Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired at least two missiles at commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, causing damage to ships during a week of funeral ceremonies being held for the country’s late Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
What Just Happened Near Oman
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said that it received a report at 2119 UTC of an incident that occurred eight nautical miles east of Limah, Oman.
Iran’s Drones That Russia Is Using. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Iran F-14 Tomcat Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
“A tanker has reported being hit by an unknown projectile on the port side, causing a fire, whilst traveling southbound,” UKMTO said in a statement. “No casualties or environmental impact reported. Authorities are investigating. Vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity to UKMTO.
Other reports described how the IRGC fired at least two missiles at commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. According to two U.S. officials, both ships sustained major damage. One of the vessels targeted was said to be a liquefied natural gas tanker operated by Qatari LNG shipping company Nakilat. Reports described how the ship was struck on its port side near its engine room. The Wall Street Journal reported that a fire started in the engine room and filled the space with smoke. Citing a recording from the ship, the outlet claimed that the fire prevented sailors from assessing the damage in full, but that all crew were safe and “mustered on the starboard side.”
According to Axios, the other ship was a Saudi-flagged crude oil supertanker, believed to be the Wedyan. The ship was damaged off the coast of Oman, though the full nature of the damage remained unclear on Tuesday.
Some outlets also reported that an LPG tanker managed by ADNOV was diverted by Iranian forces away from Omani waters and into Iranian waters.
Qatar Blames Iran
Qatar blamed Iran for the strike on Al Rekayyar, but Tehran had not issued a formal response by Tuesday morning.
The incident is particularly interesting given Qatar’s current role in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, with Doha hosting the most recent round of indirect technical talks.
Qatari officials, working with Pakistan, are mediating the talks in hopes of bringing both sides back to direct negotiations to establish a lasting peace deal by the end of the 60-day ceasefire set by the recently signed memorandum of understanding (MOU).
The attack, therefore, puts Qatar in a difficult position. It is presently a mediator in the crisis, but it is also the owner of one of the vessels targeted by Iran.
Why Now?
The timing is also notable because it takes place during a period of national mourning in Iran, and during a week when Washington and Tehran had effectively agreed to suspend military activity.
On July 3, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the United States would pause negotiations and military strikes out of respect for the week-long mourning period, telling reporters that he had given Iran “a week off” because of the ceremonies.
The pause was intended to reduce tensions while millions of Iranians gathered for commemorations before Khamenei’s burial and to provide some level of security to the dozens of foreign diplomats and officials traveling to Iran to attend the funeral proceedings.
Although there was no formal written ceasefire, both sides managed to refrain from direct military exchanges as the ceremonies began – a feat that should not be all that surprising given that the MOU, which also prohibits military exchanges, is currently in effect.
The strikes in Hormuz, therefore, violate two active ceasefire agreements – one formal, one informal.
Perhaps It’s Not All That Surprising
At the same time, the attack is not likely to come as a surprise to most analysts.
Since the MOU was signed, Tehran has repeatedly warned that, despite opening the waterway under the interim agreement, it retains sole authority to determine which ships can access the strait and which routes they must take.
Last week, Iran’s joint military command warned that all oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz must use approved routes or face a “forceful response.”
The attacks could be met with an even more forceful response from Washington, if recent history is anything to go by.
On June 26, an Iranian drone struck a commercial cargo ship moving through the Strait of Hormuz – even after the MOU was signed.
It prompted the United States to launch its own retaliatory strikes against missile and drone facilities on Iran’s coastline. The strikes also took out Iranian military sites and radar installations.
The Pentagon said that the strikes were intended to restore freedom of navigation after Iran violated the ceasefire agreement.
That exchange of fire led to a pause in direct peace talks, with both sides moving the discussions to Doha, where mediators are now facilitating technical talks to resume full negotiations.
If the U.S. responds, it will do so during a period of national mourning and while foreign officials are present in Tehran, and it might also risk the full collapse of already fragile talks.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
