Canada Is Playing with Fire over F-35 Fighter Deal

Key Points and Summary – Canada’s Liberal government is once again wavering on its long-promised purchase of 88 F-35s, now claiming the deal doesn’t deliver enough industrial benefits.

-Industry Minister Mélanie Joly is openly courting Saab’s JAS-39 Gripen, which comes bundled with promises of 10,000 Canadian jobs and local assembly.

An F-35A Lightning II, flown by Maj. Kristin “Beo” Wolfe, F-35 A Lightning II Demonstration Team commander, performs aerial displays during the Joint Base Andrews 2022 Air & Space Expo, at JBA, Md., Sept. 18, 2022. Wolfe demonstrated several difficult maneuvers throughout her performance at the Air & Space Expo to provide an opportunity for people to see U.S. military air capabilities in action. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Ben Cash)

-But Ottawa is already contractually tied to 16 F-35s, with dozens of Canadian firms in the global supply chain.

-Military leaders warn that shifting the remaining 72 jets to a European type would create an expensive, inefficient mixed fleet and weaken NORAD and Arctic defense, trading real capability for short-term political theatre.

Canada’s Latest Excuse: “Not Enough Benefits For F-35 Buy”

Canada is looking for any excuse not to go through with the purchase of 88 F-35s from the United States.

The latest complaint is that the Liberal administration of Mark Carney believes that Canada has been “short-changed on industrial benefits” out of its contract with Lockheed Martin to purchase American-made F-35 stealth fighter jets, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly said Tuesday.

“We believe that we didn’t get enough when it comes to the F-35,” Joly said to the news media on Parliament Hill.

“The industrial benefits are not enough. There needs to be more jobs created out of the F-35 contract. That’s clear to me and clear to this government,” she added.

Saab is dangling 10,000 jobs in a last-minute full-court press for Ottawa to ditch the F-35 for the Saab JAS-39 Gripen fighter jet. Saab is offering to build the Canadian JAS 39 Gripen in Canada.

Ottawa has signed on and waffled on the F-35 since 2002. In 2023, Canada signed a deal with Lockheed Martin to buy F-35 stealth fighters to replace the Air Force’s aging CF-18 jets.

The agreement, which will see the first tranche of 16 fighters delivered between 2026 and 2030, was the result of an open competition in which Saab’s Gripen E placed second.

Joly acknowledged publicly that the Carney government was talking with Saab, which has promised to bring the 10,000 aerospace manufacturing jobs to the country in the assembly of its Gripen E fighter jet.

U.S. Air Force Maj. Kristin “BEO” Wolfe, F-35A Lightning II Demonstration Team commander, flies over Kennewick, Washington, during the Tri-Cities Water Follies Airshow Over the River, July 30, 2023. The F-35 Demonstration Team participated in the 2023 Tri-Cities Water Follies airshow and various other events in support of their mission to recruit, retain and inspire new and old generations of Airmen. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Kaitlyn Ergish)

“We think that we can use military procurement to get more,” Joly said to reporters. “That is why we’re looking, indeed, at the Gripen.”

But this latest stunt is all about politics and less about the aircraft.

Carney Wins Election On Promise “To Stand Up To Trump”

Shortly after being elected this past spring, Prime Minister Mark Carney ordered a review of the $27.7 billion purchase from Lockheed Martin for the F-35.

Carney, who won the April election on a promise to stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump, had requested the review by military officials in March because Canada was over-reliant on the U.S. defense industry. But in reality, the issue had more to do with Trump’s stance on tariffs and his calls for Canada to become the 51st state.

“We have alternatives to the F-35, so we will explore those, as the ministers of defense and procurement will explore how the F-35 program could be adjusted, including greater investment here in Canada, greater production here in Canada,” Carney said at a press conference.

“The prime minister has asked me to go and examine those things and have discussions with other sources, particularly where there may be opportunities to assemble those fighter jets in Canada,” Defense Minister Bill Blair said.

Ottawa has made a legal commitment to fund the first 16 F-35 aircraft. Although Carney made clear in March that Canada could seriously consider buying the remaining 72 planes from non-U.S. companies, the Defense Ministry review concluded that there was no military sense in splitting the order.

Saab, manufacturer of the superb JAS-39 Gripen fighter, has offered to build factories in Canada for spare parts and possibly an aircraft manufacturing plant to produce the Gripen, bringing jobs and industry to the country.

Joly And The Government Ignore The F-35 Jobs Already In Canada

Canada already has 35 companies that are making parts for the F-35. Joly neglected to mention that, nor how many people are employed in the making of F-35 parts. If Ottawa decides to renege on its agreement, Lockheed Martin could relocate the manufacturing of those parts elsewhere.

“(The figures) have potential to grow as Canada further defines sovereign sustainment requirements,” said Chauncey McIntosh, F-35 vice president and general manager at Lockheed.

“Economic benefits are commensurate with a country’s program of record, and they will shrink if Canada ultimately purchases fewer than 88 aircraft.”

