In recent months, Ukraine’s campaign against Russia’s supply lines in the rear has yielded noticeable effects, particularly in the Russian-occupied region of Crimea. Originally annexed by Russia in 2014, the region is now facing a crippling shortage of fuel as supply trucks en route to the region have been targeted by Ukrainian drones. Trucks typically travel along the Novorossyisk highway, which connects Crimea to other Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine. The highway “is basically the backbone of Russian occupation in the south,” said Clément Molin, an analyst at the French-based think tank Atum Mundi.
Fuel Shortages in Crimea
Putin in 2022. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
In the last month, Ukraine carried out around 300 strikes against trucks and tankers in Russia’s backlines, with reports of drone attacks ramping up even further in recent weeks.
Granted, these are targets along the whole frontline, which stretches for thousands of kilometers, but the effects have been tangible for Moscow’s supply efforts. According to Robert Brovdi, Ukraine’s drone forces commander, military cargo traffic on the road decreased by 71% between late May and early June.
Ukraine’s drone strikes have had a tangible effect on the local population in Crimea, which is reeling from shortages of fuel and other supplies. “I walk to work now. Of course, this is less convenient than driving, but not a huge problem,” one resident of the city of Simferopol told an independent reporter. “All I’ve got to do now is buy a horse!” he added. In response to the shortages, the Moscow-appointed regional authorities have attempted to raise fuel prices to curb rising demand and limited supply. “Unfortunately, it does not appear possible to fully satisfy the demand for fuel at the current moment,” the Kremlin-appointed regional head, Sergei Aksyonov, admitted. As a result, most buses can no longer operate, and most civilians are forced to walk everywhere.
Crimea at Risk?
The regional authorities have also attempted to limit fuel sales to those who possess special vouchers only.
These methods have also done little to abate the effects of fuel shortages. Civilians now have to queue for hours just to fill up their cars. Recently, Russia’s Ministry of Energy acknowledged the problem facing Russia’s “Southern regions.” “Fuel and energy enterprises have recently been facing an increasing number of enemy air attacks, which have caused temporary difficulties in fuel supplies,” the Ministry said in a recent statement. In response, the ministry established a permanent HQ to address the fuel shortage in occupied Crimea.
President of Russia Vladimir Putin at the at the BRICS+ meeting (via videoconference). Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Unfortunately for the Russians, the land bridge along the Novorossiysk highway is the only reliable route into Crimea.
The Kerch Bridge, the bridge connecting Crimea to Krasnodar Krai in Russia, has been attacked by Ukraine multiple times. Although traffic is still allowed on the bridge, transporting fuel and other goods is incredibly risky. “I wouldn’t want to put a truck full of diesel on the Kerch Bridge right now—that’s just asking for trouble,” said Craig Kennedy, an expert in Russia’s oil industry and associate at Harvard University’s Davis Center. “So you’ll have to bring it in by land, via Mariupol. And there you’re vulnerable all along the way.”
The only other option is shipment by sea through the port of Sevastopol. The problem with this option is that it is immensely more costly and slower than ground transit, nor is it safer, as Ukrainian naval drones have also harassed the Russians in the Black Sea, leaving no other options but to take the risk along the Novorossiysk highway.
Striking the Russian Back Line
So far, the effects of Ukraine’s drone campaign have been felt mainly by civilians, although some Russian military analysts have been sounding the alarm bells. “The strikes that empty fuel stations for civilians also affect supplies to troops in the south,” said Rybar, a pro-Russian (although somewhat pessimistic) military analyst. “The logistics crisis does not distinguish between military and civilian needs; it hits everything at once.”
Just a few days ago, Ukraine struck the bridge in Chonhar in Northern Crimea, which links the peninsula with the rest of Ukraine. The bridge is frequently used to transport troops and supplies and has now been temporarily closed while repairs are underway.
Who’s Winning the Drone War?
Ukraine is not the only side that has been leveraging drone warfare to its advantage. Russia’s Rubikon unit (officially under the Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies) got singled out by Western media in 2025 for its persistent attacks against Ukrainian military units and backline logistics. Rubikon is one of many elite drone units that Russia currently operates to disrupt the Ukrainian Military both on the front and back lines.
What separates Ukraine from Russia, however, is that the Ukrainian deep rear extends into NATO territory. Poland has operated as a vital logistics and repair hub for Ukraine, which is virtually untouchable by Russia.
Meanwhile, Russia, as vast as it is, is still fair game. Its strikes behind the front lines are limited only by Ukraine’s technology and Moscow’s response, which has, for now, been lukewarm.
Although Russia possesses better deep-strike capabilities, Ukraine benefits from its border and partnership with NATO, which provides a substantial degree of safety while retaining the ability to strike Russia’s rear with near impunity.
About the Author: Issac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
