Key Points and Summary – A new report from the Middle East Eye claims that China has offered to sell its advanced HQ-9 air defense system to Iran, a move that would significantly bolster Tehran’s capabilities after its own systems were decimated by recent Israeli and US strikes.
-While the Chinese embassy has denied the report, calling it “incorrect,” the transfer would make strategic sense for both nations.
-For Russia and China, a re-armed Iran serves as a valuable counterweight to American and Israeli influence in the Middle East. The potential deal highlights the growing military cooperation within the “Axis of Authoritarians.”
A Nightmare for Israel and the US: Is China Secretly Arming Iran?
This “Axis of Authoritarians” grouping is getting tiresome. Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are working together to create global unrest and instability while poking the United States and the West in the eye. The latest mischief attributed to the evil foursome concerns China and Iran.
An initial report earlier this week by an Arab news source called Middle East Eye claimed that Beijing offered air defense systems to Tehran. If true, this is another example of the axis of resistance rearing its head.
China has denied that it made a transfer of arms to Iran, but we can’t trust what comes out of Xi Jinping’s regime. We know that Iran desperately needs surface-to-air missiles. Israel’s air strikes set that program back for years.
The United States snuck into Iranian airspace with no resistance during its successful attack on the country’s nuclear infrastructure. Iran likely believes it is defenseless against enemy air strikes.
China Says, ‘No We Didn’t’
Meanwhile, China is playing the “Who us?” canard with the alleged air defense system deal to Iran. “The embassy finds the contents of the report to be incorrect. As a matter of principle, China firmly opposes the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems, and continuously strengthens its enforcement capabilities regarding non-proliferation,” according to Israel Hayom.
What Are They Hiding?
It is interesting the Chinese have jumped to denying that they play in the sandbox of “non-proliferation.” No one is accusing them of assisting the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This raises the question of just how much China is supporting Iran in general.
There is likely some form of technology transfer that is dual civilian and military use. We just don’t know how far Xi is willing to go. Xi himself has been out of the public eye lately and he did not attend the last BRICS summit – a group of ambitious developing nations that Iran is also a member of.
An embassy spokesman cleared up any insinuation that China transferred arms to Iran. “China never exports weapons to countries engaged in warfare and maintains strict controls on the export of dual-use items. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China upholds a cautious and responsible approach to the export of military-related goods.”
They Are Keeping the Alliance Hush-Hush
But what if the Xi regime does support Iran under the table? China loves to play in the Middle East and North Africa and it has a military support base on Djibouti. It needs oil from Iran and that could mean arming Tehran to keep the energy supplies flowing. Iran supplies the majority of China’s oil. Tehran may have even paid for the surface-to-air missile systems with crude exports.
Beijing does not want Israel and the United States to be able to shape events in the Middle East anytime they want.
Indeed, it seems that Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump are on a hot streak in the region. Iran has lost control of its nuclear program as it has been set back by two years if U.S. Department of Defense reckoning is correct.
Netanyahu’s alliance with Trump is better than ever. The Israeli prime minister even nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
The United States and Israel Are Dominating the Middle East
China is bristling at the strength of this U.S.-Israel alliance. So it would make sense that Xi would want to break it apart and foment more unrest in the Middle East by propping up Iran. To be sure, China could be telling the truth and the charges of air defense transfers could be merely a rumor, but it makes strategic sense.
China’s HQ-9 Air Defenders Are the Answer
Iran has its eyes on the Chinese HQ-9 air defense system that may have destroyed at least one Indian Rafale fighter jet during the India-Pakistan clash earlier this year.
China could always cut loose some of the HQ-9 SAMs in exchange for oil. This would give Iran a sigh of relief as the country is susceptible to another American “bloody nose” strike against its nuclear infrastructure.
The alliance between China and Iran is an example of how both countries want to increase their level of power at the expense of the United States and Israel. China also has a footprint in the Middle East it seeks to expand.
Xi wants to be seen as the leader of the developing world. One way to take this mantle is to transfer weapons systems to allies. This is easy for Xi to do and despite the public denial, one has to wonder just how far China is willing to go to help Iran.
Tehran has nothing to lose and everything to gain with a strategic partnership with Beijing. The Iranians need help to blunt the Americans and Israelis who are gaining more power in the region. Iran must stop the bleeding as it has been weakened greatly.
It is important for the international community to keep an eye on Iran and China and their burgeoning alliance. Maybe China is innocent regarding the latest accusation of the air defense transfer, but all signs point to more cooperation between Xi and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This is an important relationship that will continue to grow. Both countries need each other to increase geopolitical power and they are likely working together militarily in some way.
The United States and Israel must keep the axis of resistance in mind as they execute their Middle East strategy.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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Jim
July 10, 2025 at 1:57 pm
China has every reason to want to help Iran.
A significant amount of their oil imports are from Iran. In 2024 the percentage was roughly 14% of the total oil imports of China.
That’s reason enough, but there is more, China’s Belt & road initiative has plans to have a transportation corridor from North to South through Iran, this helps Russia, too, and there is already a direct rail route from Western China into Iran.
Few Western analysts take this Belt & Road transportation corridor into account in their commentary on China’s and Russia’s interests in Iran.
Interestingly enough, Iran has been reluctant to accept military help and up to now hasn’t engaged in large military purchases from Russia or China.
Given the 12 day war and the U. S. bombing raid, Iran may reconsider its reluctance to have military entanglements with Russia and China.
Finally, all this does is push Iran into Russian and Chinese arms when their basic instincts are to be sovereign & independent… not dependent on outside powers.
This is a corollary to the fact United States actions have pushed Russia and China together violating Kissinger’s dictum of keeping the two nations separated and apart and it also violates a much earlier dictum of Mackinder who wrote of the “World Island” and the importance of keeping Russia & China from dominating said “World Island.”
Yet, all of recent United States foreign policy has resulted in the opposite, pushing Russia & China together.
Is it arrogance & hubris which lead to such disastrous results or just plain stupidity?
I’d like to know.
Ss749
July 10, 2025 at 3:26 pm
Interesting analysis! A country selling missile defense systems to another country is something that “the intentional community should keep an eye on”!
Maybe the intentional community must keep an eye on the country that per ICC and ICJ has committed genocide? Or maybe the international community should keep an eye on a country that is the only country ever dumb enough to drop a nuclear bomb on cities?! Just saying.