Key Points and Summary – Canada has paid for 16 F-35s but is reviewing the rest of its 88-jet order amid rising costs, pilot and base shortfalls, and Block 4 uncertainty.
-U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra warns of “serious consequences,” arguing a Saab Gripen pivot would erode NORAD interoperability.
An F-35A Lightning II, flown by Maj. Kristin “Beo” Wolfe, F-35 A Lightning II Demonstration Team commander, performs aerial displays during the Joint Base Andrews 2022 Air & Space Expo, at JBA, Md., Sept. 18, 2022. Wolfe demonstrated several difficult maneuvers throughout her performance at the Air & Space Expo to provide an opportunity for people to see U.S. military air capabilities in action. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Ben Cash)
-Saab is tempting Ottawa with local production and jobs, raising the prospect of a mixed F-35/Gripen fleet—along with added training, maintenance, and infrastructure complexity. Politically, tariffs and frictions with Washington loom, while militarily the F-35’s stealth and sensor fusion outclass the 4.5-gen Gripen.
-A decision expected soon will balance alliance demands against industrial and sovereignty goals.
Canada and the F-35: What Happens Now?
Canada’s purchase of 88 F-35 Lightning II aircraft is still under review, and the United States is getting testy. U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra warned the Canadians there would be “serious consequences” if Ottawa does not honor the full purchase. While Canada has already paid for and committed to 16 Lightning IIs, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has yet to decide on the rest.
Saab Is In the Running
The Canadians are considering whether to instead buy the Saab JAS 39 Gripen from Sweden. This is a quality fighter jet, but not nearly as stealthy as the F-35. Plus, the United States worries that Canada having a European airplane decreases interoperability among the platforms manning the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).
Let’s Not Change Horses Before the Battle
The idea behind the Joint Strike Fighter program was that U.S. allies would have an upgradable “flying computer” that many countries could fly seamlessly together. Each partner country – and there are 19 users of the F-35 – could operate the airplane as a lethal combined force against Russia, China, and other adversaries.
F-35 Beast Mode. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The Canadian decision should come at the end of this month, and the suspense is building. Canada is concerned about the availability of Block 4 upgrades for the F-35 and the ballooning price of the deal, as well as delays with 2024 deliveries.
Canada and the United States Are Becoming Frenemies
In 2022, then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau agreed to the original purchase of 88 F-35s. U.S. relations with Canada were on much firmer footing at that time. Canada was seen as a stout ally, and the export of the F-35 from its Lockheed Martin manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas, was welcomed as a shining example of what I call successful “fighter plane diplomacy.”
Canada would get a stealth airplane to replace its aging CF-18 fighter. Lockheed Martin and its workforce would reap the economic benefits.
Trump Made a Whole Country Mad
Problems became pronounced with the election of U.S. President Donald Trump in 2024, but they didn’t start there. First, the deal got more expensive. Canada was originally slated to pay $19 billion, but by 2024 the cost had ballooned to $27.7 billion.
Then Trump became belligerent against Canada. He placed tariffs on the northern neighbor and even claimed that Canada could become America’s 51st state.
Other problems were structural: The Canadian Air Force did not have enough trained pilots to man 88 F-35s. The air bases were not going to be ready for such an influx of modern airplanes. Hangars and runways need to be adjusted. Pilots would require extensive tutelage.
Two U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II aircraft, with the F-35 Demonstration Team, approach a U.S. Air Force KC-135 for in-flight refueling en route to their next airshow at Pensacola, Florida, on 28 October, 2024. The F-35 Demo Team travels to various bases to showcase the capabilities of the most advanced 5th generation fighter aircraft. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Nicholas Rupiper)
Canada announced it would reconsider the deal, and a replacement airplane from Sweden was under strong consideration. But the Americans were not going to take this lying down.
U.S. Ambassador is Fed Up With the Consternations
“If Canadians are flying one airplane, we’re flying another airplane; it’s no longer interchangeable,” Hoekstra, a former Congressman, told CTV in May. “And so, that might even threaten NORAD.”
Hoekstra was trying his best to convince the Canadian government to consummate the complete order of F-35s and complained that the whole saga was an “irritant.”
Then, the Swedes sweetened the deal they were offering. If Canada purchased the JAS 39 Gripen, Saab would allow some of the airplane’s parts and components to be made in Canada – further, perhaps the whole airplane could be assembled there.
This would be a good deal for Ottawa, and Carney would be seen creating jobs and boosting the economy. Technology transfers would be a problem, but both governments figured they could reach an accommodation.
A deal with Sweden would leave Canada buying the first batch of F-35s, then purchasing an unknown number of JAS 39s. This would incense the Trump administration, hurt Lockheed’s bottom line, and risk integrating a non-interoperable allied airplane into NORAD.
Militarily, having a combination of CF-18s, F-35s, and JAS 39 Gripens would be problematic. The Lightning IIs and Gripens would create the need for complicated and lengthy train-ups to fly the new models. Air bases would require further construction for hangars, runways, and other infrastructure. Maintenance ground crews would endure a steep learning curve.
But the Swedish offer may be irresistible, especially if the Gripens could be made in Canada. One can’t blame the Canadians for taking their time with such a difficult decision. Canada could take a first step toward reduced dependence on the United States, while boosting its own military industrial base with Gripen assembly. The F-35 requires American spare parts and components.
The F-35, however, is a better airplane than the Gripen. The latter is a fourth generation-plus fighter versus a fifth-generation fighter. The F-35 is also easily upgradable. Elite levels of sensor fusion make it more adept in combat. The Israelis transformed their F-35 into the F-35I Adir, which some think is now the best fighter in the world.
The Canadians nixing the F-35 purchase would rock the defense establishment in the United States. It could also lead to more tariffs being slapped on Ottawa.
How to Save the F-35 Deal
The responsibility falls on Trump. The president must make a personal plea to Carney for the F-35 deal to be successful. He must swallow some pride and play nicely to restore the draw of U.S. fighter plane diplomacy. Sweden is offering Canada a great deal, but the United States is sharing a better airplane. The Swedes are playing their hand better than the Americans at this point, and Lockheed Martin is holding its breath at the outcome.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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