Kyiv says that Russia has lost 1.5 million personnel since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
On Wednesday, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Moscow’s cumulative personnel losses now stood at 1,480,750, including a further 1,450 casualties over the last 24 hours.
Tu-95 Bear Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Tu-95 Bomber Russian Air Force. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Kyiv has not offered a specific breakdown of those killed and wounded, but Ukraine also alleges that Russia has lost 354 helicopters, 12,300 tanks, 25,230 armored combat vehicles, 48,641 artillery systems, and 440 aircraft throughout the full-scale invasion.
450,000 Russian Deaths?
In July, a paper published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank claimed Russia’s battlefield casualties had totaled some 1.4 million from the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 until June 2026.
The report said these figures included up to 450,000 fatalities.
CSIS described the figures as historically exceptional, concluding: “No major power has suffered anywhere near these numbers of casualties or fatalities in any war since World War II.”
The think tank estimated that Russia was losing more than 30,000 personnel per month in 2026, potentially exceeding recruitment of roughly 27,000 troops per month.
It also put Ukrainian casualties at between 525,000 and 625,000 through June, including an estimated 125,000 to 150,000 deaths.
Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told Reuters this week that Ukraine was “slowly losing the war” and had only months to make major changes.
Yet he also insisted Ukraine still had “every chance” of turning the situation around, arguing that Kyiv needed faster innovation and a clearer strategy.
Last week, protests backing Fedorov, who Zelenskyy fired as Defense Minister in July, also took place in Kyiv.
Slow Movement on the Ground
The Institute for the Study of War reported Tuesday that Ukrainian troops had recently advanced north of Kupyansk and around Borova.
At the same time, Russian forces continued offensive operations across several sectors of eastern Ukraine, although ISW recorded no confirmed Russian advances around Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, or Oleksandrivka on August 24 and 25.
Kyiv, meanwhile, is intensifying a long-range campaign intended to raise the economic cost of sustaining the war for Moscow.
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, two units at the Astrakhan gas processing plant, and the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov Oblast. The latter reportedly suspended operations following the attack.
Russia is now expected to extend its diesel export ban through September as domestic fuel shortages persist and refineries remain offline following Ukrainian attacks, Reuters reported. An extension through the end of 2026 has also been discussed.
On Wednesday, another Ukrainian drone attack destroyed a Wildberries logistics warehouse in Russia’s Tambov region.
Regional governor Yevgeny Pervyshov said the facility was “completely destroyed by fire” after flames spread across an area roughly equivalent to 14 soccer fields.
Yet Russia retains the ability to inflict serious damage on Ukraine.
Russian forces launched 150 drones as well as ballistic and anti-radiation missiles during the night of August 24-25, according to Ukraine’s Air Force.
Ukrainian officials said the attacks struck residential, agricultural, railway, and energy infrastructure.
Ukraine recently received a small shipment of U.S.-made Patriot interceptors, but Zelenskyy says Kyiv currently receives only about 1% of U.S. Patriot production when it needs 5%.
Russian Tensions With NATO Surge
On Monday, the Russian embassy in London said that the United Kingdom risked paying a “higher price” if it continued aiding Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil.
It did not specify what form a Russian retaliation against the UK might take.
The statement was issued in the wake of reports that drones manufactured by a pair of British firms have been used in attacks on industrial and military targets this year.
U.S. intelligence continues to warn that Russia could launch an attack on a NATO member state. On Tuesday, the director of the CIA visited Moscow for secret talks, prompting concern that a major escalation could be imminent.
It is also thought that Poland or the nearby Baltic states, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, are likely targets for a Russian attack.
Not everyone is confident that such a move would be in Putin’s favor. Marek Kohv, head of Estonia’s Security and Resilience Program at the International Center for Defense and Security, told LRT.it: “I do not see how Putin could reduce the pressure Ukraine is putting on Russia by attacking the Baltic states or Poland.
“I think it would only further unite Europe in supporting Ukraine and taking action against various Russian capabilities or assets that it has here,” he went on.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
