Should NATO accept Ukraine as a full member? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is enthusiastically answering in the affirmative.
Zelensky has asked the alliance to add his country to the list of permanent partners during the NATO summit in Turkey.
Ukraine War Map. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The plucky and determined Ukrainian leader has claimed that his country has one of the most advanced and experienced militaries in the West, making it a reliable ally for NATO.
Don’t Leave Ukraine Out of the Mix
Zelensky believes that Ukraine, by surviving for years against a larger country with more arms and people, has shown that its admission to the alliance would be worth it.
The Ukrainian leader has pressed for accession even though it would surely rankle Vladimir Putin.
“I have a question for you. Do you really believe it? Do you really believe it would be right to leave outside NATO a country and a people with this level of defensive capability?” Zelenskyy said at NATO’s defense industry forum.
Aerial drone image of Bradley Fighting Vehicle crews from the 1st Armor Brigade Combat Team, 3rd Infantry Division, conducting Table XII gunnery at Fort Stewart, Ga. December 7, 2016.
“If we already have these capabilities, if Ukrainians already know how to fight like this, then it does make sense for these capabilities to become a part of the alliance’s collective defense that would make all of us stronger,” he added.
Ukraine Is on the Precipice of Victory
Ukraine has found a winning strategy against Russia. Frequent drone attacks on its energy infrastructure have hurt the Russians.
Ukraine has hit oil refineries and other facilities hard, creating shortages and long lines at the gas pumps.
Ukraine has also used its one-way kamikaze craft to punish other civilian targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg to make ordinary Russians feel the pain of war.
Moscow Can’t Find a Way to Win
Russia is also paying the price at the front lines. It continues to bleed casualties. There are around 30 to 35,000 dead or wounded each month. Russian attacks keep stalling.
The military is only gaining a fourth of the ground it seized at the beginning of the war each day.
NATO Is a Dirty Word in Russia
Putin considers Ukraine’s joining NATO a red line, and the alliance’s expansion after the Cold War has made the Russian leader irate.
He saw that Russia’s Near Abroad was turning into Western territory. The alliance has steadily encroached on Russia’s sovereignty, and he has long believed that NATO wanted to instigate a policy of regime change against his leadership.
Trump May Not Favor Ukraine Joining the Alliance
However, President Donald Trump is not interested in pushing for Ukraine’s membership in the alliance. Having a country that is already fighting a war with Russia would be dangerous. The war could spread to other countries, and Moscow would resist peace proposals that could stop the fighting.
Can Zelensky Make His Case to Trump?
Trump will meet with Zelensky personally at the summit in Ankara on July 8. The two have had an up-and-down relationship that many observers believe could be better.
Trump is looking for some type of mediation effort that could result in a ceasefire. Zelensky wants Russia to relinquish occupied territory, including Crimea. Putin requires a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO.
“I think they both want to make a deal.… I think we’re going to get it settled, hopefully soon,” Trump said as he met the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Ukraine Can Point to Military Success
Zelensky is optimistic that the West will see that his country could be an effective member of NATO. Ukraine has made itself into a “drone superpower.” His soldiers have fought the Russians to a standstill. Zelensky is still firmly in power and has become an effective wartime president.
The Ukrainians seem to have seized the initiative and have the momentum in the war’s fifth year.
He said new Ukrainian missiles and drones – “the technology of fighting at a distance” – represented “a revolutionary change” in warfare, although he added “we take no pride in this,” because it had been forced on the country in order “to defend our country, our people, our children.”
The Ukrainian leader is ready to improve his country’s strategic position and pursue membership in NATO despite the odds.
Many countries in the alliance would love to have Ukraine join, but it will take leadership by the United States for that to happen.
Shortage of Patriot Air Defense Interceptors
One short-term goal of Zelensky is to obtain more Patriot air defense interceptors.
Russia is using drone and ballistic missile saturation attacks against Kyiv and other cities. This will be a point of discussion when Zelensky meets Trump.
Due to the war against Iran, the United States is also running low on Patriot interceptors.
An Attack on One Is an Attack on All
The broader discussion of NATO membership may need to continue at future alliance meetings. All current members of NATO would have to agree to allow Ukraine to join.
Some countries may oppose Ukraine’s bid because it would trigger Article V of NATO’s mutual defense clause, plunging Europe into a broader war.
Zelensky Is Playing His Hand Well
But Zelensky is right to try to maximize the strength of his country’s strategic position. NATO accession could come after the war, even though Russia would be strongly against it.
The Ukrainians are in a better military position now than a year ago, when Russia had a firmer grip on its held territory.
Zelensky has nothing to lose by asking for NATO membership. He can continue to play the role of a global statesman and seek new ways to help his country survive the war.
While Putin would never agree to Ukraine’s membership, Zelensky can still make the case that Ukraine would strengthen the alliance by improving its defense forces, given how well the country has fought off Russia militarily.
There are credible arguments against Ukraine’s admission to NATO, but now is the right time to pursue it. Ukraine is in a strong position, and membership is always a possibility that could strengthen Europe and weaken Russia.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
