Democrats Face New Trump Impeachment Problems

Key Points – As Representative Shri Thanedar pushes for a third impeachment vote against President Trump, the impact of past impeachment efforts comes under scrutiny.

-Despite two impeachments during his first term (over Ukraine and January 6th), neither resulted in removal nor prevented his 2024 popular vote victory and return to office.

-Historical analysis suggests these prior attempts left Trump largely unscathed with his base and may have even fueled his “grievance” narrative.

-Thanedar’s current effort, lacking broad Democratic support and facing certain failure in the Republican-controlled Congress, raises questions about its strategic wisdom given this precedent.

The Democrats Have a Trump Impeachment Challenge to Figure Out

Donald Trump, of course, was impeached twice in his first term, meaning that of the four presidential impeachments in U.S. history, 50 percent of them were of Trump.

But neither of those impeachments resulted in Trump’s removal or disqualification from office, nor did they prevent him from returning to the presidency after winning the first popular vote victory of his three presidential campaigns.

So, as one Democratic Congressman has introduced articles of impeachment against Trump, and even pushed to force a vote on the impeachment question, it should be asked whether the impeachments of the past hurt Trump, or possibly even helped him.

“Impeachment Scam #1 and Impeachment Scam #2”

In both of Trump’s first-term impeachments, as well as in the prospect of a third one in his second presidency, one thing has been fairly apparent to everyone involved in the process: There was virtually no chance of Trump being convicted and removed from office.

In the first impeachment over the phone call to Ukraine’s President Zelensky, there was never any serious chance that Trump would be convicted in the Senate, with only one Republican voting for the president’s removal. In the second, more Republicans voted to convict Trump, but not enough to disqualify him.

That second impeachment vote, over the January 6 insurrection, was held after Trump left office, and represents one of the great what-ifs of American political history- what if a few more Republicans had voted to convict, and therefore disqualified Trump for a second term? That would mean Trump would not be president today, and may have even faced serious legal jeopardy for the things he did in office.

But instead, Trump was able to use resentment over the impeachments, the indictments, and numerous other slights to fuel his sense of grievance and that of his supporters.

A Warning From 2020

An MSNBC op-ed by David Mark, published in February of 2020, saw this coming.

Writing during the 2020 campaign cycle, after Trump was impeached but acquitted in the first impeachment trial, Mark wrote that “impeachment has come and gone, and President Donald Trump remains firmly ensconced in the Oval Office.”

In Mark’s eyes, the impeachment had left Trump mostly unscathed, as well as more loved by his base than ever. The argument was that the impeachment process didn’t do a great deal to affect anyone’s opinion of Trump, and if anything, may have helped him.

Democrats, he wrote, “should be smarting to discover that not only did the bald evidence of presidential misconduct not move the needle among Republicans; it also didn’t move the needle among the general public — at least, not to the president’s detriment.”

That op-ed was written weeks before the arrival of the COVID pandemic in the United States, which ended up becoming the dominant issue in the 2020 election, much more than anything involving the impeachment process.

But by 2024, the accumulated effect of all of the efforts to hold Trump to account, whether the impeachments or the indictments, likely helped Trump push a narrative of persecution.

Trying Again

Now, Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-MI) is pushing to impeach Trump a third time, for a wide variety of offenses. The impeachment resolution, with seven articles, has been introduced, with Thanedar this week moving to force a vote.

Per CNN, much of Thanedar’s party is upset with him about the move, for several reasons: it has no hope of working, it will force Democrats in swing districts into a tough vote that’s unlikely to help them, and the effort does not have the support of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and the rest of the party’s leadership.

Thanedar, though, defended himself to CNN.

“We get into fights where we may or may not win. We’re not only going to fight the winning fights, we’re going to do it because it’s the right thing to do,” the Congressman said.

About the Author:

Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.

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