Key Points – As President Donald Trump heads to the NATO summit in The Hague, the question of a potential US withdrawal from the alliance looms large, though it’s unlikely to happen.
-While Trump has historically been critical of NATO, demanding members increase defense spending, and has privately suggested leaving, a 2023 law now prevents a president from unilaterally withdrawing without Congressional approval.
-Nonetheless, a recent analysis by Bloomberg’s Hal Brands argues the alliance has “never been this close” to collapse, facing crises of Russian aggression, a lack of preparation, and shifting US priorities, which threaten its long-term credibility and stability.
NATO On the Brink?
When President Donald Trump, on Tuesday, railed against Israel and Iran for breaking their ceasefire, he was preparing to get onto Marine One, on the way to attend the NATO summit in The Hague.
The summit comes at an uncertain time for NATO, especially at this stage of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Trump heads to the summit as NATO members have agreed to up their defense spending commitments to five percent of GDP, Fox News reported.
Trump has had an often contentious relationship with NATO over the years, and part of that has been his demand that the other NATO members increase their military spending.
However, Spain has asked for an exemption from the agreement.
“This summit is really about NATO’s credibility, and we are urging all of our Allies to step up to the plate and pay their fair share for transatlantic security,” U.S. NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker said, per Fox News.
Would Trump Quit NATO?
In his first term, the New York Times reported in 2019, Trump privately suggested a U.S. exit from NATO, which would strip the organization of much of its authority and credibility.
“Senior administration officials told The New York Times that several times over the course of 2018, Mr. Trump privately said he wanted to withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization,” the Times reported in 2019. “Current and former officials who support the alliance said they feared Mr. Trump could return to his threat as allied military spending continued to lag behind the goals the president had set.”
Trump did not withdraw from NATO during his first term. He talked about doing it again after he was elected to a second term in a December interview with Meet the Press.
“If they’re paying their bills, and if I think they’re treating us fairly, the answer is absolutely I’d stay with NATO,” Trump said in that interview.
No Easy Exit
However, per the National Defense Authorization Act in 2023, presidents are prohibited from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO.
Doing so would require an act of Congress, requiring a two-thirds majority in the U.S. Senate.
One of the sponsors of that resolution was then-Sen. Marco Rubio is now Trump’s Secretary of State.
That resolution, under consideration for the previous few years, passed after Trump began running for president.
In February, Vice President JD Vance delivered critical comments about NATO during a speech in Munich.
The other nations agreeing to up their spending commitments, as well as the Congressional action, would seem to indicate that a withdrawal from NATO by the U.S. isn’t likely anytime soon.
But that doesn’t mean, however, that NATO isn’t still facing trouble.
Close to Collapse?
According to a Bloomberg News analysis, published ahead of the summit in the Netherlands, “NATO Has Dodged Collapse Before. It’s Never Been This Close.”
Hal Brands, a Bloomberg columnist who is also the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, argues that while U.S. presidents have been skeptical of the NATO alliance in the past, Trump has taken it to another level.
“NATO is truly the most successful standing alliance in history. But it has been tested, repeatedly and severely, along the way,” Brands writes. He also runs through various times in history, from the Suez crisis in the 1950s to the Iraq War.
NATO, per Brands, is currently facing four big crises: Russia’s “serial aggression in the East,” “a crisis of preparation,” “shifting priorities,” and issues with credibility.
“For some NATO skeptics, that outcome wouldn’t be so bad: They hope that a US departure might force Europe to get its act together and become an equal partner in defense of the democratic world,” Brands writes. “In reality, a Europe that no longer enjoys US protection wouldn’t be as accommodating of US interests, on issues from dollar dominance to the security of the Western Pacific. And the reason that US officials never walked away from the alliance, is that doing so could be disastrous for everyone involved.”
About the Author:
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
More Fighters
China’s J-20 Stealth Fighter Looks Like a Powerhouse
China’s White Emperor Space Fighter Looks Fake
China’s Aircraft Carriers Have Arrived (Just Not Nuclear Carriers)
