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Iran Could Shatter the Republican Party

A U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress departs after being refueled by KC-135 Stratotanker over the Pacific Northwest July 18, 2024. The 92nd Air Refueling Wing and 141st ARW’s ability to rapidly generate airpower at a moment’s notice was put to the test when Air Mobility Command’s Inspector General team conducted a no-notice Nuclear Operational Readiness Inspection, July 16–18, 2024. During the NORI, Airmen demonstrated how various capabilities at Fairchild AFB enable units to generate and provide, when directed, specially trained and equipped KC-135 Stratotanker aircrews to conduct critical air refueling of U.S. Strategic Command-assigned strategic bomber and command and control aircraft. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Lawrence Sena)
A U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress departs after being refueled by KC-135 Stratotanker over the Pacific Northwest July 18, 2024. The 92nd Air Refueling Wing and 141st ARW’s ability to rapidly generate airpower at a moment’s notice was put to the test when Air Mobility Command’s Inspector General team conducted a no-notice Nuclear Operational Readiness Inspection, July 16–18, 2024. During the NORI, Airmen demonstrated how various capabilities at Fairchild AFB enable units to generate and provide, when directed, specially trained and equipped KC-135 Stratotanker aircrews to conduct critical air refueling of U.S. Strategic Command-assigned strategic bomber and command and control aircraft. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Lawrence Sena)

Key Points – President Donald Trump struck an ambiguous tone on Wednesday regarding a potential US military strike on Iran, stating, “I may do it. I may not do it,” after days of escalatory rhetoric.

-This shift comes as a deep divide emerges within his MAGA coalition over a potential new war.

-The split was highlighted in a viral interview where Tucker Carlson grilled pro-interventionist Senator Ted Cruz on his knowledge of Iran.

-While hawkish conservatives like Sean Hannity and Lindsey Graham support a strike, influential isolationist voices, including Carlson, Steve Bannon, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, are vocally opposing US involvement.

Trump’s Iran Stance Softens to ‘Maybe’ as MAGA Base Splits on War

In recent days, according to both reporting from news outlets and his own Truth Social account, it looked a lot like Donald Trump was preparing to attack Iran and join Israel’s war in that country. He demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran, and even appeared to threaten to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader.

“I’m not looking for a cease-fire. We’re looking at better than a cease-fire,” Trump told reporters over the weekend, indicating that he means a decisive blow against the regime.

Speaking on Wednesday, Trump struck a more ambiguous tone.

According to the New York Times, Trump was noncommittal about a potential attack.

“I may do it,” Trump said, while addressing reporters at the White House. “I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.”

The president added that he believes Iran wants to negotiate, although he also hinted that it’s too late for that.

“Why didn’t you negotiate with me before all this death and destruction?,” Trump told reporters, referencing the talks that took place before Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities. “Why didn’t you negotiate with me two weeks ago? You could have done fine. You would have had a country.”

When asked it it was too late to keep negotiating, Trump answered that “Nothing’s too late.”

TACO on Iran? GOP Split on Iran

Might this be another example of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)? That maxim has traditionally applied to tariffs, rather than military action, but it would be in character for Trump to threaten massive action and then end up delivering something less than that.

In the meantime, there are signs of a major backlash among Trump’s base against the idea of attacking Iran.

This divide was represented this week in a viral moment that came from an interview with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), on the X-hosted talk show of former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

While both men have traditionally been Trump loyalists, aside from times when they haven’t been, they are on opposite sides of this question, with Cruz favoring an attack on Iran and Carlson opposing it.

Per Politico, the exchange came in a preview clip, released Tuesday before the full interview.

Carlson asked Cruz some questions about Iran, including its population and demographic makeup, and the senator made it clear that he didn’t know the answer to either question.

“You don’t know the population of the country you seek to topple?,” Carlson asked Cruz. “How could you not know that?”

While the Texas senator called those questions irrelevant, Carlson continued to press him.

“Well, it’s kind of relevant because you’re calling for the overthrow of the government,” Carlson said, adding that Cruz doesn’t “know anything about the country.”

In another slip, Cruz stated that “we are carrying out military strikes today.” Which, as Carlson pointed out, is either an example of Cruz referring to Israel as “we,” or possibly admitting previously undisclosed U.S. involvement in the strikes that have already happened.

Aside from the embarrassment for Cruz, the exchange put antiwar and anti-Trump liberals in the rare position of agreeing with and cheering on Tucker Carlson.

The GOP Breaking Apart over Iran? 

The Atlantic, this week, went deeper on the story of the MAGA coalition being divided over possible plans to attack Iran. The divide has voices on both sides in both Congress and in the pro-Trump media sphere.

“Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, and other isolationist voices are demanding that Trump stay out of another Middle Eastern war,” Jonathan Lemire and Isaac Stanley-Becker write in The Atlantic.

“Sean Hannity, Mark Levin, and other more hawkish conservatives are making the case that there has never been—and may never again be—a better time to take on Iran.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is among the leaders of the pro-attack side, while Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is among the most vocal leaders opposed to such an action.

About the Author:

Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.

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Stephen Silver
Written By

Stephen Silver is a journalist, essayist, and film critic, who is also a contributor to Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.

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