Key Points and Summary – With days left before Ottawa releases its fighter review, PM Mark Carney could keep the first 16 F-35 fighters and replace the remaining 72 with Saab Gripens built in Canada.
-The move follows trade tensions with Washington and frustration over F-35 delays, but it would impose steep penalties: dual training pipelines, separate simulators, split sustainment and parts inventories, and bespoke integration into NORAD’s data-centric architecture.
An F-35A Lightning II fighter jet, a single seat, single engine, all-weather stealth multirole fighter aircraft, assigned to the 466 fighter squadron prepares to taxi across the flightline at Hill Air Force Base, Utah, Oct. 5, 2024.
-Interoperability with U.S. forces would suffer just as Arctic defense tightens, and diplomatic fallout could be severe.
-Saab’s industrial offer is enticing, yet the operational and lifecycle costs of a mixed fleet may swamp any near-term political gains.
Carney’s Possible Plan for Mixed F-35 Gripen Fleet Could Cost Him Big
Would Canada really dump the F-35 for a mixed fleet?
We will know in the coming days, and the fallout could be intense.
What We Know
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s possible call to diversify his Air Force’s fighter fleet could soon become a reality, with only days left until the findings of a review are due to be published.
At stake is whether Carney will follow through on his country’s existing $19 billion CAD commitment to acquire 88 Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighters, or reopen the deal, pay for the first 16 that have already been delivered, and pursue a mixed fleet.
If the findings of the review, which was commissioned in March 2025, support a potential Carney plan to diversify, it could mean that 72 American F-35s are replaced with Swedish Gripen jets manufactured by Saab.
Carney’s decision to order the review came as trade tensions between his government and the White House began to worsen, and as the F-35 program suffered delays and reviews.
Before Carney, government and Air Force officials weighed several options, including Boeing’s Super Hornet, the Eurofighter Typhoon, and the Gripen, before concluding in 2023 that only the F-35 offered the combination of survivability, interoperability, and long-term viability demanded by both NATO and NORAD.
Its stealth design, advanced sensors, and ability to fuse and share data with pilots and operators in real time made it the standout choice – but disagreements with the U.S. president could soon derail the plan.
By early 2025, Canada had already signed contracts and paid for the first 16 jets, with the first deliveries expected in 2026.
Immediately upon taking office as prime minister, however, Carney signaled his intention to possibly change direction.
Describing the F-35 deal as a signal that Canada was overly dependent on the United States, he ordered the review and argued that Ottawa must “diversify” its security relationships.
The problem?
Other advanced hardware may have some advantages, but they’ll join a small fleet of American F-35s – and increase the amount of time, money, and resources that will be spent on maintaining the aircraft and training pilots.
JAS 39 Gripen Deal? F-35 Divorce?
Saab’s Gripen, with its lower cost and a promise from Saab to construct the aircraft in Canada, appears to be the most likely option for Canada if the review supports Carney’s preference – but so far, it isn’t making very much sense.
For one, the decision risks undercutting Canada’s NORAD commitments. The agreement, initially signed in 1957 and renewed in 2006, established a bi-national command that is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
The agreement sees Canada and the United States share information about their aerospace activity, and makes interoperability between their two air forces a crucial part of the deal. Operating a mixed fleet of modern fighter jets, with the vast majority being from Sweden, could jeopardize seamless operations between the two forces.
It could even spark a diplomatic crisis with Washington at a time when Ottawa can ill afford it.
But beyond the political and diplomatic cost, the economics of a mixed fleet are punishing. Running both Gripens and F-35s would mean parallel pilot training, separate simulators, two unique parts inventories, and doubly complex maintenance operations.
Although major servicing for the F-35 will be handled in the United States, Canadian forces will still require expanded personnel to operate, repair, and sustain the two distinct platforms.
The big question that will be answered in the next couple of days: will Carney put his reputation, position, and Air Force on the line to spite President Donald Trump?
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York who writes frequently for National Security Journal. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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John
September 21, 2025 at 12:19 pm
Sell the 16 F-35s already paid for to another nation, and forget having a mixed force. The US is no longer a reliable ally.
