Sometimes, provocative missile tests by the Chinese are frightening and symbolic of Beijing’s rocket forces, particularly its Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles, being a force to be reckoned with. The latest test that China conducted with an ICBM that splashed into the Pacific Ocean this week was surprisingly called a “good thing” by a spokesperson for the Department of Defense. The press secretary referred to how the Chinese gave advance notice to their Pentagon counterparts before the launch.
“We did receive some advanced notification of this ICBM test, and we believe that that was a good thing,” Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters on September 25. “It’s a step in the right direction and it does lead to preventing any misperception or miscalculation.”
Does China Have Five Hundred Nuclear Warheads?
Well, that is one way to put lipstick on a nuclear pig.
Some communication about an ICBM test is better than no word from the Chinese that it is conducting a significant test of a powerful nuclear weapon. But stubborn facts remain. The Chinese have an estimated 500 nuclear warheads that are mated to various missiles in their arsenal. They have walked away from arms talks and refuse to discuss any nuclear weapons limitations because of U.S. conventional arms sales to Taiwan. They aim to have 1,500 nuclear warheads to match the strength of the United States shortly.
Japan, Australia, and New Zealand Are Miffed
The latest test was a substantial act that hasn’t happened in 40 years. The Chinese said they gave “relevant countries” prior notice, but Japan, a potential Chinese target, received no early warning. The Australians and New Zealanders were also peeved at the launch.
ICBM Test: It Hasn’t Happened in a Long Time
The Chinese usually test fire ICBMs in the Taklamakan Desert in the Xinjiang region. This was the first test in the Pacific since the 1980s amidst current tensions in the area that have some U.S. military analysts wondering if China has designs on Taiwan and even Guam.
China, unlike Russia, doesn’t often brag loudly about its weapons systems tests. Indeed, Beijing claimed the latest launch was routine and part of normal military practices.
Is China Getting Mad?
I don’t believe that. Xi Jinping is likely pleased that his rocket forces had such a successful test. The Chinese are already fighting mad about a U.S. offensive missile system that was just deployed to the Philippines, and they want the Americans to remove it. The Biden administration has decided in defiance that the Typhon missile system will stay.
China as a Global Leader in Nuclear Weapons
China’s actions are usually symbolic and done for propaganda effect to show its citizens and the international community that Beijing is serious about its nuclear program. It wants to be a global nuclear power and respected as a leader in the development of doomsday weapons.
How Close Are We to Nuclear War with China?
Would the Chinese do the unthinkable and ponder a nuclear launch at the United States? Xi would not conduct a first-use strike, but he could order another test launch that would fall closer to Japan or Guam to show that he would answer back aggressively if, say, there was an amphibious attack against Taiwan that was unsuccessful. Such a test could freeze U.S. and Japanese military activity during or after a Taiwan military action.
This Is a Serious Development, Not a ‘Good Thing’
This test is significant and not “a good thing,” as the Biden administration wants us to believe. This was an important milestone for Beijing and will have a ripple effect in the region. Japan, Australia, and New Zealand are important allies, and if they are concerned about the test, U.S. rhetoric should be severe and clear-eyed – not complimentary and submissive.
New Arms Control Talks for a Harris Administration
Perhaps the White House has last-minute plans to bring China to agree to arms control talks and lay the foundation for Vice President Kamala Harris, should she win the presidency, for new negotiations with the Chinese. I am on the record in my latest book for renewed arms control talks with Xi. However, Xi is already playing a winning hand with this test as his “ace” that will win some bragging rights on the Mainland.
I don’t see a future Trump administration interested in arms control talks with the Chinese. Look for at least one other ICBM test by China, likely on Presidential Inauguration Day in January 2025. This will signify that the Middle Kingdom is not a “middling” nuclear power.
About the Author
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
Commentar
September 26, 2024 at 4:31 pm
The test is just a doggies ponies show, nothing ekse.
America regularly makes such tests, there was one year one missile went off course and landed near north of australia.
ICBMs are passe, they won’t make it past the missile & ABM systems now already available in south korea, japan, okinawa, guam, alaska, hawaiu and the navy’s modern Aegis ships piddling around in the pacific.
China testing misdile is just a wasts of time. What china has failed to do is take cognizance of the AUKUS threat now growing in the west pacific.
AUKUS is made up of australia. UK and US.
Australia is now developing the HACM missile with US, a direct threat to china’s defense of its home waters, also acquiring nuke subs, soon to manufacture and operate the feared JSMs and NSMs, the air-transportable HIMARS rockets system and already buying f-35s.
Various UK officials have openly talked of direct war with china by 2030 due to taiwan issue and SCS.
US of course has done the same and so, AUKUS is becoming a very grave threat but is china prepared. Not prepared at all as it is only seen playing with its doggies ponies toy.
pagar
September 27, 2024 at 2:34 am
China has 500 nuke warheads.
That’s a pittance compared to america’s nuke arsenal.
US has something like 5,000 nukes (in reality it’s more than this) with about 1,200 of them awaiting disposal.
That leaves US with about 3,800 active nukes.
About 2,000 are in storage or held in reserve. Heh, heh, whatever this supposed to mean.
So, that leaves the galactic empire with still a big nice arsenal of ready for immediate use nukes amounting to 1,800.
Of that total, just over 10% are (b61) tactical nukes currently kept abroad in netherlands, germany, italy and turkey. About or nearly 200 of such nasty terrestrial eggs.
Thus the US poses the greatest threat to global peace today.No other nation keeps its land-based nukes far away from home.