Key Points and Summary – This piece explores newly published PLA-linked research showing that disabling Elon Musk’s Starlink network over Taiwan would be far harder than Beijing once assumed.
-Chinese simulations conclude that blinding Starlink during an invasion is technically feasible but could require 1,000–2,000 jamming drones, a massive resource commitment.
The 354th Fighter Wing conducts a 75-fighter jet formation at Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska, Aug. 12, 2022, in honor of the U.S. Air Force’s 75th Anniversary. This capabilities demonstration included F-35A Lightning II, F-16 Fighting Falcon and F-22 Raptor aircraft from across Pacific Air Forces. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Gary Hilton)
-Set against CIA debates over Xi Jinping’s 2027 readiness timeline, the article shows how Ukraine’s use of Starlink has reshaped PLA thinking and exposed the impact of private commercial space assets on modern war.
-It also highlights China’s “whole of society” effort to model a Taiwan conflict—and why Starlink is now central to it.
Taiwan Invasion War Game: Why PLA Researchers Say Shutting Down Starlink Is Nearly Impossible
SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA – For some time now, the assumption has been that the first act of an attempted invasion of the Republic of China (ROC) on Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) would begin with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on the mainland launching a few strikes that would knock out all of the communications on the small island nation.
The ROC armed forces would consequently be unable to coordinate their actions and would not even be able to warn anyone that “the enemy is coming this way,” etc. Just a handful of anti-satellite weapons and some other attacks to take out infrastructure, and Taiwan would be deaf, dumb, and blind.
But, as they say in the movies, “not so fast.”
One of the most prominent “learning examples” of how an invasion of the ROC might unfold has been the war in Ukraine, which the PLA has been studying in granular detail.
One of the key technological innovations in the commercial sphere that has made a huge difference in Ukrainians’ resistance to the Russian invasion is the use of Elon Musk’s famous Starlink system.
F-16 Fighting Falcons assigned to the 114th Fighter Wing sit ready on the ramp while conducting an elephant walk at Joe Foss Field, South Dakota, July 2, 2025. The 114th Fighter Wing conducted an elephant walk to demonstrate its ability to project fighter airpower. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Master Sgt. Luke Olson)
Naturally, some in Beijing working on an ROC invasion plan have been examining how to cripple the island nation’s defenses by disabling Starlink. Given that it is a non-military system that is not hardened and lacks multiple redundancies, some PLA officers initially thought this would be an easy task.
Thousands of Jammers Needed
But two recent papers from a PRC scientific publication, the Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics, turned up some not-so-happy findings. Among other conclusions, the researchers found that blocking the Starlink satellites operated by Musk’s SpaceX in orbit over the ROC was technically feasible.
However, they also determined that this was not a case of knocking out a few birds in orbit; it is all over. Their findings, instead, were that blinding the Starlink system would require a resource-intensive deployment of between 1,000 and 2,000 jamming drones.
Here in the Far East and just south of the border of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), the issue of the ROC, as well as how and when the PRC might decide to attack them, weighs more on people’s minds every day.
U.S. Air Force Major Jacob Rohrbach, a pilot assigned to the 40th Flight Test Squadron at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, releases the first Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile Extended Range, or JASSM-ER, from an F-16 over the Gulf of Mexico on September 19th, 2018. The test gathered data on safe separation and software integration of the JASSM-ER, and demonstrated the Eglin test range’s ability to monitor and control test items in flight over the Gulf of Mexico.
“It is impossible to say what might or might not cause the PRC to decide it is time to attempt a takeover,” said one Asian security specialist who spoke to National Security Journal.
“What if the Ukraine war ends suddenly after this frantic week of negotiations? Does that make it such that the PLA then believes they must attack Taiwan immediately before the US has the chance to shift military resources to the Far East?” he asked.
“On other hand, what if the war continues. Does the PRC then wait and see the degree to which the US military and its munitions stockpiles are depleted and there is no military aid left to for the US to send to the ROC?”
Timetables and a Whole of Society
Analysts at the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) have also been examining how many resources Beijing would need to mount a takeover of the ROC. As is always the case in major intelligence assessments, the opinions are rather divided.
The Agency has stated in the past that PRC Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping has instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027 – just around the corner, so to speak. At the same time, what has been described as a “consensus of analysts” within the CIA has it that Xi has no intention of launching an invasion force any time soon.
On the PRC side, their research establishments connected to the PLA have conducted simulations of how easy or difficult it would be to block Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite communications system should the PRC invade.
Drawing on the Russian experience in Ukraine, PRC researchers determined that blocking Starlink satellites was technically feasible, but the challenge would be the resources required to carry it out.
An 80th Fighter Squadron F-16 pilot prepares for takeoff on Kunsan Air Base, Republic of Korea, Oct. 26, 2020. The 8th FW is home to two fighter squadrons, the 35th Fighter Squadron “Pantons” and the 80th FS “Juvats.” (U.S Air Force photo by Senior Airman Jessica Blair)
These researchers are on the staff of some of the “seven sons of national defense” – universities in the PRC designated as specializing in military research – and have been engaged in this effort as of late.
These include scientists from the Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT), one of the “seven sons” universities, and Zhejiang University, sometimes referred to as “China’s Stanford,” as well as other institutions focused on astronautics that were involved in the research and simulation exercises.
According to both English- and Chinese-language publications, PLA generals were reportedly shocked by the outcome of these exercises. The private-sector resources of a billionaire like Elon Musk create an entirely new type of battlefield if brought into a conflict; they are a possibility they had never considered.
What has also come to the attention of Western analysts of the PLA is that these research projects show a “whole of society” approach in the PRC towards gaming out war scenarios involving the nation’s potential adversaries. As with all other endeavours of the PLA, when it comes to the PRC’s military ambitions, resources are never a problem.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
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Shitpile
November 26, 2025 at 1:10 pm
Starlink has been a serious threat in the ukro conflict, but in the coming conflict in the western pacific, Starlink would be a minor player.
So, what’s the real threat or threats.
Real danger or real threat or real staring-at-ya-right-in-the-face deaths are uncle sam’s space-based interceptors (SBI), nukes hurled by b-1 bombers and b61-13 doomsday nukes carried by fighters.