When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 without firing a shot, the world was impressed with Vladimir Putin and his use of hybrid warfare, which was seen as a revolutionary development in defense capabilities.
Putin was described as a 4D chess player who could easily outsmart the West. His favorite general, Valery Gerasimov, was considered a 21st-century military genius for developing his own doctrine, employing “Little Green Men” insurgents and a new brand of cognitive warfare to execute successful sneak attacks to great propaganda effect.
T-90M. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Russian T-90 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The Russian people rejoiced at the taking of Crimea, and Putin’s approval ratings soared.
But now people in Moscow are wondering if protecting far-flung Crimea is even possible with the pesky Ukrainians sending combat drones and ballistic missiles against the peninsula on a regular basis.
Ukraine Has Created a Russian Highway of Death
The Ukrainians have created an almost full-on blockade around Crimea.
The much-ballyhooed Novorossiya highway, a land bridge that was a jewel in Putin’s crown, has become a “highway of death.”
It runs from Rostov-on-Don through occupied Ukraine to Crimea. Russian trucks trying to transport food and ammunition have been picked off at will by Ukrainian drones.
Fuel Is Difficult to Buy
Other drone strikes have destroyed bridges and energy infrastructure in Crimea. Fuel for civilian and military transportation has been in short supply.
The Bulwark news outlet claimed that Crimea had ordered a stoppage of fuel sales to people clamoring to gas up their vehicles. Only government cars and mass transit vehicles are allowed to have their tanks filled.
T-90 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Electricity Is Not Reliable
That’s not all. Power outages are becoming more common, frustrating the Russians who live there.
It is shaping up to be a long summer for the proud Crimeans who once believed they were invincible after the Russian annexation.
Now Crimeans are trying to leave for safer areas. Thousands of cars have lined up to cross the Kerch Strait Bridge, the Bulwark wrote. There are also food shortages.
Tourism Is Negatively Affected
Crimea has long been a vacation hotspot for Russians looking to escape the rat race in Moscow and St. Petersburg. But now tourism is down. The area is considered dangerous and is no longer a safe tourist destination.
“Recent data from travel websites show that nearly 80 percent of hotel bookings on the peninsula have been canceled.
While a few brave or stupid souls are still heading to Crimea, far more people are getting out,” according to the Bulwark.
The Nation Looks to Blame Putin
Ukraine has sensed victory over Crimea. This has shocked the Kremlin and could eventually rob Putin of his most cherished landholding.
The idea is to wage psychological warfare against the Russians.
If Crimea could be taken out, ordinary Russians would blame the Russian dictator for not minding the store and give the Ukrainians credit for bringing the war to ordinary Russians.
Zelensky is Pouncing for the Kill
Volodymyr Zelensky senses this weakness and is ordering more drone and missile strikes against Crimea.
This will continue to affect living conditions, with less food and fuel as the summer months kick in and temperatures rise. Long gas lines around Russian cities have made Russia realize that there is a cost to fighting Ukraine.
What About a Full-fledged Ukrainian Invasion of Crimea?
Zelensky could even try to invade Crimea with troops to retake it. Already, Moscow is diverting valuable S-400 missile defense systems to the peninsula. He may have to send more Russian soldiers to defend against a potential Ukrainian attack.
This would frighten the Russian person in the street who shelters in place in Russia’s top cities after aerial bombardments by drones and ballistic missiles.
Was the Crimea Operation a Mistake?
All of these elements of warfare have some wondering if picking a fight with Ukraine has been worth it.
The annexation of Crimea was seen as a glorious event 12 years ago, but now many may have second thoughts: the invasion, however successful at first, was not a good idea.
For the longest time, Russian television, the source from which most of the country gets its news, created never-ending propaganda that the war was being fought successfully and that it would never reach Russia’s borders.
Ukraine Has Seized the Initiative
But with the incessant daily strikes on energy infrastructure near Moscow, even the most nationalist and patriotic Russian must feel that the war has entered a period in which Ukraine may have the upper hand.
Gasoline is running short and being rationed across the country. Nightly drone raids send Russians cowering as they notice heavy black smoke and hear explosions that rock their apartments.
When the War Was Seen as Glorious
The war has come home to the Russians, and Putin must be aware that Ukraine has found an open wound that it can poke and prod to create even more fear among the Russian populace.
The war can be traced back to the annexation of Crimea, and Russia was overjoyed with the action that made it seem that the country was a leader on the world stage.
Putin was seen as a genius for delivering the righteous territory that had long been considered rightfully Russian.
Glory Days Are Over
Now those heady days are a distant memory.
Ukraine has regained the initiative. Russian civilian targets are not safe from enemy missiles and drones, and the attacks come every night.
This is not what the Russian people signed up for, and Putin’s propaganda apparatus has little good news to counteract the difficulties the Russian people are now experiencing.
Despite the latest humiliations and suffering among Russian civilians, Putin is not about to give up the war.
Russia has a long history of shared sacrifice during times of conflict. The people are strong-willed and not about to throw in the towel over gas lines and other frustrations.
But the military operation has entered a new phase in which Ukraine has the upper hand, and the symbolic value of Crimea’s suffering is grounds for the Russian people to question the war and its architect.
Civilian support for the conflict with Ukraine may dwindle to its lowest level on record, and that is music to Zelensky’s ears.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