Phantom Piper
September 21, 2025 at 9:08 pm
Well said. Get off the F-35 / F-47 rollercoaster and move to the Typhoon / Tempest.
chris
September 21, 2025 at 1:44 pm
These views reflect the American Perspective. One issue is the fact the F35 has a failing grade on cost vs operation even now in this publication much needed upgrades to the f35 is five years away if they started today. Cost over runs for the program are staggering and Lockheed can’t even guarantee cost stability. Second Canada will be paying twice for these aircraft the aluminum in that aircraft is sourced from Canada. Trump has a tariff of 50% on Canadian Aluminum so the fact if the US looses this deal the amount of money lost becomes staggering not just for Lockheed but the US Government on the double dip. The next Thing nobody is opening talking about is the presuure on the Canadian Government to develop our own fight again after the open threats of making Canada the 51st state. The Canadian Government and Public has started a divorce from the American economy the pitch to expand the funding of the armed forces to 5% GDP was meant to boost the weapon manufacturing for the US what nobody south of Boarder anticipated was the Canadians would go shop else where for their needs and so would the rest of NATO
Swamplaw Yankee
September 22, 2025 at 3:31 am
The MAGA POTUS Trump Cabal installed 3T as the leader for the next 5, that is FIVE years of Canada. MAGA POTUS Trumpkins opened his mind thru his mouth and showed the other world leaders that he had quickly self-abdicated the leadership of the WEST.
Trump is in power for 4 years, maybe only as little as 1.25 years. 3T is in legal power for a very, very full 5 years. 3T = Third Trudeau
So, 3T can cozy up to whatever he wants and totally ignore the MAGA conflict-of-interest crazy Weirdo Whackoff Nvidia chip selling clown show.
The federal election debates showed that zero, zip parties wanted to go for 5% of GNP for defence spending, let alone 2% of GNP. Free housing, free healthcare, free MAID, Free Dental care were the urban issues that city dwellers of Toronto Golden Horseshoe imposed on Canada.
Clearly the F-35 shills missed the chance to run for federal office. Some shills may even have had a good idea. But, shills selling the F-35 vacuum cleaner brand in Canada will not happen.
The IRS in Canada is hunting down low income senior citizens for their last few pennies. CRA “officers”, hardly able to speak english, are legally hunting down senior citizens whose pensions can not keep up with inflation, to close their files. Every penny out of a senior low income citizen in Canada is needed to FREE house the invaders from the rest of the world.
Shills for the F-35 need to drive down to Mexico and hand out F-35 colour brochures in the Mexico City NO-GO zone to their amigo targets.
Once the Shills have sold the wealthy, huge population base Mexico, they can go after Central America. The people there can sleep outside in poverty all year round. In Canada, low income seniors can freeeze to death on their pensions.
The inner beltway Washington DC readers only have a few weeks of below freezing temperatures. The inner beltway brains need to recognize that 3T can blather back to MAGA POTUS Trumpkins verbal threats as 3T is elected legally for 5 years. 3T is sitting in legal power in Ottawa in command of Canada when the MAGA POTUS Cabal is up for re-election in 1.25 and 3.25 years. 3T does not need any more cash draining F-35 air frames. -30-
Stephen
September 30, 2025 at 2:24 am
WTF are you talking about !!! Can you speak English please ?
A Richelieu
September 22, 2025 at 12:52 pm
Replacing a jet which is expected to cost $750M over the lifetime with a jet which is expected to cost $250M over the lifetime is going to free up $500M per aircraft which can finance the extra simulators.
The F-35 that has been used does not meet the original spec. The Block 4 version is supposed to fix that. It is late…
The latest GAO report state that the Block 4 that Canada is getting does not work and is not approved for combat. Combat approval has been ”one year away” since 2022, and as late as April 2025, it was still one year away. After the September report, it is now two years away. The full Block 4 will be ready at the earliest in 2031 according to the report. The functionality of the Block 4 is also slashed. It was supposed to have 53 new functionalities, which was later increased to 66. Now this has been reduced to 33.
The others will have to come in a later Block. Many things depend on better cooling and a new engine core that will be available in 2033 at the earliest.
It certainly looks like the F-35 will meet spec around 2040.
Per Vangli
September 22, 2025 at 6:01 pm
Sweden and Denmark tested F35 together with Gripen in a “theatre play” over the Kattegat sea basin. Search Google with “F35 Gripen Kattegat” and confirm the (postive) results.
Kevin
September 24, 2025 at 12:02 pm
The F35 is overbudget, overdue and had a catastopic crash in Alaska during testing. The US has threatened Canadian sovereignty, claims it has a kill switch, and once again threatened us if we didn’t go through with the deal. Sell the ones we are committed to and invest in a Gripen fleet that will privide Canadian jobs and manufacturing using our own materials. Why would we “rent” our air assets from an untrustworthy former ally and stated enemy?
Swamplaw Yankee
October 13, 2025 at 12:10 am
At some nearly immediate point, POTUS Trump has to budge on the Mexico issue. Mexico just can not sit and be protected for FREE.
Missile/drone attacks of the future can easily come from the south, over Mexico. So, what will Trump say?
NORAD is a old concept from before the invention of cruise technology like the tomahawk.
Mexico needs to allocate big tax dollars to defending their vast air space. Needs to legally sign their contracts. What is the MEXICAN message?
The message from Canadians, seems clear. -30-