The conflict in Iran continues in the same cycle. The US bombs Iran, and then the sides trade retaliatory strikes. The US then suspends the air campaign because of diplomatic “breakthroughs,” the Iranian regime stalls, threatens, and then attacks its Gulf neighbors. Wash, rinse, repeat.
President Trump last week stated he was tiring of this seemingly endless cycle of stalling by the regime, and just days after threats to launch a new air offensive, the administration announced that they are pausing the air campaign and once again going to the diplomatic route, due to requests by the Gulf countries that want to sell their oil.
Soldiers from Echo Company, 1st Battalion, 81st Armor Regiment, 194th Armored Brigade, conduct gunnery training with the M1 Abrams tank, Jan. 14, 2025, at Brooks Range, on Fort Benning, Georgia. (U.S. Army photo by Joey Rhodes II)
CINCU, Romania – U.S. Army Soldiers of 1st Battalion, 66th Armored Regiment, 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, setup their M1 Abram Tanks during Getica Saber 17, July 10, 2017. Getica Saber 17 is a U.S.-led fire support coordination exercise and combined arms live fire exercise that incorporates six allied and partner nations with more than 4,000 Soldiers. Getica Saber 17 runs concurrent with Saber Guardian 17, a U.S. Army Europe-led, multinational exercise that spans across Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania with more than 25,000 service members from 22 allied and partner nations. Image Credit: US Military.
A U.S. Army M1 Abrams, assigned to 4th Battalion, 6th Infantry Regiment, 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division, fully emerges from the tank firing point to engage the simulated enemy at Novo Selo Training Area, Bulgaria, March 5, 2025. 1st Armored Division, a rotational force supporting V Corps, conducts training with engineers and tank operators in the European Theatre to maintain readiness and instill fundamental Soldier skills that are vital in maintaining lethality. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Kyle Kimble)
And in typical fashion, both Oman and Iran announced that they were “making progress” on a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz temporarily, while other long-term discussions could be had.
If this sounds familiar, it is because we’ve heard this several times already. But this time, perhaps it will work. Wash, rinse, repeat.
“Biggest Attack Since World War II” Called Off
The president, as he likes to do, threatened that the US had been prepared to launch the biggest military attack since World War II but had been talked out of it by the US’ Gulf allies and partners.
“We were all set to go, but when the allies asked to call it off, you got to sort of say, ‘well, let’s see,’” he said.
Trump said on Sunday that he had spoken with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and asked him, “Would you rather have us do this or not?” Trump said the crown prince replied, “We would much prefer a deal as opposed to an attack because you don’t know where these attacks lead.”
On his Truth Social page, the president said that he was calling off the strikes because “the perimeters of a deal have been agreed to” that would open up the Strait of Hormuz and ensure Iran never has a nuclear weapon.
“Based on this request, I have agreed, for the future benefit of the WORLD and, likewise, the survival of a successful and prosperous Iran, to cancel the attack, subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.”
Trump added that the deal “would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat”.
“The Country of Israel joins me in this commitment. Get to work, everybody, and get it DONE,” he wrote.
And of course, Iran on Monday said it had no plans to hold direct talks with Washington, despite President Trump claiming that negotiations would start today.
Meanwhile, the Iranians were reportedly behind the cyber attacks on the water supply in Minnesota. The more things change…
Oman And Iran Working On A Temporary Deal To Open The Strait
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said talks with Oman about a mechanism for ships to traverse the Strait of Hormuz were “nearing completion and in their final stages,” according to Iranian state media.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said the talks were exclusively between Iran and Oman and did not involve any third party.
“The issue of Iran and Oman reaching a mechanism that safeguards our interests is not new and has been under discussion for a long time,” he said.
“We are now going to reach an understanding on a route acceptable to both sides – neither the northern route nor the southern route – but one that respects the sovereign rights of both sides and safeguards our national interests and security,” Baghaei said in an interview with Iranian-run state television.
No Mention Was Made of Iran’s Insistence On Collecting Tolls
Neither Baghaei nor Aragchi mentioned whether Iran is prepared to permanently drop its demand that it should be able to collect tolls from transiting commercial vessels, or whether those negotiations would lead to a fully reopened waterway.
Will the president’s decision to forego further air strikes at the moment open the door for an off-ramp, or will it just embolden Iran further? If the events of the past few months show anything, it’s that Iran will only see this as more leverage.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications
