Key Points – A direct US military intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict, such as using B-2 bombers to strike Iran’s hardened Fordow nuclear facility, would likely provoke a multi-faceted and dangerous Iranian response.
-Tehran has already warned of “all-out war.”
-Potential retaliation includes launching its large arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones against the thousands of US troops stationed at bases across the Middle East.
-Furthermore, Iran could attempt to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, crippling global oil markets, reactivate Houthi attacks on shipping, and unleash sophisticated cyber-attacks against critical US infrastructure, such as power grids and water treatment plants.
How Would Iran Respond to a US Military Intervention?
You’ve noticed the debate that the White House, Congress, and the American public are engaged in. Should the United States intervene in the Iran-Israel conflict or stay out? Voters are convinced that Iran should never have a nuclear weapon. More than 80 percent of those surveyed in the United States are certain that Iran should be prevented from getting the bomb.
These domestic political pressures concerning the Iran-Israeli war have been documented well by the media. What is less examined is how the Iranians would respond to a US intervention. The Americans will be offering the Israelis the use of “bunker-busting bombs” (massive ordnance penetrators) to reach the deeply underground Fordow fuel enrichment plant and other types of Iranian nuclear infrastructure. The US intelligence community is likely providing satellite data for better targeting and bomb damage assessment.
Here We Go Again – Another Middle East War
No American boots on the ground in Iran are likely to be part of the plan. Trump has always maintained that he wants no new Forever Wars that endanger US military personnel, especially in the Middle East. Still, Israel is pressuring him to lend a hand in the conflict.
An Iranian spokesman from the foreign ministry has told the media that there will be an “all-out war” if the United States were to execute some type of kinetic attack. Iran fears that the US Air Force could command B-2 bombers in Diego Garcia to carry out a bombing run to help Israel. The Americans are also sending the USS Nimitz to the region, which would give a full complement of ground strike airplanes like the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet to menace Iran.
Trump Wants More Than a Ceasefire
Trump is sensing momentum for achieving greater strategic objectives after ample Israeli success when attacking military and nuclear targets in Iran over the last six days. The president is looking for an opportunity to bring Tehran to its knees and even execute regime change efforts against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The ayatollah has guaranteed he would never surrender. Trump has raised the stakes.
“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social network.
Iranian Ballistic Missile and Drone Strikes Are the Biggest Threat
However, words are cheap.
Iran is likely to punish the Americans should they get involved. The Iranian ballistic missile program is extensive despite the Israeli bombing that has attempted to degrade it. The Iranians have already directly hit an Israeli hospital despite Tel Aviv’s extensive missile defense shield.
Thousands of American military personnel are in range of Iranian projectiles that could easily rain down death and destruction on US defense forces. Iran also has a massive drone program that could drain US resources when the Americans attempt to engage in counter-drone warfare.
Negatively Affecting the Global Oil Market
Iran could also block or close the Strait of Hormuz, which would punish American and European trade transiting to Asia. Oil prices would go through the roof, and the US economy would be damaged. Iran could also attack Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure, which could crimp oil supplies and spark a larger war in the Middle East that would increase the likelihood of American military action.
Waking Up the Houthis and Cyber War
Iran may convince the Houthi terrorists in Yemen to break the cease-fire and continue firing missiles and drones at US shipping. That would open another front in the war and tie up US naval assets.
The Iranians could also order cyber-attacks on US civilian targets in the homeland. Iran has a significant cyber warfare capability, and they would likely go after American electrical power generation, water treatment, and sewage plants to incapacitate the United States. Google has warned that Iranian cyber warriors are utilizing large language models and publicly available chatbots to generate malicious code and identify vulnerabilities.
“My bold prediction: Iran’s history of cyberattacks signals it could pivot to the US amid tensions. In August 2024, Iran’s hackers spear-phished a US presidential campaign official, aiming to influence elections, per FBI reports. I boldly predict Iran could escalate by targeting US critical infrastructure—energy or finance—using AI-driven phishing to exploit digital footprints,” according to Theresa Payton, former White House Chief Information Officer and CEO of the cybersecurity firm Fortalice Solutions.
Thus, Iran has many cards it can play. First, it could send a massive ballistic missile and drone attack at US military installations in the region. Then, it could close the Strait of Hormuz and attack Saudi Arabia’s energy facilities – actions that would spike the price of oil and hurt US consumers. Tehran would likely convince the Houthis to attack American warships. Devastating cyberattacks could also harm American interests.
Due to all of these threats, the Trump national security team should resist intervening. I recommend that the United States only supply Iran with bunker-buster bombs and refrain from using its airplanes to drop ordnance on Iran directly. There are numerous ways in which Iran could retaliate against the United States and its allies. Missile, rocket, and drone attacks on US military personnel would hurt the most, followed by cyber attacks on the homeland.
Let the Israeli attacks take their course and see how well Tel Aviv can prosecute the war on its terms. US intervention is too risky and could enable the Iranians to start a larger conflict in the Middle East that could suck in Saudi Arabia and its allies.
An American intervention in Iran is just not worth it due to the risks of retaliation in all domains of warfare.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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