The recent North Korea–China summit highlights Beijing’s increasing concern over Moscow’s growing influence in Pyongyang. Since the Ukraine war began, Russia and North Korea have dramatically deepened ties, with Russia receiving artillery shells, missiles, and military supplies, and North Korea receiving food, cash, military tech, and diplomatic support. Still, China and Russia remain strategic partners—but both are increasingly vying for influence over North Korea, one of the world’s most unpredictable regimes.
China’s Concern
Russian Mobile ICBM Nuclear Weapons. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Historically, China has been North Korea’s indispensable partner. Beijing consistently served as North Korea’s largest trading partner, largest energy supplier, and diplomatic protector.
But Russia has changed the equation, as the war in Ukraine has created enormous demand for ammunition, making North Korea suddenly very useful to Moscow.
In exchange for ammunition, Russia reportedly has provided North Korea with military know-how, missile assistance, satellite-related cooperation, and economic support.
This increasing dependence between Russia and North Korea is concerning to China, which recognizes that a stronger North Korea is not necessarily beneficial to China’s interests. China wants to maintain North Korea as a stable buffer state; China does not want an emboldened, capable North Korea—unpredictable as ever—right on its border.
Russian Relations
The relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang is transactional and urgent, driven by immediate wartime needs. North Korea gives Russia massive amounts of conventional munitions.
Hwasong-20 ICBM. Image Credit: North Korea State Media.
Specifically, Pyongyang has shipped millions of 152mm artillery shells and short-range ballistic missiles (KN-23/24) to replenish the stockpiles Russia has exhausted in Ukraine.
North Korea also sent Russia thousands of combat troops, who were used to support front-line operations in Russian border regions. And critically, thousands of North Korean laborers have been sent into Russia to help fill a severe workforce deficit.
In return, Russia is most likely providing military technology, i.e., high-tech blueprints, satellite launch telemetry, advanced nuclear submarine propulsion data, and assistance with ICBM re-entry vehicles. Russia also bypasses international embargoes to ship thousands of tons of grain, livestock, and raw, unrefined petroleum directly to North Korean ports.
Leveraging the Economy
Russia is exerting military leverage to gain influence over North Korea, but China still has economic leverage. China accounts for more than 90 percent of North Korea’s external trade, meaning China can influence fuel supplies, machinery imports, industrial goods, and border trade.
Indeed, much of North Korea’s commerce flows through the Chinese border, so China is vital for keeping the North Korean economy functioning. The economic benefits aren’t just short-term but long-term; China can offer development assistance, too, in the form of infrastructure projects, rail modernization, industrial investment, and special economic zones.
Treading Lightly
China has a delicate situation on its border. The nightmare scenario, from Beijing’s perspective, is a North Korean collapse.
This would cause a humanitarian crisis, with a flow of refugees into China and possible instability along the border. Even worse, perhaps, would be an isolated North Korea, provocative and conducting missile tests, nuclear tests, initiating military confrontations with South Korea, and generally destabilizing the region. Such destabilization would possibly prompt the US to deploy troops to Asia, something Beijing wants to avoid.
The US Perspective
The US does not necessarily benefit from Chinese–Russian competition over North Korea, because both powers are helping North Korea to survive. With assistance from both China and Russia, sanctions against North Korea have become less effective, mitigating one of the US’s primary tools of coercion. And instead of relying on a single patron, North Korea can now play two patrons against one another.
The more that Beijing and Moscow compete for influence, the more leverage Kim acquires.
Moving Forward
North Korea will likely balance the influence of China and Russia, accepting Chinese economic support and Russian military assistance simultaneously while avoiding complete dependence on either. The plan would be consistent with North Korea’s long-standing strategy of exploiting divisions among large powers.
North Korea is benefiting from the fact that China increasingly views it not just as a buffer state but as a geopolitical asset that warrants careful management. Accordingly, China will work to establish itself as the Kim regime’s primary long-term trading partner.
About the Author: Harrison Kass
Harrison Kass is a writer and attorney focused on national security, technology, and political culture. His work has appeared in City Journal, The Hill, Quillette, The Spectator, and The Cipher Brief. He holds a JD from the University of Oregon and a master’s in Global & Joint Program Studies from NYU. More at harrisonkass.com.
