Key Points and Summary – Ukraine’s air force entered the war flying tired MiG-29s, Su-27s, and Su-24s. Now, pledged F-16s, Gripens, and Rafales could give Kyiv one of Europe’s most modern fighter mixes—if it can absorb them.
-Dr. Brent M. Eastwood argues the real challenge is not just pilots and tactics, but sustainment, industrial capacity, and education.
JAS 39 Gripen Fighter from Back in 2017. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-Ukraine will need trained ground crews, spare parts, pipelines, tankers, and, eventually, its own stealth strike platforms and an aerospace talent base to keep pace with Russia’s Su-57s and future designs.
-The new jets are a huge step, but a truly top-tier Ukrainian air force is still a decade-long project.
Can the Ukrainian Air Force Be One of the Best in Europe in the Next Ten Years?
Protracted warfare can either strengthen or weaken forces.
The Russo-Ukrainian war is entering its fourth year, and Kyiv continues to transform its combat capability.
But fighting has still devolved into a ground conflict akin to “World War One with drones.”
Stand-off missiles and glide bombs have replaced significant aerial battles, with warplanes relying on short-range missiles and close-in cannons.
Unmanned craft from Ukraine have conducted the long-range strikes deep into Russia, while Ukrainian fighter jets have not played a decisive role.
But since the war began, the Ukrainian air force has become sneakily good and could even be one of the best in Europe in the next ten years.
The United States Air Force Air Demonstration Squadron “Thunderbirds” perform at the Defenders of Liberty Airshow at Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana, March 29-30, 2025. The Thunderbirds perform at air shows across the country to showcase the capabilities of the United States Air Force, its Airmen, and the F-16 Fighting Falcon. During World War II, Barksdale served as a major bomber training base, and it has since become the home of the 2nd Bomb Wing, the oldest bomb wing in the Air Force. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Keith James)
A U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon from the 31st Fighter Wing, Aviano Air Base, Italy, descends after receiving fuel from a KC-135 Stratotanker from the 100th Air Refueling Wing, RAF Mildenhall, England, over the Adriatic Sea, Aug 7, 2025. The F-16 is a compact, highly maneuverable multi-role fighter aircraft with robust air-to-air combat and air-to-surface attack capabilities. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Christopher Campbell)
It has benefitted from international generosity. Kyiv has acquired donated F-16s and will be getting perhaps 150 JAS 39 Gripens and up to 100 Dassault Rafales.
Can these airplanes make a difference in the war before a ceasefire?
Ukrainian Aviators Need to Fly More Modern Airplanes
The Ukrainian pilots have work to do in training, but they have proved their worth in older Soviet-era aircraft such as the MiG-29 and Su-27, as well as the old standby from France, the Mirage 2000.
These are aging and not the kind of fleet that could dominate Russia if this war continues.
Ukraine Plays an Ace with the Gripen
The JAS 39 Gripen is a different story. The Gripen is a capable 4.5-generation airplane. Able to conduct air policing missions, dogfighting, and ground strike, this is one valuable warbird that will make the Ukrainians smile.
The surface-strike capability would be the most interesting addition to Ukraine’s military efforts. The fight on the ground is close-in, with Russians even riding motorcycles into battle. Ukraine needs support for its infantry.
The Gripen is perfect for this role.
JAS 39 Gripen. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
It can launch air-to-ground missiles, such as the AGM-65 Maverick, and cruise missiles, such as the Taurus KEPD 350. For taking out tanks and armored vehicles, there is the Brimstone missile.
Rafales Are Ready for the Fight Against Russia
The Dassault Rafale launches HAMMER air-to-ground munitions, SCALP-EG cruise missiles, plus a variety of precision-guided bombs.
It has an “omnirole” capability that allows it to start a dogfighting mission and quickly toggle to surface strike in a single sortie.
But close air support may not be enough to win the war. The Ukrainian air force has significant potential with these new planes, but it is still likely 10 years away from air dominance. It takes substantial time to acquire the skill and expertise with a diverse range of airplanes.
Ukraine depends on the United States for training and now must work with Sweden and France to operate the Gripen and Rafale.
Sustaining a Modern Air Force Is Not Easy
Plus, there are bigger sustainability challenges. Will the Ukrainian ground crews be able to service the new airplanes so they remain in the air for multiple mission sets and sorties each day? Spare parts and components need a steady pipeline from the manufacturer.
The new weapons are complex and finicky. Ground crews must be trained to operate at a high operational tempo.
A Modern Bomber Is Needed
The Ukrainians also need aerial refueling tankers and at least one new bomber to be one of the best air forces in Europe in the coming decade.
They have depended on the Su-24 tactical bomber inherited from the Soviet Union, but this is aging quickly. Instead, the Ukrainians have focused on drones for long-range strikes.
Dassault Rafale Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
But the Russians are getting better at defending against these attacks. Ukraine would need to develop its own stealth fighter-bomber to grow capabilities in the next ten years.
Can the Ukrainian Aerospace Industry Compete?
This means Ukraine would need a skilled workforce and billions of dollars to build its air force. Can a homegrown airplane be built?
Aviation requires a high level of concentration and specialized education among aerospace engineers, designers, and technicians. Ukrainian universities must be transformed to create this level of human capital.
Engineers would also have to be capable of developing stealth coatings, intelligence and surveillance capabilities, and electronic warfare. These types of skills take years to acquire.
Eventually, Ukraine will need to train its own pilots to fly modern aircraft. This means having a pipeline of competent, capable officers, as well as new flight simulators that incorporate artificial intelligence and virtual reality. The Ukrainians are motivated and patriotic, but they must be mentally and physically prepared to fly the Gripen and Rafale in the coming years.
Pilots must perform in intricate war games and exercises during peacetime to maintain training and skills.
If Ukraine ever becomes a member of NATO, battle simulations with partners become even more critical. The Ukrainian pilots would need to have interoperable skills to fly with the alliance.
Meanwhile, Russia will be improving its air force with more Su-57 Felon fifth-generation fighters and the future sixth-generation MiG-41 if it ever enters full-time service.
For a modern air force, Ukraine also needs its aerospace industry to be educated on software and artificial intelligence. This means that training institutes and higher education institutions need to offer STEM degrees for the research and development required over the next decade.
Thus, Ukraine has its work cut out for it to become an air force capable of dominating the skies. An aerospace supply chain must be created. Education is paramount for recruiting and retaining the highly skilled workers needed for a 21st-century air force.
The Ukrainians badly need their own indigenous stealth fighters and bombers. It remains to be seen if they could ever attain those luxuries. Information technology is essential, and the Ukrainians have shown they can be ingenious with their combat drone production.
Ukraine could have one of the top air forces on the continent, but it is missing many components.
The new aircraft will give the home team a burst of confidence and morale, but this can wear out quickly, and sustaining expertise with modern airplanes is not easy. Ukraine is off to a good start, though.
The F-16, the Gripen, and Rafale make for an intriguing mix, but the air force has some missing holes to fill before it can declare that it has the right stuff for air dominance in the next ten years.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Author of now over 3,000 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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