Key Points and Summary – Canada’s planned purchase of 88 F-35 stealth fighters is in jeopardy following a damning report from Auditor General Karen Hogan that revealed the program’s cost has ballooned by nearly 50% to C$27.7 billion.
-The report also highlighted significant delays in preparing air base infrastructure, which won’t be ready until years after the jets are delivered.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II assigned to the F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team performs a tactical pitch maneuver during a rehearsal flight over Hill Air Force Base, Utah, Jan. 11, 2023. The F-35 Demo Team performs rehearsal flights regularly to maintain flying certifications and to uphold and maintain their mission and Air Force recruiting standards. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Kaitlyn Ergish)
-This “bombshell” report, combined with ongoing trade disputes and inflammatory rhetoric from US President Donald Trump, has soured relations.
-Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has placed the deal under review, and Ottawa may now consider alternatives like the Swedish Gripen, imperiling US “fighter plane diplomacy.”
Canada and the F-35: Stealth Fighter Showdown?
The United States loves fighter plane diplomacy. This action means using combat airplane sales to garner respect and admiration from allies. It is a combination of “hard power” and “soft power,” giving the Americans an ability to perform armed diplomacy that strengthens allied militaries in a dangerous world.
The US national security strategy often holds high hopes that Canada could be a valuable asset in the event of an attack on NATO. The once stalwart American ally could be depended on to use its military in a mutual defense action due to an attack on the alliance from Russia or other contingency. Canada is considered a target for fighter plane diplomacy as a result.
No F-35s for Canada?
Canada needs a new fighter jet, and the United States wants it to be the F-35. Now that the paragon of fighter plane diplomacy is in danger. The F-35 deal that Canada partially agreed to has headwinds that may make it impossible to consummate.
New Costs Add At Least Another $28 Billion
The entire F-35 procurement will cost Canada significantly more than originally estimated. Replacing the older CF-18 fighter jets with the Lightning II is going to run the Canadians an additional $27.7 billion. That’s a 50 percent increase from a 2022 estimate.
Then Canada must pay another installment of $5.5 billion to get these stealth fighters in the air on a regular basis.
Capt. Andrew “Dojo” Olson, F-35 Demonstration Team commander and pilot performs a dedication pass in an F-35A Lightning II during the 2019 Wings Over Wayne Airshow April 27, 2019, at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, North Carolina. The WOW Airshow marks the third public performance of the F-35 Demo Team’s new aerial demonstration during 2019 airshow season.
Audit Report Brings Bad News
The new expense report was provided by Auditor General Karen Hogan, who sent the cost estimate to the House of Commons last month. Canada is supposed to buy 88 F-35s by 2032 for $19 billion. This is the biggest deal for the Royal Canadian Air Force in 30 years.
Hogan believes that the original price tag was determined in 2019 and that the monetary requirements have changed since then. Inflation has kicked in, and the Canadians do not want to pay a higher premium.
“We found that the department was not using the annual 2022 estimates produced by the Joint Strike Fighter Program Office that were more up to date than 2019, which were showing that costs of the aircraft had already increased substantially,” Hogan’s report said.
That’s Not All—More Funding Will Be Needed
Moreover, the F-35 has extra costs. Pilots must be trained. New airbase facilities and runways need to be built. There are maintenance personnel and repair systems to be managed. Plus, the F-35 requires complicated and expensive weapons. This infrastructure creates an additional need for $5.5 billion to reach the initial operating capacity for Canadians.
The auditor recommended that the government conduct a new cost estimate annually to incorporate these additional requirements into the defense budget. Hogan is alarmed about another problem. Two air base facilities that could house the F-35 are in disrepair. Fixing hangars on these installations will cost even more. The delays will also be problematic. Construction at the bases may not be done until 2032, but the bulk of the new F-35s are set to be delivered four years earlier in 2028.
The Americans Are Annoying Canada
This all complicates the deal. Canada has already paid for the first batch of F-35s, but relations between Ottawa and Washington are stymied by failed negotiations for a trade deal that is currently on pause.
The Canadians are incensed by US tariffs and the rhetoric from the White House, particularly when President Trump refers to Canada as the “51st state.” Lawmakers in the Great White North cringe, which makes the F-35 deal uncertain.
An F-35 taxis from the runway onto the flightline after successfully completing a sortie, Dec. 14, 2015, at Luke Air Force Base. The F-35 Lightning II is the most advanced fighter aircraft ever fielded, and is being adopted internationally by the United States and eight partner nations including Norway, Italy, and Australia. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Ridge Shan)
Prime Minister Mark Carney is being cagey about the F-35 agreement. The good news is that the Canadian leader has agreed to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense this fiscal year and 5% of GDP later, but there is a problem. He wants most military spending to be invested in homegrown programs rather than imports from the United States.
Carney also has placed the F-35 deal in “review” status. One proviso was getting to the matter of real costs. The auditor’s report was thus a bomb shell and will undoubtedly affect Carney’s thinking.
The Prime Minister could negotiate with another country for his new fighter jet fleet. One option would be to look to Europe for a source. Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen has been mentioned to take the place of the F-35. The Gripen is not fully stealthy, but it is seen as a capable fourth-generation++ fighter with air policing abilities that Canada needs to replace the CF-18.
Canada may accept the 16 F-35s that it has already paid for, but this creates more issues. Let’s say the Air Force purchases another batch of JAS 39 Gripens to bolster the fleet; then the Canadians would face more costs and interoperability issues.
Pilots would need to be trained on two new fighters, and the installations would require even more customization to accommodate the F-35 and the Gripen. That would require more money.
