President Donald Trump doesn’t seem to believe in surprise when it comes to military attacks.
Throughout the Iran War, he has frequently spoken about wanting to attack specific locations or targets, often stating in interviews or at rallies that he’s thinking about going forward with such attacks. Sometimes he has carried out those attacks, and other times he hasn’t.
Gas Prices in Davenport, Florida. Image by National Security Journal.
And now, after a couple of weeks of implying that he might strike Iran again after the midterm elections in November, the president is hinting that he might do so before the vote next month.
According to The Atlantic, as the Iran War remains in limbo, Pentagon planners are “weighing options” for such an attack, with U.S. Central Command in charge of drawing up the plans.
Administration officials told The Atlantic that the goal is to “reduce gas prices and demonstrate progress in the conflict before the vote.”
Would It Work?
The war on Iran is historically unpopular and has been ever since it began in February. Trump came back into office promising not to get into any more open-ended foreign wars, and the war represents a daily reminder that he’s broken that promise.
In addition, gas prices have stayed high all year, and voters have noticed.
And while Trump has attempted of late to shift blame to the oil refinery attacks in Russia and Ukraine, there’s little indication that voters are buying that explanation.
The Atlantic’s sources tell them that Trump’s goal is to “allow Trump to demonstrate strength and potentially declare some sort of victory,” with the midterm vote approaching.
Twenty-six ships from 13 partner and allied nations steam in formation with Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Nimitz (CVN 68) during a multinational maritime exercise as part of Fleet Exercise (FLEETEX) 250 in the Atlantic Ocean, June 25, 2026. Nimitz is underway taking part in FLEETEX 250, a series of structured multilateral training events at-sea, aimed at building cohesiveness, validating tactical procedures, and strengthening the interoperability of participating units—which include warships, aircraft, and crews from the U.S. and 13 partner and ally nations. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Julian Jaime)
However, it’s highly unlikely that Trump could pull off any “one weird trick” in Iran that would end the war, suddenly make it popular, or instantly reverse his party’s flagging political fortunes.
As The Atlantic noted, such an attack before the midterms would more likely bring that unpopular war back to the headlines when Americans vote.
Trump, for instance, could attack Kharg Island, the energy hub that he has threatened to attack multiple times throughout the war.
But doing so would almost certainly affect oil supplies, and it likely wouldn’t immediately drop gas prices.
The Atlantic cited data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing that, throughout the war, when the U.S. has resumed strikes after pausing them, crude oil prices have usually increased rather than decreased.
Will Walldorf, an international-affairs professor at Wake Forest University and a senior fellow at the think tank Defense Priorities, told The Atlantic that such a move would make little sense, since “military action has done nothing to drive down oil prices; in fact, it has done the opposite.”
Another possibility is a minor strike before the midterm elections, followed by a wider one after the vote.
Is This a TACO Moment?
Of course, it’s also possible that Trump is doing something he’s done multiple times throughout the war: Making apocalyptic threats about a major forthcoming attack to exert pressure on Iran to get them back to the negotiating table.
It’s part of the “Trump Always Chickens Out” (or TACO) theory of Trump’s second presidency, a coinage among Wall Street types in reference to Trump’s tariff threats.
In recent weeks, the Trump Administration, while occasionally threatening to restart the war, has pivoted to economic pressure, with the announcement in late September of Operation Economic Outcast, which is aimed at sanctioning other countries that continue to do business with Iran.
CNN this week reported that the Iranian regime “isn’t blinking” in the face of those economic threats.
“The regime isn’t willing to give any concessions on its nuclear program, and negotiations on freedom of transit through the Strait of Hormuz have repeatedly stalled,” CNN reported about the different efforts at economic pressure on Iran.
It’s unlikely to happen in the less than four weeks before the midterm elections.
Still, one thing that could lower gas prices and actually benefit Trump’s party would be an agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and bring the conflict to a peaceful end.
And, as luck would have it, as we were about to press, Trump seems to have ruled out any attack before the midterm. Well, at least for now.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
