Trump Is Below 40% in Poll After Poll as the Midterms Approach – President Donald Trump remains below 40 percent approval in several recent national surveys, giving Republicans a serious political problem with the November midterms approaching. A Forbes review of the latest polling found a consistent pattern across organizations using different samples and methods.
The newest CBS News/YouGov survey placed Trump at 39 percent approval and 61 percent disapproval. Half of the country strongly disapproved of his job performance, compared with 22 percent who strongly approved. The full CBS polling results also gave Trump negative ratings on the economy, inflation, immigration and Iran.
President Donald J. Trump attends Superbowl LIX between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, February 9, 2025, at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
President Donald Trump attends the National Prayer Breakfast, Thursday, February 6, 2025, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley.)
Fox News produced nearly the same overall result. Its national survey put Trump at 39 percent approval for the third consecutive month. Voters disapproved of his handling of inflation by 73 percent to 27 percent, the economy by 67 percent to 33 percent and Iran by 66 percent to 34 percent. The Fox News poll also found widespread dissatisfaction with the broader political and economic system.
Echelon Insights measured Trump at 38 percent approval and 61 percent disapproval in its July voter survey. The situation is poor without being a continuous collapse. The Silver Bulletin polling average placed Trump 17.4 points underwater on July 27, an improvement from his second-term low of minus 20.2 in May.
Trump’s Economic Ratings Are the Main Political Danger
The CBS results explain why Trump has struggled to recover. Seventy-five percent said their income was not keeping pace with inflation, 59 percent believed the economy was getting worse and 58 percent said Trump’s policies had made them financially worse off. The polling slump continued even after the White House presented the Iran agreement as a major victory.
Voters also believe the administration is concentrating on the wrong subjects. Seventy-eight percent said Trump was not focused enough on lowering prices, while 60 percent said he was spending too much time on tariffs. New duties have also complicated relations with allies such as Canada, turning trade policy into a wider diplomatic and industrial dispute.
The economy and Iran are no longer separate political problems. Energy disruption raises gasoline and shipping costs, while the administration’s military campaign requires additional federal spending. Earlier polling already showed the war and inflation moving together in voters’ judgments. The conflict is increasingly drawing comparisons with previous wars that became political liabilities, while the unresolved Hormuz dispute leaves Trump with no inexpensive route to a settlement.
Republicans Face a Midterm Turnout Problem
Fox News found Democrats leading the generic House ballot by 53 percent to 46 percent. In counties where the 2024 presidential result was within 10 points, the Democratic candidate led 59 percent to 41 percent. Democrats also held an 11-point advantage in the share of voters who described themselves as extremely motivated to participate.
A national ballot does not determine control of the House. District boundaries, candidate quality and turnout will decide individual races. The figures still show that dissatisfaction with Trump is reaching the congressional contest. Immigration remains his strongest major issue in the Fox survey, yet even there he was underwater, and aggressive enforcement cases have created new political vulnerabilities for the administration.
Trump’s Republican Base Prevents a Complete Collapse
Trump continues to benefit from strong loyalty among Republican voters. That support explains why his approval has remained in the upper 30s rather than falling much lower despite months of unfavorable economic and foreign-policy news.
The base alone is not enough to protect every Republican candidate. Competitive House and Senate races require independents, occasional voters and Republicans who are less personally committed to Trump. Those voters are evaluating a presidency in which prices remain high, the Iran war remains unresolved, and the administration keeps asking for patience.
With the midterms only months away, the White House has limited time to give them a different experience.
About the Author: Harry J. Kazianis
Harry J. Kazianis (@Grecianformula) was the former Senior Director of National Security Affairs at the Center for the National Interest (CFTNI), a foreign policy think tank founded by Richard Nixon based in Washington, DC. Harry has over a decade of experience in think tanks and national security publishing. His ideas have been published in the NY Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, and many other outlets worldwide. He has held positions at CSIS, the Heritage Foundation, the University of Nottingham, and several other institutions related to national security research and studies. He is the former Executive Editor of the National Interest and the Diplomat. He holds a Master’s degree focusing on international affairs from Harvard University.
