Is NATO Dead?

Key Points – Despite criticisms from President Trump and strategic debates about prioritizing Asia, NATO remains more vital and relevant than ever for European and US security.

-The alliance has strengthened in response to Russian aggression, welcoming new members (Sweden, Finland) and spurring increased European defense investment.

-A US withdrawal is unlikely and constrained by law. NATO represents the core of European security identity.

-The US possesses the capacity to address threats in both Europe and Asia simultaneously (the “Barbell Strategy”). NATO has an enduring future, potentially including a role in stabilizing post-war Ukraine, continuing its mission of collective defense.

NATO RIP? Not Exactly

Fifteen years ago, I was pondering an article about the future of NATO. The war in Afghanistan was in full swing, and there was some question as to whether the alliance had relevance and the wherewithal for what it was designed to fight: a great power war. For the publisher of my essay, I chose one foreign policy magazine that I will not name. In its submission requirements was a warning – “We do not accept articles about the future of NATO.”

This was a surprise. Maybe there were too many authors wanting to write on this subject or perhaps the publication did not think the topic was important.

Still, it has now taken on a huge significance when it comes to pondering the next ten years in defense strategy for all NATO members.

I’m a NATO Fanboy

I should begin by saying that I am partial and loyal to NATO. The alliance is near and dear to my heart because of past experience. I was once a “Young Leader” who represented the United States at the 2006 NATO Summit in Riga, Latvia. Not only did I get to rub elbows with delegates from all the NATO countries, but I helped produce a work product about military strategy in Afghanistan that was sent to the then NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer. I thought it was great that he would read my recommendations when I was just starting in foreign policy.

The Alliance Lives with Even More Relevance Today

Fast forward to 2025, and I still have an affinity for NATO. Despite much criticism from President Donald Trump and others in the MAGA movement, the alliance is not dead, and the United States will not pull out.

NATO members may never spend five percent of GDP on military spending like Trump wants, but this is not a showstopper, and NATO will live a long life.

The alliance is more important than it has ever been. European members are spending more on defense and investing in modern military hardware. They have supported Ukraine to the best of their ability. The alliance has expanded to include Sweden and Finland. This is a stick in the eye to Vladimir Putin, who wanted to break NATO apart. While membership for Ukraine is a bridge too far, countries like Georgia could someday join giving NATO better representation in the Black Sea region – something that would also irk Putin.

It Is the Basis of European Identity

NATO is Europe, and Europe is NATO. This will never change. Even many in the Republican party in the executive and legislative branches believe this is the case. There are still naysayers in the GOP who believe NATO encourages so-called “globalists” to have outsize influence in U.S. foreign policy. The globalists are sometimes called neoconservatives too, and that term has become a huge insult, according to the America Firsters.

Then there is NATO expansion that some believe forced Putin to invade Ukraine. Potential NATO membership efforts conducted by leadership in Kyiv have always been a red line that was anathema to the Russian dictator. The alliance also turned the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Empire into lost causes and gobbled up its former members.

Despite sending the Russians into a tizzy, the alliance should not be abandoned. NATO is as strong as ever, and I argue it could even survive if the United States pulled out (which is a low probability event).

U.S. Pull-Out Would Require a Congressional Majority

Plus, there is a “Trump-proof” law that was included in a past National Defense Authorization Act that would require a Congressional approval before the United States could unilaterally withdraw from the alliance. This is good policy. The Senate has sway over treaties and the North Atlantic Treaty was one of the most consequential agreements in the history of the country. The legislative branch should have the final say in whether to stay in or out of NATO.

The Movement to Prioritize East Asia

There is another movement afoot that places NATO in doubt. One group of U.S. foreign policy strategists and theorists is the “realism prioritizers or restrainers.” These people believe that the United States should prioritize East Asia and China over Europe and Russia. The Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby, is a leading member of this group. With Colby’s new national security strategy, this could mean removing the American general leading NATO from that post or drawing down U.S. forces in Europe.

This would be a mistake. The United States can and should execute the “Barbell Strategy.” This means addressing both Europe and Asia at the same time. It will certainly be a heavy lift, but the United States can successfully manage the two areas of operations. Trump is calling for more defense spending, and that means there should be enough in the budget (over a trillion dollars) to provide for NATO and the threat of China.

Could NATO Win the Peace Between Russia and Ukraine?

The bigger investment will be the alliance’s role in a just and lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine and helping Kyiv rebuild. There will likely be a Korea-like armistice and DMZ between the two countries. NATO should be a part of that enforcement zone, although Putin would squawk at first. Russian peacekeepers could eventually be part of the group that oversees a peace agreement.

Thus, NATO indeed has an important future. The United States will not pull out. The alliance is not dead, and it is more relevant than ever. I may be biased due to experience, but many in Europe and North America believe that NATO will serve the world with strength, grace, and dignity in the coming decades.

That is just what the original framers of the original North Atlantic Treaty wanted.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.