As Ukraine continues its long-range strikes against targets deep inside Russian territory, the betting markets are signaling something interesting: the world seems to think that Vladimir Putin’s days as Russian president are coming to a close.
While most analysts still don’t predict an imminent ousting of the Russian president or a collapse within the Kremlin, traders on the prediction market Polymarket have increased the implied probability that Putin might simply step down some time this year.
Tu-22M3 Russian Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Tu-22M3 Bomber Russian Air Force. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
It’s a surge in betting that comes after weeks of severe damage caused by Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and military facilities.
Combined with mounting economic pressure, a labor shortage that is only set to worsen, and the likelihood that Russia cannot afford to continue the war effort, the speculation about when and how Putin will leave office is only growing.
Putin, it seems, has a lot of difficult choices ahead – and gamblers seem to think one of his options is simply leaving office.
What the Prediction Markets Suggest
According to reports, a newly created account on Polymarket, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market where users buy and sell contracts tied to future events, placed a series of large wagers predicting that Putin will not be president by the end of 2026.
The purchases were large enough to shift the market’s implied odds up, attracting widespread attention among analysts and traders.
The bet could simply reflect an individual’s confidence that geopolitics and the impact of war will force Putin out of office – but it could also suggest that somebody with inside knowledge is making large bets based on their understanding of the current dynamics in Moscow and Kyiv.
This Isn’t A Poll
It’s important to note that prediction markets do not forecast events in the same way an intelligence assessment or poll might.
Instead, the prices on these platforms simply reflect what traders collectively believe is the probability that an event will occur, and participants risk their real money on their predictions.
The recent purchases have pushed the market’s implied odds of Putin leaving office higher than they were several weeks ago, but traders are still not pricing it in.
On prediction markets like Polymarket, prices reflect the judgment of participants who risk their money – but as of early July, contracts predicting Putin would no longer be Russia’s president by the end of 2026 were trading at around 12 cents on the dollar, which implies about a 12% probability.
In other words, traders believe that there is a greater chance of Putin leaving office than they did before, but they still assign a significantly higher probability – around 88% – to him remaining in power through the end of 2026.
The news simply means that if Putin leaves office this year, those who have placed bets on Polymarket stand to make significant sums on their wagers.
Growing Discontent Inside Russia’s Elite
The prediction markets may still suggest that Putin is likely to remain in office for some time, but recent reporting has exposed some frustration with his leadership even within the Russian establishment.
In May, The Guardian, citing multiple current and former officials as well as other sources close to the Kremlin, reported on the “profound disappointment” they have with the Russian president.
The report described concern over inflation, tax increases, internet restrictions, and more – and revealed how insiders see Putin as becoming more insulated with a shrinking circle of advisors around him.
Several insiders even suggested that Putin is determined to continue the war despite mounting setbacks and revealed that some of his closest advisors are willing to present an inaccurate picture of conditions on the battlefield to encourage him to continue fighting.
Nonetheless, dissatisfaction alone is unlikely to result in a coup, and so far there has been no organized faction capable of challenging Putin’s authority – and the country’s security services are still providing the Kremlin with powerful protection from any potential internal threats. Putin, it seems, is safe for now.
Former Kremlin Loyalist Turns Against Putin
The extraordinary case of Ilya Remeslo, a former pro-Kremlin lawyer who spent years attacking opposition figures, is also worth revisiting in assessing the likelihood that Putin will remain in office. In a manifesto that was published earlier this year, Remeslo called Putin a “thief” and a “war criminal,” demanding his resignation and arguing that the invasion of Ukraine has become a disaster for Russia.
His sudden reversal sparked interest because it was a shock to both critics and supporters of the Kremlin – and reports later revealed that Remeslo was moved to a psychiatric hospital after the manifesto was released.
With dissatisfaction growing even among his most ardent supporters and discontent rising among the general population amid the ongoing fuel crisis, it may only be a matter of time before Putin’s luck changes.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
