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Military Hardware: Tanks, Bombers, Submarines and More

Can China Deploy 6 Aircraft Carriers By 2035?

NRL is currently working with Naval Sea Systems Command, Naval Systems Engineering Directorate, Ship Integrity & Performance Engineering (SEA 05P) to transition the new pigment combination into a military specification. The most recent vessel to receive it was USS George Washington (CVN 73).
NRL is currently working with Naval Sea Systems Command, Naval Systems Engineering Directorate, Ship Integrity & Performance Engineering (SEA 05P) to transition the new pigment combination into a military specification. The most recent vessel to receive it was USS George Washington (CVN 73).

It seems like every time you look, China is leaping forward with its military capabilities. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) now has three aircraft carriers, and they are often in the sea at once, harassing Taiwan and putting critical American military assets on Japan in danger.

But how many aircraft carriers does China want?

Probably six by 2035, which would give China over 50 percent of the flat-top numbers that the United States has.

Regional and Global Powerhouse

China wants a world-class military – one that can dominate its neighborhood and overseas regional rivals like Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

Chinese Premier Xi Jinping aims to modernize his country’s defense forces by 2027, the year that many intelligence analysts believe the Middle Kingdom will invade and annex Taiwan. Eventually, China could use its military to dominate outside the Indo-Pacific making it a true global power.

Growing the Fleet

This means more aircraft carriers to traverse the high seas. This would be a great shot in the arm for propaganda efforts. Xi could point to the carrier fleet as an example of national might and prestige. China could respond to contingencies worldwide and create a show of force whenever needed with six carriers. The next three will be nuclear-powered for near-unlimited range. Carrier aviation will be improved with stealth airplanes and the best pilots. The carriers can deploy command and control aircraft to lead maritime battles better. Combat search and rescue will be improved to give aviators extreme confidence that they if they are shot down they will survive.

Bigger and Better Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups

China will also build more combat escort ships to populate its carrier strike groups, which means more destroyers, frigates, and submarines. The country is drastically improving its undersea warfare capabilities with better swift and silent boats. Sonar and detection sensors are more advanced, so enemy submarines will have a more difficult time attacking Chinese carriers.

Other protective screens around carrier battle groups include anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles to create an impenetrable umbrella around the valuable carriers.

Carriers Have Advantages Beyond Combat

Carriers can also protect sea lines of communication, improving trade and commerce on open waters outside the region. Nuclear carriers could patrol the Middle East and protect critical oil shipments that flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Chinese carriers can also improve armed diplomacy efforts and deterrence. They can provide a show of force or conduct humanitarian missions that give China a way to shape foreign policy and international relations.

Joy In the Hearts of All Countrymen

To China, flat-tops are a point of national pride and even joy. When an ordinary Chinese citizen watches television news and sees video of an aircraft carrier, it shows that Xi Jinping has created a sense of great accomplishment and unity. The Chinese may have domestic problems, but leaders and citizens can point to the PLAN and see that the country is excelling in military affairs.

Political Leadership Gets It Right

In fact, one aspect of a modernized military is that Chinese citizens are convinced that their political leadership has progressed to the point that it can better focus on internal affairs like improving housing, creating jobs, and cleaning up the environment since the nation’s military is secure. This gives the public confidence that their government cares about the future of the country. So, carriers symbolize more than military advantages, they assure the public that China’s most difficult challenges can be resolved.

Rally Around the Flag

Thus, aircraft carriers for China represent more than just better military capabilities. They definitely improve the levels of tactics, operations, and strategy, but each new flat-top represents more to the general public. Any type of military operation with a carrier will have the Chinese public rally around the flag and support a potential war and that is exactly what Chinese military and civilian leadership want to happen. So, China should look to increase its carrier fleet in the near future.

Even the three they currently have are points of national pride and prestige. Not to mention a way to dominate the region and someday create a global, blue-water navy. No other piece of Chinese military has so many advantages. Carriers provide military power and even some types of civilian and domestic advantages. Six carriers would place China into another category of power, which could take just ten more years of supreme effort. This is doable for the Chinese; they cannot wait for the sixth flat-top to hit the water.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

Brent M. Eastwood
Written By

Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Zhduny

    October 16, 2024 at 4:23 pm

    By 2035, if my assumptions are correct, the chinese eastern seaboard would be one massive smoking ruin.

    How then to be able to deploy six carriers.

    The aim of the Pacific forces, also known today as INDOPACOM, is first of all to kick down chinese front door.

    Once that door has been smashed, every known unit, including air force, marine and army, will rush through and set everything alight.

    And the kabala policy will be implemented.

    Tokyo implemented kabala strategy after its army established itself firmly upon smashing its way out of Shanghai. In 1937.

  2. pagar

    October 16, 2024 at 11:53 pm

    Zhduny absolutely correct.

    In November 1937 Japan captured shanghai. The great triumph at shanghai was accompanied by stories carried by refugees telling of numerous unspeakable atrocities and beastly events.

    In December 1937, the triumphant Japs entered Nanking and the stories from shanghai proved to be totally true as there was a foreign zone in the city that actually had a few foreign individuals working with movie cameras.

    The stories (and the black and white films) traveled far and wide and by 1940 the Chinese revolutionary army gained a massive size.

    It caused them to attack the japs on a massive scale which greatly enraged the Japanese army.

    So, to teach them a lesson, the japs in 1941, introduced the dreaded Three-Alls policy.

    Also known as KaBaLa policy.

    So in future, expect new invaders or conquerors to reenact KaBaLa.

    KaBaLa, it rhymes with kumbaya. Kabala, kumbaya.

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