F-35 vs. JAS 39 Gripen Fighter Debate In Canada Might Already Be Decided

Key Points and Summary – Canada’s long-running F-35 vs. Gripen drama just escalated.

-A leaked, highly classified 2021 scoring chart reportedly shows the F-35 crushing Saab’s JAS 39 Gripen in technical and military capability, putting Prime Minister Mark Carney in a political bind.

A U.S. Air Force F-35 Lightning II assigned to the 421st Fighter Squadron, Hill Air Force Base (AFB), Utah, prepares to launch out for a Red Flag-Nellis 24-1 mission while another takes off at Nellis AFB, Jan. 23, 2024. This Red Flag will have approximately 30 units and close to 2,000 participants from U.S. and Allied forces. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Zachary Rufus)

-The evaluation—done by RCAF brass—appears to confirm what many suspected: the Air Force wants the American stealth jet. Saab counters that the chart is outdated, predates major F-35 Block 4 problems, and doesn’t reflect its latest Gripen upgrades.

-Opponents also warn of cost, dependence on U.S.-controlled software, and Trump-era tensions, while Ottawa still delays a final decision.

Did Canada’s Air Force Secretly Choose the F-35 Over Gripen?

The drama surrounding the Royal Canadian Air Force’s (RCAF’s) decision on whether to continue to purchase the U.S.-made F-35 Lightning II or jump ship to the Swedish-made Saab JAS 39 Gripen continues unabated.

Accordingly, this writer now looks at latest developments concerning Canada’s F-35 vs. Gripen controversy.

According to one report, the RCAF may have already shown its proverbial hand, thus putting the administration of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in a rather awkward position.

PHILIPPINE SEA (Dec. 11, 2023) An F-35C Lightning II, assigned to the “War Hawks” of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 97, recovers aboard Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70). Vinson, the flagship of Carrier Strike Group ONE, is deployed to the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Benjamin Ringers)

The Basics

This intriguing revelation comes to us courtesy of reporter David Pugliese of The Ottawa Citizen in an article titled “Leak of F-35 scoring chart puts pressure on Carney to select U.S. aircraft.”

To wit, ”On Nov. 26, Radio-Canada reported that it had obtained the DND [Department of National Defence] technical scoring statistics of the F-35 and Gripen. The internal confidential document, which was part of the original bid evaluation in 2021, shows the F-35 dominated the Gripen in terms of technical and military capabilities, Radio-Canada reported…Defence industry analysts point out that the leaked document was so confidential that even Saab, the firm that builds the Gripen, had never seen it before.”

Pugliese adds that those same analysts suggest certain individuals within the DND and RCAF need to pressure Carney to finally decide in favor of the U.S.-made fifth-generation fighter jet. Defense Minister David McGuinty is an unabashedly pro-Lightning II voice in the Carney Administration; McGuinty’s Director of Communications, Alice Hansen, publicly stated that her boss was not involved in the leak.

Saab Skepticism

The results of the leaked report are no big surprise. The technical scoring itself was done by the RCAF brass, which has been lobbying for years to purchase the F-35.

In April 2024, the National Post alleged bias on the RCAF’s part , writing that the competition for the new fighter jet was rigged right from the get-go to favor the Lockheed Martin Skunk Works product.

Understandably, Saab executives are skeptical. Their retorts are as follows:

JAS 39 Gripen Fighter from Back in 2017. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

-The chart is four years old (long before Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump took office) and the new, significantly advanced version of the Gripen has come along since then.

-The chart was also produced before the latest significant problems dogging the Block 4 variant of the F-35—which is the variant the Canadian government is expected to purchase—emerged.

-Among those Block 4 maladies, the aircraft is at least $6 billion over budget and five years behind schedule, according to a Sept. 3 report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

Meanwhile, the Gripen would indeed confer certain advantages for the RCAF:

-First and foremost, cost differential: The F-35’s operational cost per flight hour is a mind-numbing $33,000 while the JAS 39 hourly rate is a mere $7,500 (at least according to Saab’s claims). The Canadian DND doesn’t have nearly as much money to spend as the U.S. Department of Defense, so that’s no trifling matter.

-The JAS 39 is designed for short takeoff and landing operations, which allows it to operate from improvised airstrips. (But then again, the U.S. Marine Corps’ F-35B variant also happens to have short takeoff and vertical landing capability)

A Swedish Air Force JAS 39 Gripen participating in NATO exercise Ramstein Flag 24 flies over the west coast of Greece, Oct. 4, 2024. Over 130 fighter and enabler aircraft from Greece, Canada, France, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and United States are training side by side to improve tactics and foster more robust integration, demonstrating NATO’s resolve, commitment and ability to deter potential adversaries and defend the Alliance. (U.S. Air Force photo by Tech. Sgt. Emili Koonce)

-The Swedish warbird has been designed for interoperability with NATO forces via shared datalinks and standardized communication systems, as demonstrated by Hungarian and Czech pilots conducting air policing operations over the Baltic since 2004.

Additional Canadian Concerns & Considerations

Political considerations abound, particularly the concern that the full F-35 purchase would create a “hostage” situation for Canada’s military (figuratively speaking, of course).

The Canadian fighter pilot community would lack autonomy, as the United States controls all software upgrades on the warbird. Without those upgrades, no country can hope to operate the Lightning for long. (Currently a total of 18 nations are foreign military sales customers of the F-35.)

Canada’s anti-F-35 pundits say that the deal made sense when the U.S. was a strong ally, and when alliances were anchored by the Americans. But thanks to Donald Trump’s trolling about annexing Canada and seizing Greenland from NATO ally Denmark, these pundits deem the U.S. as being no longer trustworthy.

Meanwhile, the clock continues to tick on Mr. Carney’s final decision.

About the Author: Christian D. Orr, Defense Expert

Christian D. Orr is a Senior Defense Editor. He is a former Air Force Security Forces officer, Federal law enforcement officer, and private military contractor (with assignments worked in Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Japan, Germany, and the Pentagon). Chris holds a B.A. in International Relations from the University of Southern California (USC) and an M.A. in Intelligence Studies (concentration in Terrorism Studies) from American Military University (AMU). He is also the author of the newly published book “Five Decades of a Fabulous Firearm: Celebrating the 50th Anniversary of the Beretta 92 Pistol Series.”