An F-35 taxis from the runway onto the flightline after successfully completing a sortie, Dec. 14, 2015, at Luke Air Force Base. The F-35 Lightning II is the most advanced fighter aircraft ever fielded, and is being adopted internationally by the United States and eight partner nations including Norway, Italy, and Australia. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Ridge Shan)

Canada’s specific job count for the F-35 program is unclear, but an analysis estimated that over 150,000 jobs would be created over the program’s life, adding $16.9 billion to GDP.

The total economic impact of the F-35 program is also estimated at around $72 billion, including more than 214,000 advanced manufacturing jobs, according to www.f35.com.

According to the economic impact study, conducted by Offset Market Exchange (OMX), a Toronto-based firm that helps OEMs develop their Canadian supply chains and provides analytics to ensure compliance with ITB obligations, the full impact of the program between production (2007 and 2046) and sustainment (2026 and 2058) could result in $16.9 billion to Canada’s GDP.

Steve Callaghan, Lockheed Martin’s former vice-president of F-35 development, said in 2020 that the Canadian government was the first nation to sign on to the U.S. partnership and to date “more than 110 Canadian companies have contributed to the development and the production of the F-35,” he said, resulting in about US$2 billion in contracts.

Changing To A Mixed Fleet is Expensive

Due to the 16-aircraft commitment to the F-35, changing the remaining 72 aircraft to non-US manufacturers would be very expensive, requiring additional supplies, maintenance, and training facilities.

Lt.-Gen. Jamie Speiser-Blanchet, the new commander of the Royal Canadian Air Force, was put on the spot regarding her support for a mixed fleet of fighters.

She effectively dodged the questions by stating that the Air Force will be required to manage two fleets during the introduction of the F-35, as the current CF-18s are expected to continue flying until the early 2030s.

Speiser-Blanchet, however, stated that operating two separate fleets would be more costly and complicated. “It would duplicate a certain amount of infrastructure and training,” she said.

However, Carney had promised to release the findings of the F-35 review by the end of the calendar summer, which was supposed to be September 20. That review still hasn’t been released, and Carney has been, thus far, silent on the subject.

Lockheed Martin told Newsweek in a statement that it values its partnership with the Royal Canadian Air Force but that the U.S. and Canadian governments should best address questions about its procurement of F-35s.

F-35s Set to Replace Older Hornets

The new fleet of F-35As is set to replace the Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF) aging CF-18s. If the contract is kept, the first four of the 88 planes are expected to be delivered in 2026 and the final 18 in 2032.

Canada Air Force CF-18. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

In an interview with the CBC, Blair said he would examine whether all the jets need to be F-35s or whether there are other alternatives, “particularly where there may be opportunities” to assemble, support, and maintain the jets in Canada.

“The direction the prime minister has given me is go and look at all of our options to make sure that we make the right decision for Canada,” Blair said.

What Is The Solution? 

Canada is upset with President Trump, and this power play is all well and good. However, protecting their vast northern borders is a challenging proposition, especially when potential adversaries have designs on the Arctic. They need stealth fighters to defend their borders and engage adversary aircraft.

They chose the F-35 for a reason. And while the Gripen is a fantastic 4th-generation + fighter, the F-35 is a fifth-generation stealth fighter that is the most advanced aircraft in the world.

Thumbing your nose at Trump is one thing, but thumbing your nose at your national security is quite another. And because of NORAD, the security of the US is at stake too. But that is what the Canadian government is doing.

The F-35 is much more than a fighter; it’s an intelligence-gathering, stealth-enabled, data-fusing node designed to operate as part of a larger, digitally integrated force. That’s exactly what Canada needs for the Arctic, for NORAD, and for the kinds of coalition operations it claims to want to support.

Four F-35s can cover the same territory as several dozen fourth-generation fighters like the Gripen or Rafale.

Killing the F-35 contract then raises the question: what do they do with just 16 F-35s and then 72 European aircraft? Maintaining two distinct planes will be costly in terms of maintenance and spare parts.

Military officials have warned that maintaining two separate fighter fleets would be logistically and operationally inefficient, requiring two distinct training pipelines and supply chains.

A divided training regime would further strain the Canadian Armed Forces’ existing pilot shortage. However, Minister of Industry Mélanie Joly dismissed that view, arguing that “all G7 countries have mixed fleets” and that Canada should pursue a similar model.

“My objective is to obtain more industrial value from Lockheed Martin while continuing discussions with Saab,” Joly stated.

Splitting the air fleet is not a good idea, especially for a cash-strapped government like Canada’s. Each aircraft requires its own logistical supply chain. Aircraft inevitably suffer from wear and tear, even in benign conditions, and their components are not interchangeable between fleets.

Tom Lawson, former chief of the defence staff, told The Canadian Press that “nothing comes close” to the F-35 as a modern fighter aircraft.

He said any other choice would be “so inferior that to force the air force to get them and fly them for the future relegates them to decades of futility in any operations they might be asked to go on.”

About the Author: Steve Balestrieri

Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.

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