doing whatever they wanted to do in the first place.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is Senior National Security Editor. Recently, Weichert became the editor of the “NatSec Guy” section at Emerald. TV. He was previously the senior national security editor at The National Interest. Weichert hosts The National Security Hour on iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8 p.m. Eastern. He hosts a companion show on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” Weichert consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. His writings have appeared in numerous publications, among them Popular Mechanics, National Review, MSN, and The American Spectator. His books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. Weichert’s newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase at any bookstore. Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
