Did the Ukraine War Make the Tank Obsolete?

Key Points: Ever since Russia crossed into Ukraine, debates have emerged among various think tanks about the role of tanks in modern warfare.

-With pictures of destroyed Russian tanks flooding the internet, it seemed clear that tanks have become obsolete and are not suited to the challenges of modern war.

-This conclusion was seemingly vindicated by the proliferation of cheap FPV drones, which could easily destroy multimillion-dollar Western tanks.

-However, three years into the war, tanks are still being widely used by both sides.

-Did Russia and Ukraine not get the memo, or is there still a need for tanks on the battlefield?

Long Live the Tank

In a recent interview with Business Insider, US Army Secretary Daniel Driscol gave his thoughts on the great tank debate.

“Where people have started to predict the death of the tank, I think they’re misunderstanding what probably will happen,” the former armor officer said. Driscol envisions a not-so-distant future in which tanks assume a more exploitative role in combat rather than the breakthrough role they’ve always had.

Instead, the role of breakthrough machine will likely be given to autonomous vehicles and robots. “Once you’re able to break through with autonomous vehicles and robots and cyber warfare and help from space assets,” Driscol said, “you will then probably start to see a lot of the most powerful weapons on planet Earth, which is the M1A2 tank, roll forward and continue to get in the fight.”

In this vision of future warfare, tanks will sit back in defensive positions until unmanned vehicles can create a breakthrough in enemy lines. The tanks will then exploit these breakthroughs, effectively providing fire support for infantry.

Tanks Have Not Had It Easy in Ukraine

Driscol’s comments highlight the need for tanks to adapt to the challenges of modern warfare. The current conflict in Ukraine has highlighted the many ways tanks are vulnerable to modern armaments.

Much ink has been spilled over the Ukrainians’ effective use of the Javelin and NLAW ATGMs; these systems, among others, have taken their toll on Russian armored forces. On the flip side, Russian systems like the Kornet and the air-launched Vikhr ATGMs have proven more than capable of decimating Ukrainian armor, even against Western-made armor.

Drones have been the biggest game changers in all of modern warfare. Drones have enabled armies to conduct surveillance, carry out long-range precision strikes, and perform various other tactical functions. Tanks have been revealed to be critically vulnerable to drones. With cheap civilian drones and a shaped explosive charge, experienced pilots are able to pinpoint any tank’s weak points and knock out a sophisticated million-dollar machine. If one drone misses its mark, no problem. Due to the wide proliferation of these drones, tanks can be swarmed with dozens of drones before they are finally knocked out.

Tanks Need to Adapt

The tank is not dead; rather, it needs to adapt to its present circumstances. Its defenses against kamikaze drones need to be addressed, and they are still exceedingly vulnerable to ATGMs. One approach that has been taken by both Ukrainians and Russians is adding additional armor and anti-drone netting and rails on top of tanks.

These improvised measures (famously referred to as “cope cages” online) are better than nothing but are more of a band-aid solution than a comprehensive defense. Another measure is installing EW devices on top of tanks to jam incoming drones. This method sounds good on paper, but in practice, drone frequencies change frequently, and fiber optics have made drones more difficult to jam.

Doctrinally, armies need to rethink how tanks are used. Because of the changing nature of warfare, tanks simply are not cut out for the breakthrough role that they’ve occupied for so long. Secretary Driscol’s comments about the tank assuming a defensive and exploitative role are interesting and are likely where tanks will end up being used. The role of breakthrough tank will likely be given to autonomous machines, as Driscol predicts, to put fewer lives at risk.

Tank designs will also need to be changed to accommodate future battlefield realities. Many tank designers are already looking into potential next-generation designs. For all the faults of the project, the T-14 Armata took many steps in the right direction with its unmanned turret, active protection systems, and other features. Western designs like the AbramsX, Leopard-3, and others are incorporating and improving upon many of the design features of the Armata in order to define the next generation of main battle tanks.

Tanks Are Here to Stay

Despite the challenges of modern warfare, tanks will always be a battlefield necessity, but their roles will evolve. Prior to WWII, Heinz Guderian wrote that battlefield realities necessitated three types of tanks: light, medium, and heavy to carry various roles from reconnaissance to breakthrough. In the Cold War, tank doctrine shifted, requiring a platform that can carry out all roles, leading to the MBT. Now it is time for the tank to change again.

About the Author:

Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.

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