After slowly trending upwards following the signing of the June memorandum of understanding (MOU), commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz once again slowed on Friday, July 10.
Despite a small number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil tankers passing through the waterway, traffic appears to be stalling once again as commercial shipping companies and insurers anticipate yet more military strikes.
President Donald Trump participates in a welcome line at Qasr Al Watan in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, Thursday, May 15, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
The decline follows another week of exchanges between the U.S. and Iran, as well as additional strikes against Iranian targets by Gulf states.
While the Strait technically remains open, Tehran continues to target ships transiting Omani waters.
Shipping companies and insurers assess that the Strait remains a high-risk operating environment, and until a new deal is signed and Iran proves it will not continue launching strikes against commercial vessels, traffic could remain limited for some time.
Tankers Are Moving, But Traffic Is Falling
Ship-tracking data show that several vessels have continued to enter and leave the Strait in recent days, despite ongoing strikes, suggesting that commercial navigation may not be at risk of stalling completely.
Maritime tracking companies LSEG and Kpler have published data showing that at least five ballast LNG carriers entered the Strait over the last several days.
Among them were the GasLog Shanghai and four QatarEnergy-linked vessels: Al Samriya, Al Dafna, Al Gattara, and Al Rayyan.
A Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), Nissos Kea, also entered the Strait on Thursday, while another VLCC, Lila Vadinar, departed the Gulf.
Regardless, overall traffic has weakened noticeably.
According to Kpler’s analysis, only 10 LNG and crude tankers were observed transiting the Strait on Thursday, down from 14 the previous day and 22 on Monday.
Although daily movements began to recover after the peak of the conflict earlier in the year, current traffic remains dramatically below pre-war levels.
Before the fighting began in February, between 125 and 140 vessels typically crossed the Strait each day.
Over the past two weeks, the average has recovered to roughly 40 per day, which is still less than one-third of normal commercial activity.
Japan Has Moved Its Fleet Out
Another sign that confidence in the Strait of Hormuz is once again deteriorating is the sudden withdrawal of all Japanese commercial shipping in the region.
While several regional Japan-linked vessels have transited the waterway in recent days carrying crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), shipping data suggest that most of Japan’s merchant fleet has now departed the Gulf rather than waiting for conditions to improve.
According to reports, only four Japan-linked vessels remain in the Gulf, down from approximately 45 ships stranded there earlier in the conflict.
The number of Japanese seafarers in the region has also fallen significantly, from around 1,100 crew members to just about 100, with ship operators now repositioning their vessels to avoid exposure to new Iranian attacks.
Japan’s transport ministry has declined to discuss any of its specific security measures, citing operational concerns – but the exodus is clearly visible.
The United Nations Pushes Back
The ongoing battle over control of the Strait of Hormuz escalated again on Friday, July 10, after the governing council of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Nations agency responsible for international shipping, formally rejected Iran’s latest attempt to assert control over navigation through the waterway.
According to a document seen by Reuters, the IMO’s council condemned Tehran’s decision to establish a new body intended to oversee maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
The council called on member states to reject Iran’s claims of sovereignty over the international waterway or any measures that interfere with the right of international ships to navigate through the Strait.
It is one of the strongest international responses to Tehran’s efforts to control the Strait so far, though it is unlikely to move Tehran.
The news also comes after Oman informed the United Nations that it opposes the introduction of transit fees for shipping companies using the Strait of Hormuz.
Ships Are Becoming Harder to Track
The latest shipping figures certainly show that traffic is falling, but it’s important to note that the figures may not be as accurate as they once were.
Over the past several months, analysts have observed an increasing number of commercial vessels switching off their transponders and passing through the Strait of Hormuz without being officially monitored.
It means that many commercial vessels are simply disappearing from publicly available tracking data – thereby making the official data less reliable.
Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders, when switched on, continuously broadcast a vessel’s identity, speed, position, and course, allowing those ships to be tracked in real time by maritime authorities and commercial monitoring services.
While the likes of Kpler and LSEG continue to monitor traffic using satellite imagery and other maritime intelligence, ships operating with their AIS systems switched off are much harder to track, contributing to confusion over just how many ships are moving through the strait every day.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
