Putin on the ropes? Place your bets and try to predict the future for a potential big payday – it’s a new trend sweeping the world.
By now, you likely realize you can bet on the outcome of geopolitical events.
Use websites or apps like Polymarket and Kalshi, and bet on predictions about anything from elections to war victories. Now, the betting market has targeted what will become of Russia and specifically the future of Vladimir Putin.
If Putin Goes Bye Bye, Millions Can Be Made
Putin in May of 2026. Image Credit_ Creative Commons
Some adventurous participant in these schemes has much riding on whether the Russian dictator can stay in office. An anonymous Polymarket user has bet $400,000 that Putin will somehow step down or be removed from the throne by the end of this year.
This bettor may be from Ukraine.
He or she has a Ukrainian flag as an avatar and is nicknamed “ZnotluvuiSamez.”
This is one risky venture. We have written many articles about whether Putin could be removed from office somehow or if he could even die in some way.
Putin Is Not Going Anywhere
My conclusion is that the Russian Dear Leader is healthy and able to suppress all forms of dissent, keeping him in office indefinitely. He controls the military, intelligence agencies, internal security, politics, the economy, media, diplomacy, and the entire civil society with deep ties to the Russian Orthodox Church.
I would disagree with the $400,000 wager. However, I will not put my money where my mouth is and bet on these platforms.
The risk is too high, and my cash flow is too limited. But our mystery bettor seems to be convinced that Putin is a goner.
Details About the Putin Bet
On Polymarket, participants can respond to geopolitical questions.
In this instance, the query is “Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?” ZnotluvuiSamez responded with $409,000 worth of “Yes” contracts, according to Forbes.
Fifty thousand dollars of the predictions were purchased on July 1.
Putin Meeting with Staff Russian Federation Creation Commons Photo
High Risk, High Reward
Our bettor is taking a huge risk. Bookmakers reckon that Putin only has a 12 percent chance of relinquishing control this year.
The anonymous bettor has no qualms about taking such lopsided odds, and the bet could be seen as more of a winner as the war goes increasingly worse for Putin.
The Russian president is not up for re-election until 2030. ZnotluvuiSamez is undeterred. He or she could win as much as $2.5 million if correct in the prediction, NBC News claimed.
Money Bet on Crimea Changing Hands
Another large wager has been placed on the outcome of the war.
There is a $61,000 bet on Russia losing Crimea to Ukraine.
That is also quite the risk, as the peninsula is considered holy ground by Russia and worth fighting to the death for. The website gives the Crimea loss a 12 percent chance.
The Scourge of Cheating With Insider Information
Prediction markets have been successful with revenue and user growth.
Many platforms are copying Kalshi and Polymarket, but the industry has not been without controversy. Political insiders who help shape policy and who have access to classified information have also bet on geopolitical outcomes.
American Regulators Are Playing Watchdog
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is trying to crack down. They have proposed new rules and limitations for betting markets and are seeking public comments on the best way to regulate the online betting schemes.
Jail Time for Transgressors
During the U.S. operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier, allegedly with insider information, won more than $400,000 on Polymarket betting on Maduro’s removal.
“The DOJ said the soldier was charged with unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain.
The soldier made 13 bets on Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets in late December last year, just days before the raid, and as a result, he earned approximately $409,881.
In a separate incident in late April, Kalshi announced it had suspended the accounts of three political candidates who placed bets on the outcome of their own election races,” according to Forbes.
Prediction with Artificial Intelligence
I’m no stranger to the world of prediction. I was once the Founder and CEO of a firm that predicted global events using artificial intelligence.
We used software rather than betting markets and were quite successful, especially when forecasting financial markets and elections.
There was no way to manipulate the system or put a thumb on the scale, and I had no insider information that would have helped predict the outcome.
Prediction Markets Have Been Around for Decades
Betting markets are not a new phenomenon. There was once a prediction scheme for presidential elections run by college professors.
The media used to report on these outcomes, but in the era of mobile phone apps, anyone can lay a bet on a prediction and be rewarded monetarily.
Gamification of Betting
Is this a good idea? Betting can lead to addiction, and the apps make it easy to “gamify” the user experience, enabling users to quickly and easily wager large amounts on a prediction with no qualms.
Plus, these bets should not be considered a credible way to look at geopolitical outcomes. But they do represent the wisdom of the crowd and are something fun to read when journalists track down big winners and losers on the platforms.
Play It Safer and Bet On Wall Street
I don’t recommend getting involved. If you are interested in gambling, take a look at the stock market. These bets can also win big bucks, but you are obviously taking a risk that large legitimate institutions also share.
Equities can be used for dividend payments, and there are many ways to conduct your own research and consult with expert financial advisors before buying or selling shares.
So watch out for prediction markets.
The upside is enticing, but a loss can wipe you out. The betting can lead to the chance of becoming addicted and losing your nest egg.
But prediction apps are not going away. Kalshi and Polymarket have the blessing of many who like to predict the future.
Crowdsourcing and putting your money where your mouth is can be a good barometer of what will really happen. Just be careful; your account could be drained by some bad wagers, and we don’t want to encourage such risky behavior.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
