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What Happens If Israel Strikes Iran’s Nuclear Sites?

An Israeli F-15I Ra'am assigned to the 69th Squadron launches for a sortie in support of exercise Juniper Falcon May 7, at Uvda Air Base, Israel. Juniper Falcon 17 represents the combination of several bi-lateral component/ Israeli Defense Force exercises that have been executed annually since 2011. These exercises were combined to increase joint training opportunities and capitalize on transportation and cost efficiencies gained by aggregating forces. (U.S. Air Force photo/ Tech. Sgt. Matthew Plew)
An Israeli F-15I Ra'am assigned to the 69th Squadron launches for a sortie in support of exercise Juniper Falcon May 7, at Uvda Air Base, Israel. Juniper Falcon 17 represents the combination of several bi-lateral component/ Israeli Defense Force exercises that have been executed annually since 2011. These exercises were combined to increase joint training opportunities and capitalize on transportation and cost efficiencies gained by aggregating forces. (U.S. Air Force photo/ Tech. Sgt. Matthew Plew)

Will Israeli air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities spark a larger shooting war between the two belligerent countries?

Any aerial attack by Israel against Iran would be difficult. Israel has no long-range bombers to hit the nuclear sites that are over 1,000 miles away. Jet fighters would require a significant number of bunker-busting bombs that may have limited efficacy. The Israeli jets would need to be re-fueled, and the air force has limited means to conduct these operations (except for re-fashioned 707 tankers). The Israelis would have to fly over Iraqi air space, which is anathema to Baghdad. Plus, the United States does not support Israeli strikes against Iran for fear of sparking a larger war in the region.

Considering all of that, here is what could happen if Israel does decide to strike.

The Strikes May Be Instead Against Iran’s Military Installations and Oil Facilities

Israel may not go after the hardened underground Iranian nuclear infrastructure, opting instead for Tehran’s military installations and oil facilities. Either way, the Iranians will be hopping mad and will conduct a large-scale ballistic missile counter-attack. This tit-for-tat battle with Israeli air strikes followed by the Iranians raining down missiles and drones at Israel is what the United States and Gulf allies fear. There would be no end in sight for the two countries, and it could lead to an all-out war.

Biden Putting the Brakes On the Operation

President Joe Biden is pleading with the Israelis to show restraint to avoid this scenario. The administration would like Israel to chalk up its earlier wins against the Iranians, such as the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. But this is not enough for the Israelis. They want to reach the source of terrorism that enables Hezbollah and Hamas, not simply eliminate militants backed by Tehran in Gaza or Lebanon.

More Endless Wars in the Middle East

The United States recognizes Israel’s right to defend itself, but it is concerned with offensive moves that would trap the two countries into an endless war. Israel believes that Iran will never stop sponsoring terrorism against its people, and it must pay the price.

U.S. Sends Modern Missile Defense System

Knowing the high stakes involved, the United States has come up with a novel solution. The U.S. Department of Defense will send one of its best missile defenders, the Army’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, to supplement the existing Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow defense umbrella that has been so effective over the years. This includes sending Americans to operate THAAD, which is a surprising development since the United States typically does not want to send boots on the ground to Israel, even though there are American defense personnel already in Iraq fighting ISIS and U.S. naval vessels engaging with Houthis in Yemen. The United States is now in for a penny and in for a pound in the Middle East, no matter how much it tries to de-escalate the situation diplomatically.

Trump Is Encouraging Israel to Hit Nuclear Sites in Iran

Former President Donald Trump, running in a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris, is itching for Israel to attack the Iranian nuclear infrastructure. But will that stop or slow down the Iranian nuclear program? Iran is reportedly within months of completing a functioning nuclear device upon command from the Supreme Leader. The Israelis could impede this schedule with successful hits on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, but it may be too late to make a significant difference. Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapon is inevitable. Israel should have attacked these sites years ago and now it appears it is too late to stop the Iranian bomb construction completely.

Could Israel Really Accomplish the Mission?

Israel, however, is confident it could place the Iranian nuclear program in jeopardy. In April, the Israeli air force attacked an “Iranian military site located in close proximity to the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, which hosts nuclear research reactors, a uranium conversion plant, and a fuel production plant, among other facilities,” according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

Netanyahu Needs a Victory

However, Iran would suspect that this site would be a target and would shift its missile defenses and fighter jets to help ward off Israeli attack airplanes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his generals and battle planners may be encouraged to go after Isfahan anyway. Netanyahu needs a decisive win against Iran to show that the Israelis will punish Iranian support for Hamas and Hezbollah. Netanyahu also wants revenge for the stunning October 7, 2023, attacks by Hamas that started all of the upheaval in the first place.

Rock and a Hard Place

Iran’s missile barrages against Israel on April 13 and October 1 has backed Netanyahu into a corner. He cannot lose against Iran, but he doesn’t want to antagonize the United States so much that it would decide against sending the THAAD battery to help protect Israel from a counter-strike. An attack on Iranian nuclear infrastructure would likely require the United States to offer satellite intelligence and re-fueling help – something Biden is loath to provide for fear that Iran could strike American installations in Iraq in return.

Thus, attacking Iranian nuclear targets is a difficult decision for Israel. It may be too late to make a difference, and Iran is likely to eventually acquire a nuclear device that it could mate to a nuclear missile with Israel in range. The United States, under Biden and a Harris presidency, will be against further escalation and all-out war with Iran. But a Trump win could change this calculus, which has Democrats wondering if Netanyahu is wishing for a Trump presidency that would give Bibi the green light to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. This is why Israel may hold back against attacking these sites until after the presidential election in the United States.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

Brent M. Eastwood
Written By

Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Zhduny

    October 16, 2024 at 3:34 pm

    Netanyahu hitting nuclear targets in Iran is pretty much in line with Joe biden’s dream of a world engulfed in big chaos and unspeakable turmoil.

    So, nothing surprising.

    What’s surprising is a nation that elected a man known for seeing AND talking with people known to have already died.

    How did it turn out that way.

    Well, Hitler’s path to WW2 began when his party was elected as the biggest component or block in the reichstag in 1932.

    Much nearer to today’s era, in south Asia, presently, people have mass elected leaders with known ties to highly violent organizations and suspected cold-blooded killers.

    So, biden becoming big leader in Washington and running the world from the white house is perhaps sort of some pretty preordained thing.

    World in chaos and turmoil, just what the doctor ordered.

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