A Regional War Has Broken Out in the Middle East

In the wake of Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel, we sit at a crossroads for the future of what has become a regional war in the Middle East. How did we get here?  Like many conflicts, this war has emerged from the peculiar interests of a number of the players, and the resulting conflagration has worked to the benefit of approximately no one. At the moment all of the players are worse off than they were when the war began, and in fact much of the rest of the conflict is likely to be characterized by an effort to get back to the status quo.

Where are we now, and what will these competitors do to dig themselves out of their collective funk?

Hamas

Questions remain about Hamas’ intent in launching its major assault on 10/7. Some have argued that the attack was intended as a raid and succeeded far beyond the expectations of its planners, to the extent that it triggered Israel’s withering retaliation.

Others have suggested that Hamas launched the assault in order to re-establish its relevance, and especially to derail a potential peace negotiation between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Whatever the intent, the attack was enormously destructive and triggered a massive, ongoing Israeli response that has utterly devastated Gaza, brought more West Bank territory under Israeli control, and killed tens of thousands of people.

Hezbollah

Hezbollah struggled to minimize its contribution to the conflict while at the same time doing just enough to reassure regional partners of its commitment to defying Israel. Hezbollah’s approach failed; its bombardment of northern Israel depopulated several settlements but did not relieve pressure on Hamas. Eventually, Israel took advantage of gaps in Hezbollah’s communications procedures to launch a multi-wave decapitating assault that killed much of the senior leadership and rendered the rest of the organization a mess.

Facing an Israeli invasion, Hezbollah looks to be at low ebb with respect to its influence on regional events.

Ansar Allah (The Houthis)

The Houthis intervened in the Gaza Conflict not long after the events of 10/7 with a campaign of bombing and interdiction against shipping in the Red Sea.  Although the attacks have done little damage, they did scare many major shippers away from the Suez Canal, creating supply chain difficulties and maritime shipping rate hikes. The Houthis have also launched some attacks directly on Israel.

The overall campaign has triggered military responses from the US and Israel, although the impact of this response seems to have been limited. Nevertheless, beyond re-establishing its cred as an anti-Israel, anti-imperialist organization, Ansar Allah has accomplished little of real value. Global shipping routes have shifted away from the Red Sea (causing damage to countries other than Israel more than to Israel itself) and attacks have yet to inflict significant damage on military targets.

Iran

Iran deserves as much credit as anyone for creating the situation that made 10/7 possible. Iran has carefully nursed militias and non-state terrorist groups across the region, and has long acted as a patron for both Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran became directly involved in the conflict after Israeli attacks against Iranian facilities and personnel in Syria made continued inaction humiliating on the regional stage. Iran launched a massive drone and ballistic missile attack on Israel to little noticeable effect. Israel demonstrated that it was not deterred by this attack when it blew up a Hamas negotiator in Tehran and continued to launch attacks against Iranian assets in Syria.

Iran’s missile capabilities. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Last week, Iran finally launched a second barrage of missiles against Israel, which again had minimal military effect. Notwithstanding Iran’s apparent inability to actually hurt Israel, this attack may well trigger an Israeli retaliation that will broaden the conflict.

Israel

On October 7, 2023, Israel suffered one of the most devastating attacks in its history. Some 1300 Israelis were killed and several hundred more were taken hostage by Hamas fighters. Israel responded to this attack not by acceding to a hostage exchange, but rather through an extremely destructive campaign against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. This campaign has resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians and has triggered accusations of genocide. Israel’s political system is on the verge of collapse, with a deeply unpopular Bibi Netanyahu barely holding onto power (in part to avoid the legal jeopardy created by corruption allegations). Israel’s campaign has badly damaged Hamas, but it has strained (not broken) its relationship with the United States, Western Europe, and its trading partners in Latin America and East Asia.

Permanent peace with Saudi Arabia now also seems off the table. While inflicting substantial damage on Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian assets in Syria is likely to buy Israel security for a time, the entire campaign has pushed a peaceful settlement of Israel’s position in the Middle East into an ever more distant future.

U.S. Air Force Airman 1st Class Brendan Price, 908th Expeditionary Air Refueling in-flight refueling specialist, delivers fuel to an Israeli Air Force F-16 during exercise Juniper Oak 23.3 above the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, July 11, 2023. The U.S. is committed to its partnership with Israel while developing and maintaining interoperability with its partners, and ensuring regional security by providing essential training to deter adversaries from taking aggressive actions or malign activities against the U.S., coalition and partners. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Jacob Cabanero)

What Happens Now?

Nobody is winning this conflict. Israel has suffered a devastating loss in life and its sense of security, along with what grace the rest of the world was willing to accord. Iran has seen its regional reputation crumble as it appears to be able to do little to defeat, deter, or even annoy Israel. Hezbollah has watched as Israel systematically destroyed its leadership, its communications, and is now encroaching upon its territory. Syria has suffered from multiple Israeli airstrikes. Hamas survives but has lost all capacity to do anything of any consequence other than hide. A better peace, the only useful goal of war, has not been achieved. There has perhaps never been a clearer example of the dictum that war hurts everyone. Unfortunately, there’s not much reason to believe that peace is at hand as we approach the first anniversary of the October 7 attacks.

About the Author: Dr. Robert Farley

Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.