Key Points and Summary – Canada is reconsidering its purchase of 88 F-35A jets amid trade tensions, even as 16 aircraft are already funded. Alternatives—Eurofighter Typhoon, Saab Gripen, and Dassault Rafale—offer credible air-policing, but each carries drawbacks: Typhoon lacks stealth and complicates NORAD integration; Gripen depends on a U.S. engine that Washington could withhold; Rafale faces scale and interoperability hurdles.
Dassault Rafale Fighter in India. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-Mixing fleets would add training, munitions, and basing costs and split a small pilot corps.
-With Canadian industry embedded in the F-35 supply chain and European production capacity uncertain, the Lightning II remains the favorite as Carney and Trump meet to discuss trade and defense this week.
F-35 Time: Canada May Say No to the Eurofighter Typhoon Again
The Canadian military did not reach an agreement to purchase the Eurofighter Typhoon in 2019, when it needed a replacement for its aging CF-18 fighter jet.
The Typhoon was considered too old and expensive to fit the bill. In January 2023, Canada did not finalize a contract to purchase 88 F-35s from the United States.
Still, that deal is now under review amid ongoing trade tensions and hostile rhetoric from the White House.
The Canadians have paid for the first batch of 16 F-35s, and the Country is reconsidering the idea of buying the Eurofighter Typhoon.
The Typhoon is not stealthy, but it is suitable for air policing. Canada has vast borders and shorelines that require an excellent jet for protecting its sovereignty. The Typhoon can perform that mission well.
What’s Great About the F-35?
But the F-35 has greater interoperability with NATO members, and it is a fifth-generation jet that serves as a “flying computer.”
The F-35, especially the one flown by Israel called the F-35I Adir, is one of the best, if not the best, fighter jets in the world. It can elude enemy air defenses, suppress them, bomb other targets, and return home safely.
The Eurofighter Typhoon Has Many Admirers
The Eurofighter Typhoon, on the other hand, is highly sought after on the export market. By 2024, there had been 680 orders for the Typhoon. Nine countries fly it, and five are European. Saudi Arabia and Turkey have bought the most Typhoons in the Middle East.
The F-35 Is Also Popular on the Export Market
The F-35 is also a strong choice for the Europeans. The Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, Norway, Switzerland, Finland, Romania, and Poland are operating the Lightning II.
Canada is uncertain about its F-35 agreement and is reconsidering it. President Donald Trump has been belligerent with the Canadians and U.S. tariffs have stung the northern neighbor.
In 2019, after Canada was reluctant to buy the Typhoon, Airbus and the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence withdrew the consortium from consideration for the contract to replace the CF-188. The Europeans considered the deal too complex to fulfill, and the Canadians thought the Eurofighter could not be purchased at an optimal price.
However, the Airbus partnership did believe that the Typhoon would have been a good choice for Canada to operate with NATO allies.
The F-35 already has a large group of Canadian defense contractors that make parts and components for the Lightning II. Prime Minister Mark Carney is considering economic development for Canada as part of his decision-making calculus.
What About Choosing the JAS 39 Gripen?
Canada is also considering the JAS 39 Gripen from Sweden’s Saab. Still, the Gripen relies on American-built engines, and the U.S. Department of War could restrict the Gripen’s access to General Electric powerplants. This would allow the Americans to kill the Gripen deal perhaps.
Another problem with the Typhoon mixing with the 16 F-35s already purchased is the need for pilots to be trained on two airframes. This would be challenging, as Canadian aviators would need to receive instruction from both American and European sources.
Then there would be the necessity of different types of munitions and flight infrastructure, such as hangars.
Canada Is Kicking the Tires on the Dassault Rafale
Canada could also choose the Dassault Rafale. “Company CEO Eric Trappier said in a recent interview with the French newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche that Dassault was increasing its production of planes, adding that it was ‘ready to provide its services’ to any country wanting to avoid the F-35,” the Ottawa Citizen wrote in April.
Despite all the competition and problems associated with dealing with the Americans, the F-35 remains the favorite.
The entire 88-airplane order may get final approval.
Could 88 Typhoons Be Built?
The Eurofighter is not produced in mass, and Airbus and the other consortium members may not be able to meet the entire purchase. Canada is considering this as it eyes the future of “fighter plane diplomacy” with the Europeans and Americans.
A UK Typhoon flies above the Baltics on 25 May 2022.
UK and Czech fighter jets have been taking part in air defence training over the Baltic region. UK Eurofighter Typhoons, F-35s and Czech Gripens were involved in an exercise as part of Neptune Shield 22 (NESH22), a multinational maritime vigilance activity. NESH22 has seen a range of multi-domain activities between air, land and maritime assets across Europe and in the Baltic and Mediterranean Seas. It runs from 17 to 31 May 2022.
Canada’s F-35 Fake Out?
Maybe Ottawa was planning this all along: to stall on an F-35 call until they can deal with America directly?
Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Trump are meeting this week to discuss economics and trade.
The F-35 deal will surely come up on the agenda. Trump will have to be well-intentioned to get Carney to agree to the F-35.
The Gripen and Typhoon both have disadvantages, and the Rafale is not considered as good an airplane as the F-35. The Lightning II may end up winning after all.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II, assigned to the 421st Expeditionary Fighter Squadron, Hill Air Force Base, Utah, prepares for take off at Kadena Air Base, Japan, July 1, 2025. The continuous rotation of aircraft to Kadena ensures the 18th Wing remains flexible and postured to deliver lethal and credible airpower to deter acts of aggression. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman Nathaniel Jackson)
Carney may get some pushback from his citizens, who are tired of Trump bashing their country. The tariffs are annoying and could ultimately result in the loss of Canadian export jobs. But the F-35 will keep many Canadian aerospace workers employed.
The Canadians are playing hard to get, but Trump knows how to ooze charm when it comes to negotiating deals. He must remain on Carney’s good side for the F-35 deal to happen at full strength. This will be a significant step toward improving relations between the two neighbors.
Meanwhile, European manufacturers of the Typhoon, Rafale, and Gripen may ultimately be disappointed.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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