Alliances are an important part of grand strategy, and Vladimir Putin has forged new relationships among malign actors that have formed an axis of evil that will be a factor into the 2030s and beyond.
These aggressive anti-Western countries are flexing their muscles. Look no further than North Korea. Kim Jong Un knows that he has friends in Moscow. Putin loves that Pyongyang has sent more than 13,000 North Korean troops to fight against Ukraine in Kursk.
North Korea Artillery. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
North Korea Frigate from KCNA. Image Credit: North Korean State Media.
Kim may even visit Moscow soon.
His foreign minister has recently met counterparts in Russia.
This renewed diplomatic push has strategists wondering if the new alliance can help Putin better prosecute the war and if Russia can assist the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s struggle against its southern enemy.
Match Made in Hell
North Korea is ecstatic about the arrangement. There are easily many more thousands of troops available to fight in Ukraine, even if they are no more than cannon fodder.
The DPRK can continue providing howitzer shells for Putin’s artillery. Russia offers North Korea military technology for drones and ballistic missiles.
Moscow has plenty of oil and gas that can be sent to the DPRK along with hard currency and food.
Diplomacy Gets a Boost
North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui and her Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov have formed close ties.
This is an important step to create the runway for Kim and Putin to have a summit. The West will be alarmed by the overt display of friendship between the two dictators.
“The DPRK side expressed invariable support for all the internal and external policies of the Russian Federation to eliminate the root cause of the Ukrainian dispute and defend its national sovereignty, territorial integrity and international justice,” state media outlet KCNA said as noted by AFP.
Pyongyang’s propaganda organs claimed the two countries “reaffirmed their steadfast political will to accelerate the long-term multi-faceted development of the bilateral relations.”
Russia is siding with North Korea in its cold war against South Korea. This is sure to give Seoul another strategic problem to worry about.
The Symbolism Is Readily Apparent
North Korea’s Choe laid a commemorative wreath at Russia’s Tomb of the Unknown Soldier during her visit. This imagery was trumpeted by state media in both countries.
The symbolism is clear.
Both countries are forging a two-pronged effort to undermine the West and assist in warfare.
“I would like once again to express my gratitude for the support provided to the special military operation we are conducting,” Putin said in a news release from the Kremlin on July 19, AFP reported.
China is Part of the Arrangement Too
Meanwhile, China has enhanced its ties with North Korea.
The two countries have been major trade partners for decades, and Pyongyang depends on Beijing to sustain a “fear state” that places a dark cloud of tyranny and oppression on ordinary North Koreans.
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean analysis at Ewha Womans University, said that this would be a renewed North Korea-China-Russia alignment.
The Alignment Helps North Korea’s Penchant for a Fear State
This plays right into North Korean “juche” self-reliance governing philosophy in which the supreme leader is treated like a god by the people.
North Korea is always looking for reinforcement of its totalitarian regime. More public diplomacy is great fodder for the propaganda mill, and it shows that Kim Jong Un is an enduring global statesman.
One area that Kim and Putin will discuss is both countries’ nuclear weapons programs.
North Korea yearns to get more technological support for its ballistic missiles and submarine-launched projectiles. Russia is also likely to offer intelligence support to the DPRK.
In exchange, Kim could send more troops to Russia for the meatgrinder at the front.
Improving the DPRK’s Fiscal Situation
Russia and North Korea could partner on economic development projects too. There could also be old-fashioned monetary support that the DPRK desperately needs for its coffers.
Kim loves time in the spotlight, and a summit with Putin is irresistible. Look for this to be celebrated to great fanfare in North Korea.
The Russian president can send the message that the alliance between the two countries is as strong as ever and that the partnership is a stick in the eye to the West.
Coalition Equation
The alliance between Russia and North Korea checks all the boxes of what I call the “Coalition Equation” for strategic development.
This is annotated by the acronym “DIME-PT” that stands for diplomacy, intelligence, military, economics, politics, and technology. All of these dimensions are a part of the alliance.
China and Iran also form the coalition equation with North Korea and Russia. This is the essence of grand strategy.
The world is wondering if this evil axis will grow in power.
As long as each country continues to improve the DIME-PT coalition equation, this malign alliance is liable to reach a crescendo with wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East growing worse over time.
North Korea has nothing to lose and everything to gain with a partnership with China, Russia, and Iran.
Kim basks in the attention, and a summit with Putin is sure to improve his standing among his own people.
Expect more diplomatic inroads with this evil partnership. The alliance is only getting stronger, and the coalition equation will be difficult for the West to crack.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