Thus, Carney is in a conundrum. Spend the extra funds on the F-35 and absorb the costs, or choose a new airplane. The aging CF-18 will have to do until then. The Americans are also not helping the cause. Trump is being his usual belligerent and vengeful self.
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This has created a detrimental amount of anti-Americanism in Canada. Many lawmakers in Ottawa would likely like to take a stand against the United States and see Carney cancel the F-35 deal. It will cost more, and it may be time to consider purchasing new fighters from another country.
That means fighter plane diplomacy between the Americans and Canadians could be dead.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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waco
July 1, 2025 at 5:10 pm
Carney is unlikely to solve this f-35 big dilemma, and so, sooner or later, he’s gonna get booted out.
Thus, solving the canadian f-35 purchase issue will need the hard work of Canada’s next prime minister. Together with the 48th president of US.
Carney doesn’t have the cojones to acknowledge or admit that his country is being squeezed by Lockheed Martin.
That stiff challenge from the US defense firm will have to be dealt with by the next canadian PM. Not mark Carney.
Carney is just unlucky. He’s entered office after trump the tariff man and the president who enjoys using an extra large big-sized megaphone won election in washington.
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Morgan P Yarbrough
July 2, 2025 at 8:15 am
If Canada is going to turn away because DTJ won’t subsidize them for another $300b a year, then so be it. They should be free to return once they decide to become an ally and contributor again.
Tim
July 2, 2025 at 8:57 am
Please, don’t buy it. I look forward to Canada (an erstwhile ally) buying a nearly outdated Swedish jet just because Trump has forced them to drop their remarkably un-ally-like 400% tariffs.
Good luck!!
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SSQ-II
July 2, 2025 at 6:31 pm
The same capability of 88 F-35 would require about 200 Gripens, big risk considering all of Sweden is within minutes of Russia and key technologies like the F414 engine in the Gripen are American so it does not change the content issue.
Most of the cost increase is infrastructure that was not recapitalized for decades because a new fighter was overdue and there was no money allocated from Ottawa regardless, with more Gripens, more pilots, and more air bases, shorter range more tankers required, and on and on. About as retarded as the CF-5 fiasco back in the 1970’s.
If the RCAF can not defend Canadian air space with little (1/2 a F-18) Gripens, its likely in a time of high tensions that a sitting president could annex Canada to protect the American homeland, the only real threat of 51st state status. Like income tax, it will be permanent.
The decision makers in (my) Canada are fatally delusional and selectively ignorant of basic reality. The F-35 has lots of issues but it at least can do the job.
As I have stated elsewhere, the only option is a smaller F35 purchase and billions spent developing single and twin engine PW600 Canada series drones to supplement them, but the defence establishment would have huge difficulties managing such a program even if a sizeable but imperfect force could be pieced together.
Doyle
July 2, 2025 at 10:10 pm
What we are seeing here is nothing new, it’s the Canadian version of bait and switch. They could pretty much care less about their defense, prove me wrong with actions not cheap words, so they play this game over and over. They rationalize themselves in and out of deals but accomplish nothing. They’d complain if we gave them the damn things and put them in mothballs. Hey in Biafra Cessna’s with AAMs worked against MIGs, give it a try oh Canada.
Quartermaster
July 3, 2025 at 11:03 am
“Trump is being his usual belligerent and vengeful self.”
You left out “stupid.”
Jonas E
July 3, 2025 at 12:17 pm
The Gripen is not outdated. It is one of the easiest to fly, with runway and landing requirements offered in the thousands on Canadian roads – total refill, re-arming and even engine replacement doable on any short straight piece of road. Way cheaper too. Why not keep the paid-for F-35s, and those pilots can take the Gripen out for a spin every now and then as a weekend training session. It is a highly capable aircraft, don’t fall for the American stupid “only we know how to build weapon systems…). Armed with Taurus and Meteor, bring on the russians…
Bradford
July 3, 2025 at 2:40 pm
Buy fighter planes…but from someone else.
We do not need American planes, and don’t need to be subsidizing the US Defense industry. Buy from a more reliable ally than US has shown itself to be.
And for all the dumb hicks who go on about Canada being subsidized to the tune of 300billion, or those who falsely think that Canada has 400% tariffs against all American goods…you might as well just post that you have no clue what is going on. Neither of those two conspiracy theories are true.
I am no fan of Mark Carney or the Liberals, and previously believed that Canada could do no better than to cooperate closely with the US on defense and free trade…Americans have shown themselves to be no friends of Canada. We will make new friends and allies, and remove America’s leverage on the Canadian economy. Trump can threaten to damage our economy now because we allowed too much integration with the US economy, giving the US free access to our resources. We will end this leverage. You can line up like everyone else now…
Keep your planes. We would rather have our pride than be servants to a rapidly isolating and declining America. You will eventually figure it out as the world moves on without you.
Jacksonian Libertarian
July 3, 2025 at 5:17 pm
Who needs enemies when they have friends like Canada?
Canada steals $60B/yr from the US with a trade surplus in addition to not funding their NATO-required 2% of GDP in defense spending.
So, of course, buying weapons from the US, which would aid in interservice logistics and reduce their theft, is viewed unfavorably by Canada.
Maurice E. Pinzón
July 3, 2025 at 5:38 pm
It will be one of the Great Ironies of all time that Israel will have F-35s and Canada will not. Israel will be at relative Peace with Islamic Nations and the USA, while an Islamicized Canada will be at relative war with both Israel and the USA.
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