Russia Is Overwhelming Ukraine’s Air Defenses: Russia’s most recent overnight missile barrage against Kyiv was clearly another attempt at taking advantage of Ukraine’s well-documented shortage of Patriot interceptors — and it worked.
Ukraine said Russia launched 35 missiles overnight, including 27 ballistic missiles, alongside 185 drones. Air defenses intercepted just one of the ballistic missiles, allowing the remainder to strike Kyiv and other regions. At least 10 people were killed and dozens more wounded as residential buildings, infrastructure, a school, and the Lithuanian Embassy suffered damage.
Exercise Artemis Strike is a German-led tactical live fire exercise with live Patriot and Stinger missiles at the NATO Missile Firing Installation in Chania, Greece from Oct. 31-Nov. 09. Over 200 U.S. soldiers and approximately 650 German airmen will be participating in the realistic training within a combined construct, exercise the rigors associated with force projection and educate operators on their air missile defense systems. The 10th Army Air Missile Defense Command will deploy, operate and fire live missiles within a tactical scenario, under Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe operational readiness evaluation criteria.
German soldiers assigned to Surface Air and Missile Defense Wing 1 fire the Patriot weapons system at the NATO Missile Firing Installation (NAMFI) during Artemis Strike Nov. 7 in Chania, Greece. Artemis Strike is a German-led multinational air defense exercise. German soldiers Over 200 U.S. soldiers and approximately 650 German airmen will be participating in the realistic training within a combined construct, exercise the rigors associated with force projection and educate operators on their air missile defense systems. (Photo By Officer Candidate Sebastian Apel, Air Defence Missile Group 24)
The shocking figures show just how much Moscow appears to be changing its air campaign, where it eschews relying primarily on drones and cruise missiles and now uses large salvos of ballistic missiles that Ukraine struggles to intercept without sufficient Patriot interceptors.
The attack also came only hours after U.S. President Donald Trump publicly cast doubt on plans to allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missiles domestically, saying that he was “not sure” about moving forward with the deal.
Exploiting Ukraine’s Biggest Weakness
Russia’s most recent barrage did not come out of nowhere. Over the past month, Moscow has increased the number of ballistic missiles used in individual strikes as well as the frequency with which it deploys them. It has culminated in some of the most devastating ballistic missile attacks of the war, with a strike on July 19 seeing Russia fire more than 40 missiles.
The latest attack seems to have been designed around the same concept, whereby Russia launched 185 drones alongside 35 missiles, forcing Ukrainian air defenses to engage multiple types of incoming threats simultaneously before the 27 ballistic missiles reached their targets.
Unlike Shahed drones or cruise missiles, ballistic missiles travel several times the speed of sound and descend on steep trajectories, leaving defenders with only seconds to respond.
Patriot is the only operational system in Ukraine that is capable of reliably intercepting many of those weapons, making the country’s dwindling stockpile is its most significant vulnerability. And it is one that Russia is clearly exploiting.
Ukraine Needs Patriots
The latest attack only proved what Kyiv has been warning about for months: Patriot interceptor shortages are now a major strategic liability that could hand Moscow major victories.
Ukraine’s Air Force said that it intercepted just one of the 27 ballistic missiles launched overnight, marking one of the poorest interception rates recorded since Russia began intensifying its ballistic missile campaign in recent weeks. In a statement published on August 1, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the latest barrage demonstrated the urgent need for additional Patriot missiles.
“We lack missiles for the Patriot systems. And it is precisely this shortage of anti-ballistic interceptors that only encourages Russia to carry out such deadly strikes,” Zelenskyy said.
The Ukrainian president also said that the systems are better off used in Ukraine.
“It is crucial for our partners to understand that these systems are needed not somewhere in warehouses for hypothetical scenarios, but here and now, so that Russia’s war can be contained and stopped in Ukraine,” he said.
Trump Backtracks Over Patriot Deal
Following reports that President Trump had agreed to allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot interceptors domestically, and comments by the president himself that seemed to suggest as much, reports this week revealed how the president is now backtracking on those claims.
Speaking at a Cabinet meeting on Friday, July 31, the president said that he has not, in fact, agreed to allow Ukraine to build the interceptors it needs using its own manufacturing infrastructure.
“We have not agreed to that. We’re talking about it. But it’s a hard thing to give away, that kind of technology,” Trump said.
“These weapons are incredible. We have to be very careful about letting somebody build them,” he added.
The comments reflect Washington’s concern that the technological components used to create Patriot interceptors, considered the gold standard in missile interception, could be compromised by allowing manufacturing operations thousands of miles from the United States to handle them. Should details about the manufacturing process and internals of the interceptors fall into the wrong hands, the technology could be replicated by China, Russia, or other major adversaries.
He’s Definitely Backtracking
Trump says the deal is only being discussed, but previously, he indicated it was happening. During the NATO summit in Ankara on July 8, while appearing alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump publicly announced that the United States would allow Ukraine to manufacture Patriot interceptors under license – a major policy concession that Kyiv has been fighting for for years.
“We’re going to give a license to you to make Patriots. That’s pretty cool, right?” Trump told Zelenskyy. “This way he can’t complain that we’re not giving him enough. I said, ‘Make them yourself.'”
The remarks were widely interpreted as confirmation that the administration had approved licensed production in Ukraine, because President Trump explicitly stated that Washington would provide the license.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
