Henry Olsen at The Washington Post is not some left-wing firebrand. He has always been a classical liberal. So when he makes a bold prediction about the outcome of today’s Midterm election, it comes from a place of fairness.
Writing in his usual column at the WaPo, Olsen has assessed that the Democrats will likely gain 20 seats in the United States House of Representatives and capture the United States Senate.
President Donald Trump greets President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, Friday, February 28, 2025, in the West Wing Lobby. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
President Donald Trump greets President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, Friday, February 28, 2025, in the West Wing Lobby. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
What’s more, Olsen’s analysis suggests the Democrats will win big in the various gubernatorial and state legislative races happening today.
Trump Lost His Way
The reason is simple: President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have declined because of unpopular wars, the affordability crisis, and a general concern over the perception of massive corruption in the Trump administration.
Plus, Trump and the GOP are working against historical trends that don’t usually favor the incumbent party in Midterm elections.
Olsen writes that Trump’s approval rating among registered and likely voters is at a paltry 38.8 percent on Election Day.
That’s George W. Bush at the height of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008 levels of unpopularity. And the country hasn’t even officially hit a recession (although that is likely coming).
The RealClearPolitics generic congressional ballot average shows Democrats leading Republicans by about 8.5 percent going into Election Day.
During the previous five Midterms, the president’s party received votes that did not exceed the president’s approval rating by more than 5.8 percent.
So, if one applies that rationale to this race, the Republican national House vote should be around 44.6 percent (give or take). Democrats will likely receive around 54 percent of the national House vote.
Henry Olsen also says Democrats will win 235 seats in the House of Representatives, a gain of 20 seats compared to 2024.
In fact, one scenario Democrats are hoping for is capturing upwards of 250 House seats.
Still, Republicans have dutifully redistricted many states, meaning the full size of a Democratic majority could be limited regardless of whether Democrats win the national popular vote (and they are projected to).
Highly Competitive Senate Races Favoring Democrats
But Republicans usually accept the claim that Democrats will win the House.
What the GOP doesn’t agree with–what they cannot fathom–is that they lose the Senate, too.
Olsen has identified six Republican-held seats where Democrats are leading in the polls.
While Olsen projects that Democrat Adam Hamilton will narrowly lose in Kansas, the race might be too close to call.
Other Senate races are competitive, too. In Alaska, Maine, Nebraska, South Carolina, Texas, and Ohio–states that Trump previously won–the races are neck-and-neck between the GOP and the Democratic candidates.
Olsen believes the Michigan and Alaska races are particularly uncertain because late-campaign controversies erupted in those contested races.
Olsen believes that the Democrats will win those states narrowly, though.
Republicans tend to fixate on polling errors that could affect the final result.
Republican pollsters routinely highlight how white voters without college degrees are vastly undercounted in these polls.
Although the fact that Trump’s approval rating is trending so low and that there is a clear enthusiasm gap this election cycle seems to negate the usual protestations from Republican pollsters.
Trump’s Voters Will Remain
Many on the Left are assuming that the defeat of the GOP in the Midterms this year will end the Trump movement.
It will certainly damage it.
Indeed, if the Democrats win by the large margins some expect, it may hobble the remainder of the Trump administration and turn the forty-seventh president into a lame duck prematurely.
Yet, there are still some scenarios in which the Democrats win but by smaller margins–notably in the Senate.
Under those conditions, they can damage the president, but they don’t necessarily destroy him.
Remember, multiple presidents have lost their majorities in Congress in contentious Midterms and have still managed to govern.
Trump might be a different animal altogether.
Nevertheless, there is a chance that even if the Democrats win, it won’t be by as much as they think, and that would insulate Trump to some degree.
What’s more, the MAGA movement, while fragmented, remains strongly in favor of Trump and galvanized to support his continuation as president over the next two years.
Even after Trump leaves office in 2029, that movement will remain loyal to the forty-seventh president and continue being a force in Republican politics.
So, unless the Democrats truly beat all expectations, they are still going to contend with Trump and his voters going forward.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is the Senior National Security Editor at 19FortyFive.com. He also manages The Weichert Brief on Substack. Weichert is the co-host for The Mario Nawfal Show on Twitter/X. He is the author of four bestselling national security books, most recently A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine (Encounter Books). His next book, Fortress Americas: A New Monroe Doctrine (Tucker Carlson Books), is due out December 8. Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
