The war in Ukraine is heating up in ways not seen in years.
First, the Russians are clearly making decisive strides on the battlefront itself in Eastern Ukraine, as Russian troops are mere kilometers from the two remaining Ukrainian Fortress Cities.
Vladimir Putin in Dec of 2020 Creative Commons Image
Putin in Meeting In January 2023 Creative Commons Photo
Most experts assess that those Fortress Cities will fall.
Second, the Ukrainians began a desperate wave of sustained drone strikes deep inside Russia meant to disrupt the logistical chain supplying the Russian frontline forces.
Now, that drone campaign has reached a new phase.
A New Wave of War
The latest Ukrainian drone strike came last night, when Russia claimed it successfully intercepted 456 Ukrainian drones during one of the largest attacks of the war.
Those strikes hit multiple regions within Russia–including Tatarstan–600 miles inside Russia.
One of the most serious of those drone strikes occurred in Nizhnekamsk, which is an industrial city in Tatarstan.
Ukrainian forces said they targeted the TANECO oil refinery operated by the Russian oil company Tatneft.
Multiple videos have been verified showing smoke billowing from the refinery in the wake of that attack.
That TANECO facility processed 17 million metric tons of crude oil back in 2024.
Per Russian authorities, 13 people were killed and 39 wounded in the Ukrainian strikes on Nizhnekamsk. Moscow claims at least one child was among the dead.
Meanwhile, Russia accused Ukraine of purposely attacking civilians in what it is describing as a terror campaign.
Russian authorities have officially opened a terrorism investigation into the matter in accordance with those claims.
Kyiv has argued that its long-range drone strikes are directed only against facilities supporting Russia’s military and war economy rather than civilians.
Of course, Russian authorities counter that Ukraine’s recent strikes on Wildberry factories (the Russian version of Amazon) undercut Kyiv’s claims (though Kyiv retorts that those warehouses are being used to store Russian military equipment bound for the front).
Ukrainian drones also targeted a petrochemical complex in Russia’s Tyumen region on Monday. Ukrainian officials highlighted that the attack caused a fire that created significant damage.
Local Russian authorities confirmed that drones caused the fire, but they refused to specify which facility was damaged by the attack.
A pattern has arisen showcasing the way in which Ukraine is striking deep within Russia, targeting critical infrastructure nodes, as part of a wider push by Kyiv to drain the warfighting capability of Russia, even as Russian forces continue taking ground in Ukraine itself–and as Ukraine’s air defense interceptor arsenals are at critical levels (with little hope of replenishment now that many of those finite systems are being used by the West to protect against Iranian strikes in the Middle East).
Can Ukraine Stop Russia’s Advance in Eastern Ukraine?
Just a few days ago, on Aug. 6, Ukrainian drones struck two other Russian refineries in Yaroslavl, which is more than 400 miles from the Ukrainian border.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims that another refinery was struck in Bashkortostan, 800 miles from the front.
But that Yaroslavl facility was one of Russia’s largest refineries. It processes 15 million metric tons of crude oil annually and produces gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other important petroleum products.
The Yaroslavl facility was struck the previous night, as well as an additional four times in May.
On Aug. 8, Ukrainian drones hit a major refinery in Krasnodar, causing another fire that Russian authorities claimed had been extinguished.
Eighteen Russian refineries were targeted by an increasingly expansive Ukrainian drone operation back in July.
The previous month, Ukraine had suffered 17 refinery attacks. Ukraine’s campaign has extended to pipelines, ports, and even tankers connected with Russia’s immense petroleum industry.
There have been a total of 30 attacks on Russian oil infrastructure since July. These include strikes against five large tankers and five pieces of port infrastructure. Two pipelines were hit during that time, too.
One of the facilities targeted last month was the Omsk refinery, which is more than 1,500 miles from the Ukrainian border.
Earlier attacks have demonstrated Ukraine’s ability to reach Russian energy infrastructure on the Baltic Sea as well.
Taken together, these attacks are harming Russian refinery operations, as the Ukrainian military intended.
The Damage to Russia
In fact, Bloomberg assessed that the attacks resulted in Russian processing barely 3.6 million barrels of crude oil per day last month–the lowest monthly level since May 2022, and one-third below the normal seasonal level.
To give you a measure of things, between 2020 and 2025, Russian refineries processed upwards of 5.6 million barrels per day.
Russia has repaired many of the damaged facilities and strengthened its air defenses. Moscow has also increasingly reported shooting down hundreds of Ukrainian drones during individual attack waves.
Moscow has also directed its own large-scale missile and drone attacks against Ukraine in retaliation. For example, 37 people in Kharkiv were wounded in a Russian reprisal strike.
The Aug. 10 attacks showcased the growing geographic reach of the Ukrainian campaign to stunt whatever battlefield gains Russian forces at the front are making. Refineries and industrial plants within Russia are now repeatedly coming under attack.
It remains to be seen whether these Ukrainian attacks are enough to halt Russian advances on the battlefield.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is the Senior National Security Editor. He also manages The Weichert Brief on Substack. Weichert also hosts “National Security Talk” on Rumble. He is the author of four bestselling national security books, the most recent of which is A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (Encounter Books). Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
