Key Points and Summary – Canada is reconsidering its 88-jet F-35 buy and eyeing Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen, but U.S. leverage could sink a Saab deal.
-The Gripen’s GE F414 engine gives Washington export veto power, and canceling F-35s could trigger blowback against Bombardier and other Canadian suppliers tied to U.S. programs.
JAS 39 Gripen Fighter from Back in 2017. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-Advocates tout Gripen’s cold-weather chops, lower operating costs, and promised Canadian workshare; critics counter it lacks stealth and seamless NORAD/NATO integration.
-With tariffs, trade tension, and a Carney–Trump meeting looming, Ottawa’s choice pits sovereignty optics against propulsion realities, supply-chain risk, and interoperability.
-Even Eurofighter and Rafale include U.S. content, limiting true independence today.
Could Canada Say No to Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen?
Canada is frustrated with the United States, and the United States is frustrated with Canada.
The problem? Canada could cancel its order for 88 F-35 Lightning II stealth jets and instead order Sweden’s JAS 39 Gripen. But there is a problem with that choice. The United States supplies the Gripen with its engines, so a potential deal with Saab could be spiked by the Americans, who could refuse to provide the GE power plant to the Swedes.
There are restrictions on the export of General Electric F414-GE-39E engines. Colombia found this out the hard way when it had plans to buy the Gripen instead of U.S.-manufactured F-16s. The Colombians are now moving to buy Gripen after all, and it is unclear how the United States will react.
“The ability of the Americans to block [a sale] would be highest with the Gripen because of the engine,” defense analyst Martin Shadwick told a Canadian media outlet, as noted by Eurasian Times. “Rafale would have the least American content,” he added.
Other Canadian aerospace firms have contracts with the United States that could be negatively affected should Ottawa cancel the entire F-35 order. Sixteen Lightning IIs have already been paid for.
Would the United States Punish Other Canadian Aerospace Corporations?
The CEO of Bombardier Inc. is concerned there could be “reciprocity” against his company should the Canadian government nix the F-35 deal, according to the Eurasian Times. Bombardier has deals in place with the U.S. Department of War. The company has sold the Global 6500 airplane to an American customer. About 60 percent of Bombardier’s defense activity comes from the United States.
U.S. Air Force Airmen load a munition onto an F-35 Lightning II in preparation to conduct a scenario during Checkered Flag 24-1 at Tyndall Air Force Base, Florida, Nov. 1, 2023. Checkered Flag is a large-force aerial exercise held at Tyndall Air Force Base which fosters readiness and interoperability through the incorporation of 4th and 5th-generation aircraft during air-to-air combat training. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Jake Carter)
Other companies in Canada manufacture components for the F-35, and losing the entire 88 F-35 order would reduce the number of advanced manufacturing jobs that pay well, thereby stimulating the nation’s economy.
Holding Up the Stop Sign to Saab and the JAS 39 Gripen
For these reasons, Canadians may choose not to purchase the JAS 39 Gripen. The Americans could hold back on the GE engines and place the entire deal in jeopardy, or reconsider deals with Bombardier and other Canadian defense contractors that supply the United States.
Canada Is Losing Patience with the United States
The Canadians, however, are peeved at the Americans. Trump cannot stop saying that he would like to make the Great White North the “51st state.” The United States has tariffs of 25 percent on goods that fall outside the USMCA trade agreement. There are also tariffs of 25 percent on steel and aluminum.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has the F-35 deal under review as his military considers alternatives, such as the JAS 39 Gripen.
The Gripen could fit into Canadian Air Force plans because it is a capable fourth-generation-plus fighter that would perform well in cold temperatures.
However, it is not stealthy like the F-35. Sweden’s Saab has tried to sweeten the deal by promising that some parts and components from the Gripen could be built in Canada.
That might be a way Carney’s government could mitigate the impact of potential job losses from U.S. aerospace contracts.
The American engine is the sticking point. The Gripen runs on the General Electric model, and Sweden depends on the U.S. corporation to supply that specific power plant. The Gripen requires other international parts, too.
Trump Must Work His Negotiation Magic
The United States may want to employ a charm offensive in relation to the Canadian F-35 deal.
For that to happen, Trump and Carney will likely have to meet one-on-one and negotiate directly. That meeting is scheduled for this week, and it will be interesting to see if the F-35 deal is on the agenda. Trump could remind Carney that Americans work closely with Canadians on other aerospace deals and that Canadian jobs are at stake.
Carney could still opt for the Gripen, but that may be risky due to the American-made engine and other defense deals with the Department of War.
A Big Boost to Lockheed Martin
Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin would love for the JAS 39 Gripen to be taken out of the running. That is one less competitor for the F-35 that Lockheed would not have to worry about.
The F-35 decision is becoming increasingly complex. Carney could be pressured by voters who are frustrated with the country’s treatment by the United States. But the Gripen may not be the answer either. The Canadians are also considering the Eurofighter Typhoon or the Dassault Rafale as alternatives to the F-35s. American firms also supply components for those two airplanes.
It seems Carney may decline the JAS 39 Gripen. It comes with too much economic and trade risk. The F-35 is a better fit for Canada, and the jobs and logistical train are already in place. Sweden has made considerable efforts with the Gripen, but it may be too great a hurdle to supply the Saab fighter to the Canadians.
Look for Trump to remind Carney that the United States is a massive supplier to all the aircraft being considered to replace the F-35. It will take some careful Trump “fighter plane diplomacy” for Lockheed to be the supplier of all 88 F-35s, and that would be good news in Fort Worth, Texas, where the F-35 is manufactured.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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